TJX TJX COMPANIES INC /DE/

Price Chart

Executive Summary

On Apr 3, 2025, Citigroup upgraded TJX from Neutral to Buy and lifted its price target from $128 to $140, joining four other firms (Guggenheim, BTIG, UBS) in a cluster of analyst actions on the stock. The current price of $156.75 sits 10.7% above Citi's new target, making the call contrarian on valuation. Consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish: 84% of 25 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean price target of $172.17 (9.8% upside). Citigroup's accuracy is 55% across 4,355 calls, below the top-tier firms like Telsey Advisory (90% on 21 calls). No rating changes occurred in the past 30 days, but EPS estimates are under pressure — 7 downward revisions for the current fiscal year and 5 for next quarter. A $4.8M insider sell on Mar 2 and a short interest of 56.5% contrast with a new $2.2B institutional position from Norges Bank. The bottom line: the upgrade adds near-term positive sentiment to a stock facing earnings headwinds and heavy short positioning.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of the 25 analysts covering TJX, 21 (84%) rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 (12%) Hold, and 1 (4%) Sell. The consensus is strongly bullish, with the vast majority already at the highest rating. Citigroup's upgrade aligns with the prevailing bullish sentiment but at a more cautious price target.

Current price: $156.75. Mean target: $172.17 (9.8% upside). Median target: $175 (11.6% upside). High: $193. Low: $107. Citigroup's $140 target is 18.7% below the mean and implies a -10.7% return from current levels, making it the most bearish among buy-rated analysts. The wide spread from low to high ($86) suggests significant disagreement on fair value.

Recent Analyst Activity

No upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the past 30 days. However, EPS estimate revisions are telling: 4 downgrades for the current quarter, 5 for the next quarter, and 7 for the current fiscal year. The trend is clearly negative, with the current-quarter EPS estimate falling from $1.02 to $0.99 and next-quarter from $1.21 to $1.16. Analysts are becoming more cautious on near-term earnings.

Firm Track Record — Citigroup

Citigroup accuracy: 55% on 4355 calls | avg return: 4.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Citigroup has a 55% accuracy rate on 4,355 stock ratings with an average return of 4.9%. This is below the top-performing firms on TJX: Telsey Advisory Group (90% on 21 calls), Wells Fargo (88% on 8), and Baird (88% on 8). The best average return among firms covering TJX is Bernstein at 12.4% (3 calls), while the worst is Wells Fargo at 3.9% (8 calls). Citigroup's record is moderate but not elite.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: May 20, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trading shows a single large sell: Herrman Ernie sold $4.8M worth of shares on Mar 2. Congressional activity is minimal: Rep. Jared Moskowitz bought $1,001-$15,000 on Mar 23. On the institutional side, Norges Bank opened a new $2.2B position and Two Sigma Investments more than doubled its stake (up 6,489% to $244M), while Renaissance Technologies trimmed 36.7%. Short interest is extremely high at 56.5% of outstanding shares, indicating aggressive bearish betting. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and downward EPS revisions but converges with major institutional accumulation, creating a mixed cross-platform signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status