RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc.
Executive Summary
Four mega-passive institutional funds (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, Fidelity) added $76.9M in aggregate to their RCAT positions during Q3 2025, with BlackRock and Vanguard making the largest absolute increases. This is a capital-weighted allocation signal from the largest index managers, likely reflecting RCAT's inclusion or rebalancing within broad-market indices, rather than a fundamental stock-specific conviction.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $76.9M
▲ Buyers (4)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard | ADD | +43.9% | $57.0M | $29.1M |
| BlackRock | ADD | +35.4% | $70.7M | $34.0M |
| State Street | ADD | +34.4% | $28.9M | $13.8M |
| Fidelity | ADD | +71.9% | $19.0K | $11.0K |
Actionable Insight
The buying is entirely from mega-passive index managers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) with no active funds or hedge funds participating. This is a mechanical index-rebalancing signal, not a stock-specific thesis. Traders should not interpret this as a bullish catalyst — monitor for active-manager participation or a fundamental catalyst (e.g., earnings beat, contract win) to confirm the bullish story. The stock's 91% analyst buy rating already prices in optimistic expectations.
Key Facts
- 4 passive index funds accumulated $76.9M net in RCAT during Q3 2025 (total bought $156.7M, zero sold)
- BlackRock added $34.0M (+35.4% to 6.84M shares); Vanguard added $29.1M (+43.9% to 5.51M shares); State Street added $13.8M (+34.4% to 2.80M shares); Fidelity added $11K (insignificant)
- No sellers in the cluster — universal accumulation by the largest passive managers
- Market cap is $1.3B with 91% analyst bullish consensus; stock has rallied significantly (recent reports show large T+5 moves)
Financial Impact
$76.9M of net institutional buying from 4 funds, representing ~5.9% of current market cap if all purchases occurred at near-quarter-end prices
Risk Factors
- No active managers buying suggests the stock may not yet have developed a fundamental institution thesis
- 13F data is 45+ days stale — the cluster may have been partially unwound, especially given recent volatility
- Stock has shown large post-13F-date swings (T+5 moves of -19% to +57% on recent reports); the cluster does not predict short-term direction
- Pure passive buying provides no signaling value about future stock performance per academic literature
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-RCAT-2025-Q3 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 11, 2026
2d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $10.90 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 21, 2026
23d ago
|
Press Release
| $9.03 $14.15 | ▲ +56.70% | ▲ +55.10% | — |
|
May 20, 2026
24d ago
|
8-K
| $8.94 $10.67 | ▼ −19.35% | ▼ −18.11% | — |
|
May 20, 2026
24d ago
|
Press Release
| $8.94 $10.67 | ▲ +19.35% | ▲ +18.11% | — |
|
May 14, 2026
29d ago
|
8-K
| $9.49 $9.41 | ▲ +0.84% | ▲ +1.81% | — |
|
May 14, 2026
4w ago
|
Press Release
| $9.74 $9.03 | ▼ −7.29% | ▼ −6.57% | — |
|
May 13, 2026
4w ago
|
Press Release
| $9.40 $8.55 | ▲ +9.04% | ▲ +7.88% | — |
|
May 12, 2026
4w ago
|
424B5
| $9.40 $8.55 | ▲ +9.04% | ▲ +7.88% | — |
|
May 12, 2026
4w ago
|
S-3ASR
| $9.40 $8.55 | ▲ +9.04% | ▲ +7.88% | — |
|
Apr 30, 2026
6w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $11.72 $10.62 | ▼ −9.39% | ▼ −11.11% | — |
US Market Status
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