VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
On December 10, 2025, Scotiabank downgraded VTMX from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, a neutral rating, without issuing a new price target. The move is contrarian given the overwhelming bullish consensus – 19 of 22 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with only one Sell. Scotiabank's accuracy on 1,496 rated stocks is 56%, slightly above the peer average among the five firms covering VTMX. The current price of $36.38 sits almost exactly at the consensus mean target of $36.48, implying negligible upside. However, EPS revisions are uniformly negative: all four periods (current quarter, current year, next year, next quarter) show one downward revision in the last 30 days, with no upward revisions. Institutional activity reveals a mixed picture – FMR LLC and Morgan Stanley trimmed positions while Bank of America added – but net selling pressure dominates by value. The downgrade aligns with these deteriorating fundamentals, yet the broader analyst community remains firmly bullish, creating a significant divergence. For traders, the Scotiabank downgrade adds weight to the bearish undercurrent beneath a seemingly bullish surface.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
The consensus comprises 5 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell out of 22 analysts – a heavily bullish tilt of 86% Buy-equivalent ratings. Only one analyst (Goldman Sachs) holds a Sell rating, with a $21 price target. The direction is overwhelmingly positive, making Scotiabank's downgrade a distinct outlier.
The mean price target is $36.48, median $37.30, high $41, low $30. At the current price of $36.38, the implied upside to the mean is just +0.3%. Scotiabank did not provide a new target, so its view sits below the consensus by virtue of the downgrade alone. The low target of $30 likely corresponds to Goldman Sachs' Sell rating.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | — |
| 2025-12-17 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $39.00 |
| 2025-12-10 | Scotiabank | downgrade | Sector Perform | — |
| 2025-11-20 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $40.00 |
| 2025-09-15 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $35.00 |
| 2025-07-29 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $38.00 |
| 2025-07-18 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $36.00 |
| 2025-06-23 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $37.00 |
| 2025-03-25 | Goldman Sachs | downgrade | Sell | $21.00 |
| 2025-03-06 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $34.00 |
In the 30-day period, there has been 1 downgrade (Scotiabank) and 0 upgrades. EPS revisions are uniformly negative: the current quarter, current year, next year, and next quarter each show 1 downward revision and 0 upward revisions over the last 30 days. Estimates for next year have declined from $2.4681 to $2.4556, and current year from $2.359 to $2.273. The revision trend is clearly lower.
Firm Track Record — Scotiabank
Scotiabank accuracy: 56% on 1496 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 3 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 100% | 3/3 | 8.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 71% | 5/7 | 3.2% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | 4.8% | below average |
Scotiabank has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,496 scored calls with an average return of 4.4%. Among firms covering VTMX, UBS (100% on 3 calls) and Barclays (71% on 7) show higher accuracy but on very small samples; Goldman Sachs (50% on 2) is below average. Scotiabank's large sample size gives it more statistical weight despite the modest accuracy.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $0.57 | $0.57 — $0.57 | $1.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $2.27 | $2.27 — $2.27 | $5.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $2.46 | $2.12 — $2.79 | $6.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.59 | $0.59 — $0.59 | $1.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades and congressional activity are absent. Institutional filings show FMR LLC trimming 30.9% ($49.5M), Morgan Stanley trimming 33.6% ($3.5M) and 64.5% ($4.9M), while Bank of America added 91.6% ($8.6M) and 28.1% ($4.2M). Net institutional selling totals roughly $44.4M, aligning with the bearish analyst action and downward EPS revisions. This convergence reinforces the negative signal from the downgrade.
Actionable Insight
The Scotiabank downgrade, combined with deteriorating EPS estimates and institutional selling, suggests fading the bullish consensus. Traders should consider reducing long exposure or hedging near the $36.38 level, given the lack of upside to the mean target and mounting bearish signals.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 10, 2026
4d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $33.76 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (+1.69%) |
|
Jun 6, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $30.73 $30.94 | ▲ +0.68% | ▲ +0.46% | $34.33 (+11.72%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
9d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $33.64 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (+2.05%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
10d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $33.81 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (−1.54%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
6-K
| $33.81 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (−1.54%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.00 $33.82 | ▼ −0.53% | ▲ +2.07% | $34.33 (+0.97%) |
|
Jun 3, 2026
11d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.57 $34.00 | ▼ −1.65% | ▼ −2.05% | $34.33 (−0.69%) |
|
Jun 2, 2026
12d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.57 $34.00 | ▼ −1.65% | ▼ −2.05% | $34.33 (−0.69%) |
|
Jun 1, 2026
13d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.89 $34.57 | ▼ −0.92% | ▼ −0.20% | $34.33 (−1.61%) |
|
May 29, 2026
16d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.70 $34.89 | ▼ −0.55% | ▼ −0.39% | $34.33 (+1.07%) |
US Market Status
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