TSLA Tesla, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
On October 24, 2025, Freedom Broker upgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Hold from Sell and raised its price target to $406 from $338, a double-notch move. The upgrade comes amid a cluster of 21 analyst actions on the stock. Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 scored TSLA calls with an average return of 11.8%, placing it in the mid-tier of covering firms. Consensus is 29 Buy, 21 Hold, 10 Sell (60 analysts), with a mean target of $414.10 and median of $450. TSLA trades at $381.63, implying 8.5% upside to the mean and 6.4% upside to the new PT. In the past 30 days, EPS revisions have been predominantly negative: current-year EPS saw 5 up vs 17 down, and next-year saw 3 up vs 18 down. Insider selling continues, with $1.6M in sales in March 2026. Short interest is elevated at 61% of trading volume. Institutional flows are mixed: Renaissance Technologies doubled its position and Norges Bank initiated a $17.1B stake, while Bank of America trimmed 28.2%. The upgrade signals a potential trough for TSLA, but bearish fundamentals and insider activity warrant caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Current consensus comprises 9 Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 21 Hold, 8 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell, for a total of 60 analysts. The majority (50%) are Hold, 48% are Buy-side, and 10% are Sell-side, indicating a cautiously optimistic tilt.
The mean price target is $414.10, median $450, high $600, and low $123. At $381.63, TSLA trades 8.5% below the mean. Freedom Broker's $406 PT is 1.9% below the mean and 9.8% below the median, reflecting a more conservative stance relative to consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $364.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Buy | $450.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $475.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | TD Cowen | reiterate | Buy | $490.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | reiterate | Overweight | $510.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Wedbush | reiterate | Outperform | $600.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $480.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Needham | reiterate | Hold | — |
| 2026-04-22 | Cantor Fitzgerald | reiterate | Overweight | $510.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wedbush | reiterate | Outperform | $600.00 |
Momentum shows 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades in the past 30 days. However, EPS revision trends are negative: current-year EPS had 5 upward revisions vs 17 downward, and next-year EPS saw 3 up vs 18 down over the same period. This divergence suggests fundamental headwinds despite the positive analyst action.
Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker
Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 100% | 3/3 | 53.8% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 93% | 13/14 | 33.7% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 85% | 11/13 | 32.7% | top tier |
| Canaccord Genuity | 80% | 12/15 | 28.5% | top tier |
| Roth MKM | 80% | 4/5 | 29.9% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 80% | 4/5 | 26.6% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 80% | 4/5 | 19.3% | top tier |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 79% | 27/34 | 31.7% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 79% | 11/14 | 22.5% | top tier |
| Needham | 78% | 7/9 | 24.6% | top tier |
Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 rated TSLA calls, with an average return of 11.8%. This compares to top-tier firms like Jefferies (100% on 3 calls), RBC Capital (93% on 14), and Piper Sandler (85% on 13). Freedom Broker's upgrade aligns with consensus direction but their track record is moderate.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $2.08 | $1.35 — $3.19 | $102.3B | ↑12 ↓0 |
| +1y | $2.54 | $1.46 — $3.65 | $119.6B | ↑7 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.45 | $0.26 — $0.59 | $24.6B | ↑7 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.54 | $0.30 — $0.83 | $26.9B | ↑6 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show two sells totaling $1.6M in March 2026. Institutional moves are mixed: Renaissance Technologies increased its stake by 220.9% and Norges Bank opened a new $17.1B position, while Bank of America reduced its position by 28.2%. Short interest is high at 61% of trading volume, indicating persistent bearish bets. The upgrade diverges from insider selling and downward EPS revisions.
Actionable Insight
The double upgrade from Sell to Hold reduces downside risk but does not signal a strong buy. Traders should view this as a reason to cover shorts or take profits on bearish positions, but wait for a catalyst (e.g., earnings beat or improved EPS revisions) before initiating new longs.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 14, 2026
7d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $364.04 $433.28 | ▲ +19.02% | ▲ +12.72% | $422.55 (+16.07%) |
|
May 1, 2026
20d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $452.22 $417.51 | ▼ −7.68% | ▼ −5.28% | $422.55 (−6.56%) |
|
Apr 30, 2026
20d ago
|
10-K/A
| — | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
|
Apr 23, 2026
28d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $373.62 $417.26 | ▲ +11.68% | ▲ +7.05% | $422.55 (+13.10%) |
|
Apr 22, 2026
28d ago
|
8-K
| $373.62 $417.26 | ▼ −11.68% | ▼ −7.05% | $422.55 (−13.10%) |
|
Apr 13, 2026
5w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $352.28 $445.03 | ▲ +26.33% | ▲ +18.60% | $422.55 (+19.95%) |
|
Apr 2, 2026
7w ago
|
8-K
| $360.45 $381.63 | ▲ +5.88% | ▼ −4.00% | $422.55 (+17.23%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access