VTMX Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
VTMX (Vesta Real Estate Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V.) received a downgrade from Scotiabank to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform on December 10, 2025, with no price target provided. The action is part of a cluster of three firms acting on the stock, including Goldman Sachs which downgraded VTMX to Sell with a $21 target in March 2025. Consensus remains heavily bullish with 17 of 20 analysts at Buy or Strong Buy, a mean target of $36.76 implying 8.1% upside from the current $34. Scotiabank has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,496 calls with a 4.4% average return, placing it below top-tier firms like UBS (100% on 3 calls) and Barclays (71% on 7 calls). EPS estimates have seen one downward revision in the last 30 days across multiple periods, signaling slight negative momentum. Insider selling has been heavy, with five executives selling over $925K in late May to early June 2026, diverging from the bullish consensus. The downgrade is a contrarian signal against a strong buy-heavy consensus, but Scotiabank's below-average accuracy tempers its significance.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 5 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 20 analysts. The direction is strongly positive, with 85% of analysts at Buy or Strong Buy. Scotiabank's downgrade to Sector Perform aligns with the minority hold/sell camp.
Current price is $34. Mean target is $36.76 (8.1% upside), median $39 (14.7% upside), high $41 (20.6% upside), low $29 (14.7% downside). Scotiabank did not provide a price target, so its view sits below the consensus mean and median. The wide range from $29 to $41 indicates significant disagreement among analysts.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | — |
| 2025-12-17 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $39.00 |
| 2025-12-10 | Scotiabank | downgrade | Sector Perform | — |
| 2025-11-20 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $40.00 |
| 2025-09-15 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $35.00 |
| 2025-07-29 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $38.00 |
| 2025-07-18 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $36.00 |
| 2025-06-23 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $37.00 |
| 2025-03-25 | Goldman Sachs | downgrade | Sell | $21.00 |
| 2025-03-06 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $34.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades, indicating no recent momentum from other firms. EPS revisions are negative: 1 downward revision in the last 30 days for +1q, 0y, +1y, and 0q periods, with no upward revisions. Estimates are being revised lower, suggesting deteriorating earnings expectations.
Firm Track Record — Scotiabank
Scotiabank accuracy: 56% on 1496 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 3 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 100% | 3/3 | 8.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 71% | 5/7 | 3.2% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | 4.8% | below average |
Scotiabank has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,496 calls with a 4.4% average return, which is below average compared to top-tier firms covering VTMX. UBS leads with 100% accuracy on 3 calls and 8.1% avg return, followed by Barclays at 71% on 7 calls and 3.2% avg return. Goldman Sachs has 50% on 2 calls with 4.8% avg return, also below average. Scotiabank's track record does not command strong conviction.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $0.59 | $0.59 — $0.59 | $1.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $2.27 | $2.27 — $2.27 | $5.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $2.46 | $2.12 — $2.79 | $6.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.57 | $0.57 — $0.57 | $1.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy and concentrated: five executives sold over $925K in total from May 29 to June 3, 2026, including C-suite members (SOTTIL, CEPEDA, Cueto, PAREDES, Berho). This is a strong bearish signal that diverges from the bullish consensus. Institutional activity is mixed: FMR LLC trimmed 30.9% ($49.5M), Morgan Stanley trimmed 33.6% and 64.5%, while Bank of America added 91.6% and 28.1%. No congressional trades or short interest data are available. The insider selling cluster aligns with the downgrade, reinforcing the bearish view.
Actionable Insight
The downgrade from a below-average-accuracy firm with no price target is a weak signal on its own, but heavy insider selling and negative EPS revisions create a bearish undercurrent. Traders should treat this as a cautionary note rather than a catalyst, and watch for further downgrades or price target cuts from higher-accuracy firms like UBS or Barclays.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 10, 2026
4d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $33.76 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (+1.69%) |
|
Jun 6, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $30.73 $30.94 | ▲ +0.68% | ▲ +0.46% | $34.33 (+11.72%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
9d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $33.64 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (+2.05%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
10d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $33.81 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (−1.54%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
6-K
| $33.81 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $34.33 (−1.54%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.00 $33.82 | ▼ −0.53% | ▲ +2.07% | $34.33 (+0.97%) |
|
Jun 3, 2026
11d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.57 $34.00 | ▼ −1.65% | ▼ −2.05% | $34.33 (−0.69%) |
|
Jun 2, 2026
12d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.57 $34.00 | ▼ −1.65% | ▼ −2.05% | $34.33 (−0.69%) |
|
Jun 1, 2026
13d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.89 $34.57 | ▼ −0.92% | ▼ −0.20% | $34.33 (−1.61%) |
|
May 29, 2026
16d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $34.70 $34.89 | ▼ −0.55% | ▼ −0.39% | $34.33 (+1.07%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access