SBUX STARBUCKS CORP

Price Chart

Executive Summary

William Blair upgraded Starbucks (SBUX) to Outperform from Market Perform as part of a 23-firm analyst cluster that acted on the stock on January 23, 2026. The firm did not provide a new price target. William Blair's track record shows 51% accuracy on 273 calls with an average return of 4.2%, placing it below top-tier firms like BTIG (100%) and Jefferies (80%). Consensus remains mixed: 46% Buy, 42% Hold, 12% Sell across 48 analysts, with a mean price target of $104.62, essentially flat versus the current $105.33. EPS revisions are mixed — slight upward for the current year but downward for the next quarter. Insider selling has been persistent, with five transactions in the past two months, including the CFO. Congressional trades show two small sells. Short interest is elevated at 56.9%, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The upgrade is a contrarian signal against a backdrop of insider selling and high short interest, but the cluster of 23 firms adds weight. The bottom line: the upgrade is a bullish signal from a moderate-accuracy firm, but traders should weigh it against bearish cross-currents.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

The consensus among 48 analysts is split: 9 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 20 Hold, 4 Sell, 2 Strong Sell. That equates to 46% Buy (Strong Buy + Buy), 42% Hold, and 12% Sell. The direction is cautiously optimistic but not overwhelmingly bullish, with a large hold camp reflecting uncertainty.

Based on 34 analysts providing price targets, the mean is $104.62, median $105.50, high $137, low $74. At $105.33, the stock trades essentially at the mean, implying 0.6% downside. William Blair did not issue a new price target, so its view remains qualitative relative to the consensus flat target.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the last 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades among the analyst community. EPS revisions are mixed: the current fiscal year saw 4 upward and 4 downward revisions in the past 30 days, with a slight net positive move (+4% over 30 days). Next quarter estimates have seen 7 downward revisions versus 1 upward, indicating near-term caution.

Firm Track Record — William Blair

William Blair accuracy: 51% on 273 calls | avg return: 4.2%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

William Blair has a 51% accuracy rate on 273 calls with an average return of 4.2%. This is below top performers like BTIG (100% on 4 calls) and Jefferies (80% on 5 calls). Among firms covering SBUX, William Blair ranks in the below-average tier, limiting the upgrade's predictive weight.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider activity is bearish: five sells in the past two months, including CFO Sara Kelly for $210k and President Brady Brewer for multiple transactions totaling $424k. Congressional trades show two small sells by Rep. Banks and Rep. Khanna. Institutional changes include new positions from Norges Bank ($1.23B) and Renaissance ($112M), but also exits from the same firms — suggesting rotation. Short interest is extremely high at 56.9% of float, reflecting heavy bearish bets. This divergence — an upgrade versus insider selling and high short interest — creates a conflicting picture.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status