XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP

BULLISH Impact: 1/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 12d 22h ago SEC analyst-XOM-scotiaba-20241010
7 firms acted on XOM: Freedom Broker, Wells Fargo, Melius Research, Scotiabank, Exane BNP Paribas, Redburn Atlantic, Truist Securities
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
XOM ▼ -11.75% at T+60d
LONG call ✗ call lost -11.75% · α vs SPY -13.93% · entry $123.09 → $108.63
Currently $147.01 · +19.44% from $123.09 entry
Entry anchored
Oct 10, 08:52 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+0.44%
call +0.44% · α -0.16%
$123.63
settled 20mo ago
T+5d
-2.24%
call -2.24% · α -3.32%
$120.33
settled 20mo ago
T+20d
-1.64%
call -1.64% · α -5.02%
$121.07
settled 19mo ago
T+60d
-11.75%
call -11.75% · α -13.93%
$108.63
settled 17mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Scotiabank upgraded Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform, raising its price target to $145 from $129, representing 12.4% upside from the prior target. The upgrade is part of a seven-firm cluster action on XOM, though Scotiabank's 50% accuracy on 6 calls is below average among covering firms. Consensus on XOM is moderately bullish: 16 of 31 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell. The mean price target of $169.91 implies 17.0% upside from the current price of $145.26, placing Scotiabank's $145 target well below consensus. EPS revisions have been trending higher — 30-day revisions up 15 vs 7 down for the current fiscal year — supporting positive momentum. A single insider sale of $168K in March is non-informative. Institutional activity is mixed: Two Sigma doubled its position while Renaissance Technologies nearly exited. Short interest at 61.7% of TRF volume is elevated, suggesting potential squeeze risk. Bottom line: Scotiabank's below-consensus target and below-average track record limit the signal's conviction, but the upgrade aligns with improving EPS revisions and a generally bullish analyst backdrop.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
+0
Final Score
1/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
16 (52%)
Hold
14
Sell / Strong Sell
1
Total Analysts
22
Mean PT
$169.91
Median PT
$172.50
High PT
$185.00
Low PT
$130.00
Current Price
$145.26
Implied Upside
+17%

Consensus: 6 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 14 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — total 31 analysts. Direction is moderately bullish, with 52% Buy/Strong Buy and 45% Hold.

Current price: $145.26. Mean target: $169.91 (17.0% upside). Median: $172.50. High: $185. Low: $130. Scotiabank's $145 target is below the mean and median, ranking near the low end of the range.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-27 Mizuho maintain Neutral $175.00
2026-05-26 Barclays maintain Overweight $182.00
2026-05-11 Bernstein maintain Outperform $182.00
2026-05-05 RBC Capital reiterate Sector Perform $180.00
2026-05-04 UBS maintain Buy $174.00
2026-04-22 Scotiabank maintain Sector Outperform $163.00
2026-04-21 Wolfe Research downgrade Peer Perform
2026-04-17 BNP Paribas upgrade Neutral $165.00
2026-04-17 Morgan Stanley maintain Overweight $171.00
2026-04-10 TD Cowen maintain Buy $172.00

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: 15 up vs 7 down for current fiscal year; 17 up vs 5 down for next fiscal year. Estimates are being revised higher across all periods.

Firm Track Record — Scotiabank

Scotiabank accuracy: 56% on 1496 calls | avg return: 4.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
JP Morgan 100% 2/2 4.7% top tier
B of A Securities 100% 2/2 17.4% top tier
HSBC 100% 2/2 3.9% top tier
Piper Sandler 86% 6/7 7.8% top tier
Wells Fargo 75% 6/8 5.8% top tier
Barclays 71% 5/7 0.7% top tier
UBS 70% 7/10 3.6% top tier
Mizuho 63% 5/8 4.3% top tier
Scotiabank 50% 3/6 4.9% below average
Morgan Stanley 50% 2/4 5.7% below average

Scotiabank: 50% accuracy on 6 calls, avg return 4.9% — below average vs peers. Best firms: JP Morgan (100% on 2 calls, avg return 4.7%), B of A Securities (100% on 2, avg 17.4%), HSBC (100% on 2, avg 3.9%). Worst: Truist Securities (20% on 5, avg -2.7%), RBC Capital (43% on 7, avg -1.5%).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0y $11.24 $7.91 — $16.37 $402.9B ↑4 ↓0
+1q $3.45 $2.45 — $4.70 $101.6B ↑2 ↓0
0q $3.72 $2.26 — $5.78 $104.2B ↑2 ↓0
+1y $10.65 $7.55 — $14.49 $380.1B ↑2 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 1 sells
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — doubled (318.2%)
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — exit (-100%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Short Interest
Short: 3,887,226 | Exempt: 9,160 | TRF Vol: 6,297,296 | Short Ratio: 61.7% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trades: one sell of $168K by Talley Darrin L on 2026-03-16 — non-informative (small, single, likely liquidity). Congressional trades: none. Institutional: Two Sigma doubled position (+318.2%, $47.3M); Norges Bank new $7.6B position; Renaissance Technologies near-exit (-99.6%). Short interest: 61.7% of TRF volume — elevated, signaling potential squeeze risk. Mixed institutional signals but no strong divergence from the bullish analyst view.

Actionable Insight

Scotiabank's upgrade adds to a bullish consensus but its below-consensus target and below-average track record limit conviction. Traders should view this as a mild positive, not a catalyst — focus on the improving EPS revision trend and elevated short interest for tactical positioning.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

13 reports for XOM
Performance horizon
Filters
Rows
Reports for XOM — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 31, 2026
12d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 1/10
$123.09 $120.33▼ −2.24%▼ −3.32%$147.01 (+19.44%)
May 26, 2026
17d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$148.00 $152.62▲ +3.12%▲ +2.65%$147.01 (−0.67%)
May 17, 2026
26d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$146.34 $148.90▲ +1.75%▲ +1.19%$147.01 (+0.46%)
May 15, 2026
28d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$157.91 $154.79▼ −1.98%▼ −2.94%$147.01 (−6.90%)
May 12, 2026
4w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$150.56 $160.49▲ +6.60%▲ +6.52%$147.01 (−2.36%)
May 8, 2026
5w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$144.39 $152.78▲ +5.81%▲ +4.35%$147.01 (+1.82%)
May 4, 2026
5w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$154.53 $150.56▼ −2.57%▼ −4.55%$147.01 (−4.86%)
Apr 17, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$146.34 $148.91▲ +1.76%▲ +1.20%$147.01 (+0.46%)
Apr 9, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$154.99 $151.86▼ −2.02%▼ −5.21%$147.01 (−5.15%)
Apr 8, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$154.99 $151.86▼ −2.02%▼ −5.21%$147.01 (−5.15%)
Showing 10 of 13

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (45h 30m)

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