UPB Upstream Bio

BEARISH Impact: 6/10 PRESS-RELEASE
Horizon weeks Filed May 13, 2026 Processed 28d 6h ago Wire GlobeNewswire
Press release: earnings
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
UPB ▼ -14.21% at T+5d
SHORT call ✓ call won +14.21% · α vs SPY +13.05% · entry $9.36 → $8.03
Next anchor: T+20d in 18h
Currently $6.43 · +31.30% from $9.36 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 12, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-6.09%
call +6.09% · α +6.87%
$8.79
settled 27d ago
T+5d
-14.21%
call +14.21% · α +13.05%
$8.03
settled 21d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 18h
T+60d
call — · α —
in 8w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Upstream Bio reported Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.79, missing consensus of -$0.75 by 5.3%, with net loss widening to $40.6M from $27.3M a year ago. The company is advancing Phase 3 plans for verekitug in severe asthma and CRSwNP with FDA meetings expected mid-2026 and Phase 3 initiations in Q1 2027, while capping enrollment in the COPD trial with data now expected in H2 2027. Cash of $294.6M funds operations through 2027, but the EPS miss and widening losses weigh on near-term sentiment.

Actionable Insight

The EPS miss and widening losses are negative, but the stock's movement will hinge on Phase 3 catalyst timing and any data readouts at upcoming conferences (ATS May 15-20). Monitor for FDA meeting outcomes mid-2026 and potential partnership or financing needs given cash burn trajectory.

Key Facts

  • Q1 2026 EPS -$0.79 vs consensus -$0.75 (5.3% miss)
  • Net loss widened to $40.6M from $27.3M in Q1 2025
  • Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments $294.6M as of March 31, 2026
  • Phase 2 VENTURE COPD trial enrollment capped; data now expected H2 2027 (delayed from prior timeline)
  • Phase 3 initiations in severe asthma and CRSwNP expected Q1 2027
  • Research and development expenses increased 42% to $36.6M

Financial Impact

EPS miss of $0.04 per share; net loss increased $13.3M YoY

epsnet lossoperating expenses

Risk Factors

  • Clinical trial failure in Phase 3 severe asthma or CRSwNP
  • Cash burn rate may require dilutive financing before Phase 3 data
  • COPD trial delay to H2 2027 pushes back a key catalyst

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
83% bullish (12 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.

DocumentAccession Number
PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic)press-3293845
7 reports for UPB
Performance horizon
33% Hit rate 1 of 3 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +14.03%Mar 1, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for UPB — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 18, 2026
23d ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$8.51 $8.21▼ −3.53%▼ −5.14%$6.43 (−24.44%)
May 13, 2026
28d ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$9.36 $8.03▲ +14.21%▲ +13.05%$6.43 (+31.30%)
Apr 17, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$9.99 $9.30▼ −6.91%▼ −7.46%$6.43 (−35.64%)
Mar 26, 2026
10w ago
424B5
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$8.67 $9.72▼ −12.11%▼ −8.25%$6.43 (+25.84%)
Mar 26, 2026
10w ago
Press Release
MIXED ★ 6/10
$9.79 $9.50▼ −2.96%▼ −4.60%$6.43 (−34.32%)
Mar 16, 2026
12w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$9.61 $8.45▼ −12.07%▼ −10.03%$6.43 (−33.09%)
Mar 1, 2026
14w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$7.70 $8.06▲ +4.68%▲ +5.88%$6.43 (−16.49%)
Showing 7 of 7

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