XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Scotiabank upgraded Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform, raising its price target to $145 from $129, representing 12.4% upside from the prior target. The upgrade is part of a seven-firm cluster action on XOM, though Scotiabank's 50% accuracy on 6 calls is below average among covering firms. Consensus on XOM is moderately bullish: 16 of 31 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell. The mean price target of $169.91 implies 17.0% upside from the current price of $145.26, placing Scotiabank's $145 target well below consensus. EPS revisions have been trending higher — 30-day revisions up 15 vs 7 down for the current fiscal year — supporting positive momentum. A single insider sale of $168K in March is non-informative. Institutional activity is mixed: Two Sigma doubled its position while Renaissance Technologies nearly exited. Short interest at 61.7% of TRF volume is elevated, suggesting potential squeeze risk. Bottom line: Scotiabank's below-consensus target and below-average track record limit the signal's conviction, but the upgrade aligns with improving EPS revisions and a generally bullish analyst backdrop.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus: 6 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — total 31 analysts. Direction is moderately bullish, with 52% Buy/Strong Buy and 45% Hold.
Current price: $145.26. Mean target: $169.91 (17.0% upside). Median: $172.50. High: $185. Low: $130. Scotiabank's $145 target is below the mean and median, ranking near the low end of the range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $175.00 |
| 2026-05-26 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $182.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Bernstein | maintain | Outperform | $182.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Sector Perform | $180.00 |
| 2026-05-04 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $174.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Scotiabank | maintain | Sector Outperform | $163.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wolfe Research | downgrade | Peer Perform | — |
| 2026-04-17 | BNP Paribas | upgrade | Neutral | $165.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $171.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $172.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: 15 up vs 7 down for current fiscal year; 17 up vs 5 down for next fiscal year. Estimates are being revised higher across all periods.
Firm Track Record — Scotiabank
Scotiabank accuracy: 56% on 1496 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 100% | 2/2 | 4.7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 100% | 2/2 | 17.4% | top tier |
| HSBC | 100% | 2/2 | 3.9% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 86% | 6/7 | 7.8% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 75% | 6/8 | 5.8% | top tier |
| Barclays | 71% | 5/7 | 0.7% | top tier |
| UBS | 70% | 7/10 | 3.6% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 63% | 5/8 | 4.3% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 50% | 3/6 | 4.9% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 2/4 | 5.7% | below average |
Scotiabank: 50% accuracy on 6 calls, avg return 4.9% — below average vs peers. Best firms: JP Morgan (100% on 2 calls, avg return 4.7%), B of A Securities (100% on 2, avg 17.4%), HSBC (100% on 2, avg 3.9%). Worst: Truist Securities (20% on 5, avg -2.7%), RBC Capital (43% on 7, avg -1.5%).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $11.24 | $7.91 — $16.37 | $402.9B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.45 | $2.45 — $4.70 | $101.6B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $3.72 | $2.26 — $5.78 | $104.2B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $10.65 | $7.55 — $14.49 | $380.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: one sell of $168K by Talley Darrin L on 2026-03-16 — non-informative (small, single, likely liquidity). Congressional trades: none. Institutional: Two Sigma doubled position (+318.2%, $47.3M); Norges Bank new $7.6B position; Renaissance Technologies near-exit (-99.6%). Short interest: 61.7% of TRF volume — elevated, signaling potential squeeze risk. Mixed institutional signals but no strong divergence from the bullish analyst view.
Actionable Insight
Scotiabank's upgrade adds to a bullish consensus but its below-consensus target and below-average track record limit conviction. Traders should view this as a mild positive, not a catalyst — focus on the improving EPS revision trend and elevated short interest for tactical positioning.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 31, 2026
12d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $123.09 $120.33 | ▼ −2.24% | ▼ −3.32% | $147.01 (+19.44%) |
|
May 26, 2026
17d ago
|
DEFA14A
| $148.00 $152.62 | ▲ +3.12% | ▲ +2.65% | $147.01 (−0.67%) |
|
May 17, 2026
26d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $146.34 $148.90 | ▲ +1.75% | ▲ +1.19% | $147.01 (+0.46%) |
|
May 15, 2026
28d ago
|
DEFA14A
| $157.91 $154.79 | ▼ −1.98% | ▼ −2.94% | $147.01 (−6.90%) |
|
May 12, 2026
4w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $150.56 $160.49 | ▲ +6.60% | ▲ +6.52% | $147.01 (−2.36%) |
|
May 8, 2026
5w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $144.39 $152.78 | ▲ +5.81% | ▲ +4.35% | $147.01 (+1.82%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
8-K
| $154.53 $150.56 | ▼ −2.57% | ▼ −4.55% | $147.01 (−4.86%) |
|
Apr 17, 2026
8w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $146.34 $148.91 | ▲ +1.76% | ▲ +1.20% | $147.01 (+0.46%) |
|
Apr 9, 2026
9w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $154.99 $151.86 | ▼ −2.02% | ▼ −5.21% | $147.01 (−5.15%) |
|
Apr 8, 2026
9w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $154.99 $151.86 | ▼ −2.02% | ▼ −5.21% | $147.01 (−5.15%) |
US Market Status
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