TSLA Tesla, Inc.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

UBS issued a double upgrade on April 14, moving the stock from Sell to Neutral, though the price target remained unchanged at $352 — representing 21% downside from the current $445.27. UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,083 calls with a 4.6% average return, placing it below the top-tier firms covering this name. Consensus is mixed: 29 Buy (71%), 24 Hold, 8 Sell/Strong Sell out of 61 analysts. The mean target is $412.25, median $450. The stock trades above the mean target. Momentum is flat — zero upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days. EPS revisions are trending negative: 30-day revisions down outnumber up 18-to-7 for the current fiscal year. Insider sales total ~$1.9M over two months from two executives, including a director. Institutional activity is mixed: Renaissance Technologies doubled its position (+220.9%) and Norges Bank initiated a new $17.1B stake, while Bank of America trimmed 28.2%. Short interest is elevated at 61% of float. The bottom line: UBS's call is contrarian (double upgrade from Sell) but from a below-average-accuracy firm, with a stagnant PT that implies downside — treat as a neutral signal, not a bullish catalyst.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Out of 61 analysts covering the stock: 9 Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 24 Hold, 7 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. That's 29 Buy-rated (47.5%), 24 Hold (39.3%), and 8 Sell/Strong Sell (13.1%). Consensus leans bullish but is far from unanimous, with a significant hold contingent.

Current price: $445.27. Mean target: $412.25 (implied downside -7.4%). Median target: $450 (near current). High target: $600 (Wedbush). Low target: $123. UBS's $352 target sits well below the mean — the second-lowest among 41 analysts. The stock trades above both the mean and median, indicating the Street is already pricing in upside that UBS does not see.

Recent Analyst Activity

Zero analyst upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days — no momentum. EPS revisions are negative: 30-day revisions down outnumber up 18-to-7 for the current fiscal year, and 19-to-3 for next year. Estimates are being revised lower across all periods, a bearish undercurrent.

Firm Track Record — UBS

UBS accuracy: 55% on 5083 calls | avg return: 4.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,083 calls with a 4.6% average return — below the peer average. Top-tier firms on this name include Jefferies (100% on 3 calls, +53.8% avg return), RBC Capital (93% on 14, +33.7%), and Piper Sandler (85% on 13, +32.7%). UBS's track record is mediocre relative to these peers, reducing the weight of this double upgrade.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider sales: $1.9M in total from two executives (director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold ~$1M over two months; CTO Vaibhav Taneja sold $899K). No insider buys — a bearish divergence from the upgrade. Institutional activity is mixed: Renaissance Technologies doubled its position (+220.9%) and Norges Bank initiated a $17.1B stake, while Bank of America trimmed 28.2%. Short interest is 61% of float — extremely high, suggesting heavy bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if sentiment shifts. No congressional trades. Overall, insider selling and negative EPS revisions diverge from the upgrade signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status