RSG REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CIBC upgraded Republic Services (RSG) from Neutral to Sector Outperform with a $264 price target, implying 27% upside from the current $208.68. The call is part of a 14-firm cluster triggered by RSG's investor day and Q1 earnings. CIBC has a perfect 100% accuracy rate on 4 calls for RSG, making this a high-conviction signal. Consensus is mixed: 20 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell. The mean target is $243.83, so CIBC's $264 is above consensus. EPS revisions are positive: 11 up vs 7 down over 30 days for the current year. Insider buying is extremely bullish: Cascade Investment (Bill Gates' family office) bought $40.9M over three days, directly opposing any bearish view. Short interest is elevated at 62.7% of off-exchange volume, suggesting potential squeeze fuel. Bottom line: a perfect-track-record firm upgrading into massive insider buying and positive estimate momentum is a powerful bullish signal.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 8 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 33 analysts total. Direction is tilted bullish (61% Buy/Strong Buy) but with a sizable 39% Hold camp, indicating some caution.
Current price: $208.68. Mean target: $243.83 (implied upside +16.9%). Median: $249.50. High: $270. Low: $200. CIBC's $264 is 8% above the mean and 6% above the median, placing it in the top quartile of targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $223.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $247.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Argus Research | downgrade | Hold | — |
| 2026-05-11 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $233.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $267.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Baird | maintain | Neutral | $240.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $245.00 |
| 2026-03-18 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | — |
| 2026-03-13 | Wolfe Research | initiate | Peer Perform | — |
| 2026-03-05 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | — |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 1 downgrade (Argus Research from Buy to Hold on May 11). EPS revisions are net positive: current year 11 up vs 7 down over 30 days; next year 12 up vs 5 down. Estimates are being revised higher.
Firm Track Record — CIBC
CIBC accuracy: 66% on 204 calls | avg return: 11.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 11.1% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 2/2 | 3.4% | top tier |
| CIBC | 100% | 4/4 | 8.4% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 100% | 4/4 | 4.2% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 3/3 | 6.9% | top tier |
| Stifel | 100% | 3/3 | 6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 100% | 4/4 | 6.1% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 83% | 5/6 | 1.9% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 71% | 5/7 | 2.5% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 60% | 3/5 | -0.6% | above average |
CIBC has a 100% accuracy rate on 4 RSG calls with an average return of 8.4% per call. This is top-tier vs. the peer set. Best performing firms on RSG: RBC Capital (100% on 3 calls, avg return 11.1%), Baird (100% on 2 calls, 3.4%). Worst: Citigroup (0% on 2 calls, -2.6%), JP Morgan (33% on 3 calls, -3.1%).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $7.28 | $7.18 — $7.53 | $17.2B | ↑11 ↓0 |
| +1y | $8.06 | $7.72 — $8.61 | $18.1B | ↑11 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.93 | $1.83 — $2.00 | $4.4B | ↑7 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.83 | $1.76 — $1.90 | $4.4B | ↑5 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider buying is extremely bullish: Cascade Investment (Bill Gates' family office) bought $40.9M in three consecutive days (May 11-13). This is a cluster buy from a sophisticated investor, strongly opposing any bearish thesis. Institutional activity is mixed: FMR trimmed 31.3% but also added 35.3% in a separate fund; Morgan Stanley added 38.6%; Norges Bank initiated a $617M position; Renaissance Technologies doubled its position (+465%). Short interest is 62.7% of off-exchange volume, elevated and potentially squeeze-prone. No congressional trades. The insider buying and institutional additions strongly converge with the bullish analyst signal.
Actionable Insight
Buy RSG on weakness. The combination of a perfect-track-record analyst upgrade, $40.9M in insider buying from Cascade, and positive EPS revisions creates a high-probability setup. The elevated short interest adds squeeze potential. Use $208 as a stop-loss level.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 10, 2026
4d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $196.97 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $209.91 (+6.57%) |
|
May 21, 2026
25d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $208.09 $200.44 | ▼ −3.68% | ▼ −5.52% | $209.91 (+0.87%) |
|
May 16, 2026
29d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $232.65 $227.58 | ▼ −2.18% | ▲ +1.95% | $209.91 (−9.77%) |
|
May 11, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $197.73 $214.52 | ▼ −8.49% | ▼ −8.58% | $209.91 (−6.16%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $209.66 $214.04 | ▲ +2.09% | ▲ +1.11% | $209.91 (+0.12%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $209.66 $214.04 | ▲ +2.09% | ▲ +1.11% | $209.91 (+0.12%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $209.66 $214.04 | ▲ +2.09% | ▲ +1.11% | $209.91 (+0.12%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $209.66 $214.04 | ▲ +2.09% | ▲ +1.11% | $209.91 (+0.12%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $209.66 $214.04 | ▲ +2.09% | ▲ +1.11% | $209.91 (+0.12%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $209.66 $214.04 | ▲ +2.09% | ▲ +1.11% | $209.91 (+0.12%) |
US Market Status
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