TERN Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

MIXED Impact: 5/10 Institutional Cluster
Horizon weeks Processed 3mo ago
Institutional cluster: 3 buyers, 0 sellers (bullish)
Latest settled — T+20d
TERN ▲ +25.81% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +25.81% · α vs SPY +33.75% · entry $42.03 → $52.88
Next anchor: T+60d due 20d ago
Latest observation: T+48 -5.21% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Feb 27, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-1.24%
call -1.24% · α -0.32%
$41.51
settled 4mo ago
T+5d
+5.38%
call +5.38% · α +6.58%
$44.29
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+25.81%
call +25.81% · α +33.75%
$52.88
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
call — · α —
due 20d ago

Executive Summary

Three major passive institutions — Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Schwab — increased their positions in Terns Pharmaceuticals during Q4 2024, with Morgan Stanley doubling its stake. The aggregate net buying amounted to $11.9M in new capital, signaling institutional accumulation despite mixed individual results.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
accumulating
Buy Value
$11.9M
Net Flow
$11.9M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $11.9M

▲ Buyers (3)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
Morgan Stanley DOUBLED +327.6% $18.5M $12.0M
Wells Fargo ADD +56.8% $227.0K $9.0K
Schwab ADD +33.4% $1.1M -$146.6K

Actionable Insight

The cluster is driven entirely by large passive managers, which may reflect index inclusion or rebalancing rather than active conviction. Traders should monitor for price stabilization or reversal in early 2025 and check for upcoming catalysts like clinical trial readouts.

Key Facts

  • Morgan Stanley doubled its position, adding 2.56M shares (327.6% increase), increasing value by $12.0M to a total of $18.5M.
  • Wells Fargo added 14.8K shares (+56.8%), increasing its holding value by $9K to $227K.
  • Schwab increased shares by 51.7K (+33.4%) but saw a decrease in value from $1.3M to $1.1M, indicating share price decline during the quarter.
  • No institutional selling was reported among tracked funds.

Financial Impact

3 institutions added $11.9M in net new value, with total current holdings at $19.9M. Notably, Schwab’s position declined in value despite share count increase, suggesting downward price pressure.

market_capfloat_demandinstitutional_ownership

Risk Factors

  • All buyers are passive institutions, reducing the strength of the signal as moves may be mechanical, not fundamental.
  • Schwab’s position lost value despite adding shares, indicating TERN’s stock price likely declined during the quarter, potentially offsetting new buying interest.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-TERN-2024-Q4
8 reports for TERN
Performance horizon
25% Hit rate 1 of 4 directional calls best @ T+1▲ +0.59%Mar 25, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TERN — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 15, 2026
4w ago
15-12G
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$52.97 awaiting T+1awaiting T+1
May 8, 2026
5w ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$52.95 $52.95· 0.00%▼ −0.23%
May 5, 2026
5w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 8/10
$52.95 $52.95· 0.00%▼ −1.38%
May 5, 2026
5w ago
25-NSE
BEARISH ★ 9/10
$52.95 $52.95· 0.00%▲ +1.38%
Apr 27, 2026
6w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$52.95 $52.94▼ −0.02%▲ +0.47%
Apr 27, 2026
6w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$52.95 $52.94▼ −0.02%▲ +0.47%
Mar 25, 2026
11w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 9/10
$52.86 $53.17▲ +0.59%▲ +2.36%
Feb 28, 2026
15w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 5/10
$42.03 $41.51▼ −1.24%▼ −0.32%
Showing 8 of 8

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