SBUX STARBUCKS CORP

Price Chart

Executive Summary

TD Cowen double-upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold on May 14, raising its price target to $120 from $106. The firm has a strong track record at 74% accuracy on 19 calls with a 6.6% average return, placing it among top-tier analysts covering this name. Consensus is mixed: 23 Buy, 21 Hold, 5 Sell out of 49 analysts, with a mean target of $105.68 — essentially flat to the current $105.95 price. TD Cowen's new $120 target is 13% above the mean and sits above the median of $108. Momentum is positive: 1 upgrade, 0 downgrades in 30 days, and EPS revisions are trending up for the current and next fiscal years (11 and 15 upward revisions in 7 days). Insider selling persists — CFO Brady Brewer sold $499K in three tranches since March — but no cluster buys to offset. Institutional activity shows Norges Bank and Renaissance Technologies took new positions, while short interest is elevated at 56.7% of off-exchange volume. The bottom line: a high-accuracy firm making a contrarian double upgrade against a tepid consensus adds conviction, but insider selling and high short interest warrant caution for active traders.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Out of 49 analysts: 9 Strong Buy, 14 Buy (total 23 Buy, 47%), 21 Hold (43%), 4 Sell, 1 Strong Sell (total 5 Sell, 10%). Consensus is tilted bullish but heavily split, with nearly as many Hold as Buy ratings. TD Cowen's Buy call is above the consensus direction.

Current price: $105.95. Mean target: $105.68 (0% implied downside). Median: $108 (+2%). High: $137 (+29%). Low: $80 (-24%). TD Cowen's $120 target is 13% above the mean and 11% above the median, placing it in the top quartile of analyst targets. The prior target of $106 was in line with consensus; the new $120 is a clear outlier to the upside.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (TD Cowen), 0 downgrades. EPS revision trend is positive: current quarter (0q) saw 6 upward revisions in 7 days vs 0 down; current fiscal year (0y) saw 11 up vs 0 down; next fiscal year (+1y) saw 15 up vs 0 down. Estimates are being revised higher across all timeframes, supporting the bullish thesis.

Firm Track Record — TD Cowen

TD Cowen accuracy: 56% on 1800 calls | avg return: 3.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

TD Cowen ranks among the top-tier firms covering this stock with 74% accuracy on 19 calls and a 6.6% average return. This is well above the average firm accuracy of ~60%. Best-performing firms: BTIG (100% on 4 calls, 9.1% avg return), Jefferies (80% on 5 calls, -2.6% avg return), Piper Sandler (75% on 4 calls, 2.6% avg return). Worst: Oppenheimer (50% on 2 calls, -1.5% avg return), Evercore ISI (50% on 4 calls, 7% avg return).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is notable: CFO Brady Brewer sold $499K in three tranches (March 9, April 6, April 17, May 5) and EVP Sara Kelly sold $210K on April 29. No insider buys. Per academic literature, insider sells are weak signals but the consistent C-suite selling (CFO) adds a cautionary note. Congressional trades: two small sells (Rep. Banks $1K-$15K, Rep. Khanna $1K-$15K) — negligible. Institutional activity: Norges Bank and Renaissance Technologies took new positions (Norges $1.23B, Renaissance $112M), while Norges and Two Sigma also exited — mixed signals. Short interest is elevated at 56.7% of off-exchange volume, indicating bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if the upgrade gains traction.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status