TGT TARGET CORP
Price Chart
Executive Summary
On March 4, Telsey Advisory Group upgraded Target (TGT) from Market Perform to Outperform with a new price target of $145, up from $110. The call came amid a cluster of 19 analyst actions on the stock, amplifying its significance. Telsey's accuracy is 51% on 1,343 calls, near the industry average. Consensus is heavily skewed to Hold (58%), making this upgrade a contrarian bet. The new PT is 12% above the current $129.75 and 16% above the consensus mean of $125.53. EPS estimates have ticked up recently with two upward revisions in the past week. Insider selling persists, with $6.3M in disclosed sales, while short interest is elevated at 63.4%. Earnings are due May 19, adding a near-term catalyst. The upgrade diverges from bearish insider and short signals, creating a potential squeeze setup.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 43 analysts covering TGT, 15 (35%) rate it Buy (7 Strong Buy + 8 Buy), 25 (58%) rate it Hold, and 3 (7%) rate it Sell. The consensus is strongly tilted to Hold, so Telsey's upgrade stands out as a bullish outlier.
Current price $129.75. Mean target $125.53, median $125, high $160, low $88. Telsey's $145 PT is 12% above current price and 16% above consensus mean, placing it in the top quartile of analyst targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $125.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | Guggenheim | maintain | Buy | $140.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $140.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $120.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $120.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $120.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $117.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | $130.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | BNP Paribas | maintain | Underperform | $88.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $145.00 |
In the 30 days prior to the upgrade, there were 0 analyst upgrades and 0 downgrades on TGT. However, EPS estimates have been revised up: current-quarter EPS saw 2 upward revisions (0 down) in the past 7 days, and full-year EPS also had 2 up revisions. Estimates are trending modestly higher.
Firm Track Record — Telsey Advisory Group
Telsey Advisory Group accuracy: 51% on 1343 calls | avg return: 2%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | 100% | 3/3 | 20% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 100% | 5/5 | 14.4% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 2/2 | 25.7% | top tier |
| Roth Capital | 100% | 2/2 | 38.3% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 75% | 3/4 | 13.4% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 75% | 3/4 | 8.5% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 67% | 2/3 | 6.6% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 67% | 2/3 | 8.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 67% | 2/3 | -2.1% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 67% | 2/3 | -2.3% | top tier |
Telsey Advisory Group has a 51% accuracy rate on 1,343 calls with an average return of 2.0%, making it a median performer. Top firms on TGT include Mizuho (100% on 3 calls, avg return 20%), BMO Capital (100% on 5 calls, 14.4%), and Baird (100% on 2 calls, 25.7%). Telsey's historical performance does not give it an edge over peers.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 19, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.35 | $1.30 — $1.56 | $24.3B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.24 | $2.10 — $2.58 | $25.6B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $8.00 | $7.27 — $8.50 | $106.7B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $8.51 | $6.69 — $9.42 | $109.6B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider activity is bearish: two sells totaling $6.3M in mid-March. Institutional changes are mixed—Norges Bank took a new $588M position and Renaissance added 28% ($188M), but UBS trimmed 43% ($406M). Short interest is high at 63.4% short ratio (based on off-exchange volume), indicating significant bearish positioning. The analyst upgrade is divergent from insider selling and heavy shorts, creating a potential contrarian squeeze opportunity.
Actionable Insight
Telsey's contrarian upgrade, combined with strong EPS revisions and high short interest, sets up TGT as a candidate for a short squeeze ahead of May 19 earnings. Traders should monitor price action above $130 for confirmation.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 1, 2026
5d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 31, 2026
6d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $120.06 $118.74 | ▼ −1.10% | ▲ +0.23% | $122.57 (+2.09%) |
|
May 20, 2026
17d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $122.31 $128.33 | ▲ +4.93% | ▲ +3.69% | $122.57 (+0.22%) |
|
May 20, 2026
17d ago
|
8-K
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $120.06 $118.74 | ▼ −1.10% | ▲ +0.23% | $122.57 (+2.09%) |
|
Feb 28, 2026
14w ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $113.10 $119.66 | ▲ +5.80% | ▲ +7.01% | $122.57 (+8.38%) |
US Market Status
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