SPGI S&P Global Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Raymond James downgraded S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) to Market Perform from Outperform on September 23, 2024, as part of a six-firm cluster action. The downgrade is a contrarian call given the overwhelming bullish consensus — 88% of analysts rate SPGI a Buy or Strong Buy, with zero Sell ratings. The mean price target of $533.76 implies 25.9% upside from the current $424, but Raymond James did not set a new target, signaling caution. The firm's 54% accuracy on 1,636 calls is near the average for covering firms, though its 3.4% average return is solid. Momentum is neutral with zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions for the current quarter show 7 upward vs 12 downward revisions, a slight negative tilt. Insider buying in late April/early May 2026 — three buys totaling ~$2.6M — diverges from the downgrade, providing a bullish contra-signal. Institutional activity is mixed: Wells Fargo added 57.4% and Norges Bank initiated a new $2.4B position, while Renaissance Technologies exited and FMR trimmed 28.6%. Short interest is elevated at 55.3% of TRF volume, suggesting bearish positioning. The bottom line: Raymond James's downgrade is a cautious outlier in a sea of bullish consensus, but insider buying and strong institutional inflows partially offset the bearish signal.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Full consensus: 11 Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 88% Buy/Strong Buy, 12% Hold. 35 analysts cover SPGI. The consensus is heavily bullish, making Raymond James's downgrade a contrarian outlier.
Current price: $424. Mean PT: $533.76 (25.9% upside). Median PT: $540. High: $575, Low: $480. Raymond James did not set a new PT, placing its view below the consensus mean and median.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $554.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $550.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $525.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $556.00 |
| 2026-03-17 | BMO Capital | maintain | Outperform | $495.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $550.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | BMO Capital | maintain | Outperform | $482.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $551.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Buy | $498.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $560.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revision trend: current quarter (0q) shows 7 upward vs 12 downward revisions over 30 days, a net negative. Next fiscal year (+1y) shows 15 upward vs 8 downward revisions, a net positive. Overall, estimates are slightly mixed but leaning negative near-term.
Firm Track Record — Raymond James
Raymond James accuracy: 54% on 1636 calls | avg return: 3.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | 100% | 2/2 | 11% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 2/2 | 5.5% | top tier |
| Stifel | 83% | 5/6 | 9.4% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 11.1% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 60% | 3/5 | 3.8% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 2.5% | above average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | 3.7% | below average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 1/2 | -3.3% | below average |
| Wells Fargo | 44% | 4/9 | -0.7% | below average |
| Oppenheimer | 43% | 3/7 | 3.5% | below average |
Raymond James has 54% accuracy on 1,636 scored calls with a 3.4% average return — near the middle of covering firms. Top performers on SPGI include Mizuho (100% on 2 calls, 11% avg return) and Stifel (83% on 6 calls, 9.4% avg return). Worst performers: Barclays (25% on 4 calls, -2.2% avg return) and Morgan Stanley (25% on 8 calls, -1.1% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $19.62 | $19.47 — $19.81 | $16.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $4.93 | $4.84 — $5.04 | $4.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $22.20 | $21.79 — $22.68 | $17.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $5.08 | $4.95 — $5.20 | $4.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: three buys in late April/early May 2026 totaling ~$2.6M from directors Clay Catherine R, Moritz Robert Edward Jr., and CHEUNG MARTINA — a bullish contra-signal to the downgrade. Congressional activity: Rep. Michael McCaul (R) made five small buys ($1K-$15K each) in March-April 2026, aligning with insider buying. Institutional changes: Wells Fargo added 57.4% ($2.3B), Norges Bank initiated a new $2.4B position — bullish. But Renaissance Technologies exited, Two Sigma near-exited (-88.7%), and FMR trimmed 28.6% — bearish. Short interest is 55.3% of TRF volume, elevated and bearish. The insider buying diverges from the downgrade, adding a bullish counterweight.
Actionable Insight
The downgrade is a cautious call from a mid-tier firm, but insider buying and strong institutional inflows from Wells Fargo and Norges Bank provide a bullish counter-narrative. Traders should watch for a catalyst from the July 29, 2026 earnings to resolve the divergence between analyst caution and insider confidence.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $520.79 $516.36 | ▼ −0.85% | ▼ −1.62% | $417.09 (−19.91%) |
|
May 26, 2026
14d ago
|
8-K
| $412.15 $417.30 | ▲ +1.25% | ▲ +0.04% | $417.09 (+1.20%) |
|
May 21, 2026
19d ago
|
8-K
| $415.57 $423.81 | ▲ +1.98% | ▲ +0.13% | $417.09 (+0.36%) |
|
May 18, 2026
22d ago
|
8-K
| $417.29 $412.15 | ▼ −1.23% | ▼ −2.85% | $417.09 (−0.05%) |
|
May 7, 2026
4w ago
|
8-K
| $419.80 $403.92 | ▼ −3.78% | ▼ −5.25% | $417.09 (−0.65%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $520.79 $516.36 | ▼ −0.85% | ▼ −1.62% | $417.09 (−19.91%) |
|
Apr 29, 2026
6w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $423.67 $423.74 | ▲ +0.02% | ▼ −1.97% | $417.09 (−1.55%) |
US Market Status
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