RSG REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC.

BULLISH Impact: 5/10 Insider Cluster (2 insiders)
Horizon weeks Filed May 21, 2026 Processed 23d 13h ago
Insider cluster: 2 insiders, $127K total
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
RSG ▼ -3.68% at T+5d
LONG call ✗ call lost -3.68% · α vs SPY -5.52% · entry $208.09 → $200.44
Next anchor: T+20d in 5d
Currently $209.91 · +0.87% from $208.09 entry
Entry anchored
May 20, 2026
via day open
T+1d
+0.40%
call +0.40% · α -0.04%
$208.93
settled 23d ago
T+5d
-3.68%
call -3.68% · α -5.52%
$200.44
settled 16d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 5d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

A mixed insider cluster at Republic Services shows a 10% owner (Cascade Investment) buying $6.0M worth of shares, while CAO Elyse Carlsen sold $48K in a routine tax-related transaction. The buying follows a solid Q1 earnings beat (EPS $1.70 vs $1.58 YoY, +7.6%) and a 50bps EBITDA margin expansion. The $6.0M buy is modest relative to RSG's $66.1B market cap (0.009%), but Cascade's open-market accumulation is notable given the company's strong operational momentum and consistent capital returns.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
buying
Total Value
$6.0M
Insiders
2

Actionable Insight

Cascade's $6.0M buy at ~$208 is a modest but clear vote of confidence from a major 10% owner. The Q1 beat and margin expansion support the bullish thesis. Monitor for any follow-on buying from Cascade or other insiders; the next catalyst is likely the Q2 earnings report in late July. The stock's 61% analyst bullish consensus and strong free cash flow generation provide a favorable backdrop.

Key Facts

  • Cascade Investment (10% owner) purchased 28,786 shares total ($6.0M) on May 15 and May 18 at ~$208 average price
  • CAO Elyse Carlsen sold 221 shares ($48K) on May 19 — a routine, small-dollar sale likely for tax purposes
  • RSG reported Q1 2026 EPS of $1.70 (+7.6% YoY), revenue of $4.11B (+2.6% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 50bps to 32.1%
  • Company generated $1.23B in operating cash flow and $984M in adjusted free cash flow in Q1
  • RSG returned $507M to shareholders in Q1 via $314M in buybacks and $193M in dividends
  • Cascade's buy represents 0.009% of RSG's $66.1B market cap — modest but directionally positive from a major shareholder

Financial Impact

Cascade Investment's $6.0M open-market purchase is small relative to market cap but signals insider confidence; Q1 EPS beat by $0.12 vs prior year and EBITDA margin expanded 50bps

epsrevenueebitda_marginfree_cash_flow

Risk Factors

  • Insider buying is small relative to market cap — may not move the stock
  • Historical calibration shows prior bullish calls on RSG underperformed at T+20 (avg alpha -8.67%)
  • Recycled commodity prices declined $35/ton YoY, pressuring recycling segment margins
  • CAO sale, though small, could indicate personal portfolio rebalancing

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Refuse Systems
Analyst Consensus
61% bullish (33 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)cluster-RSG-1779325787443
19 reports for RSG
Performance horizon
91% Hit rate 10 of 11 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +9.39%May 16, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for RSG — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 10, 2026
2d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$196.97 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$209.91 (+6.57%)
May 21, 2026
23d ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$208.09 $200.44▼ −3.68%▼ −5.52%$209.91 (+0.87%)
May 16, 2026
27d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$232.65 $227.58▼ −2.18%▲ +1.95%$209.91 (−9.77%)
May 11, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 2/10
$197.73 $214.52▼ −8.49%▼ −8.58%$209.91 (−6.16%)
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$209.66 $214.04▲ +2.09%▲ +1.11%$209.91 (+0.12%)
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$209.66 $214.04▲ +2.09%▲ +1.11%$209.91 (+0.12%)
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$209.66 $214.04▲ +2.09%▲ +1.11%$209.91 (+0.12%)
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$209.66 $214.04▲ +2.09%▲ +1.11%$209.91 (+0.12%)
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$209.66 $214.04▲ +2.09%▲ +1.11%$209.91 (+0.12%)
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$209.66 $214.04▲ +2.09%▲ +1.11%$209.91 (+0.12%)
Showing 10 of 19

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (46h 57m)

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