PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BMO Capital initiated coverage on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) at Market Perform with a $52 price target, implying 17.4% upside from the current $44.30. The firm's 80% accuracy on 5 calls and top-tier average return of 10.6% lend credibility to this neutral stance. Consensus is heavily tilted toward Hold (33 of 52 analysts), with only 15 Buy ratings and 4 Sells. The mean target of $52.53 aligns closely with BMO's $52, placing it near the consensus median. Recent analyst activity shows 1 downgrade in the past 30 days (Macquarie to Neutral) and no upgrades, while EPS revisions for the current quarter have seen 28 downward revisions in 30 days. Insider selling persists, including a $175K sale by EVP Suzan Kereere on May 19, and institutional exits by Norges Bank and Sound Shore Management signal caution. The next earnings report is due July 27, 2026 — roughly 3 months away, reducing near-term event risk. BMO's initiation adds a neutral voice to an already cautious consensus, with no strong directional catalyst. Traders should view this as a non-event; the stock remains range-bound with limited upside conviction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 52 analysts covering PYPL, 15 (29%) rate it Buy (4 Strong Buy, 11 Buy), 33 (63%) Hold, and 4 (8%) Sell. The consensus is heavily skewed toward Hold, reflecting broad uncertainty about the company's growth trajectory.
Mean price target is $52.53, median $48.00, high $147.39, low $32.00. Current price $44.30 implies 18.6% upside to the mean. BMO's $52 target is slightly below the mean but above the median, placing it in the middle of the consensus range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Hold | $42.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Truist Securities | maintain | Sell | $44.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Macquarie | downgrade | Neutral | $50.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $48.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $59.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | Needham | reiterate | Hold | — |
| 2026-04-24 | Truist Securities | maintain | Sell | $45.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | BMO Capital | initiate | Market Perform | $52.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $54.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | B of A Securities | maintain | Neutral | $55.00 |
In the past 30 days, PYPL has seen 0 upgrades and 1 downgrade (Macquarie to Neutral). EPS revisions for the current quarter show 28 downward revisions in 30 days, with the average estimate falling from $1.35 to $1.29. The trend is clearly negative.
Firm Track Record — BMO Capital
BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1844 calls | avg return: 2.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | 100% | 3/3 | 19.5% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 4/4 | 4.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 100% | 3/3 | 2.8% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 10.6% | top tier |
| Susquehanna | 80% | 4/5 | 9.7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | -9.6% | top tier |
| Baird | 67% | 4/6 | -0.3% | top tier |
| Canaccord Genuity | 60% | 3/5 | 3% | above average |
| Barclays | 60% | 3/5 | 3% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 3.2% | above average |
BMO Capital has an 80% accuracy rate on 5 calls with a 10.6% average return, ranking as top-tier among firms covering PYPL. The best-performing firm is Monness, Crespi, Hardt (100% on 3 calls, 19.5% avg return); the worst is Wolfe Research (50% on 2 calls, -21.2% avg return). BMO's track record is strong but based on a small sample.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.29 | $1.25 — $1.49 | $8.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $5.79 | $5.27 — $6.57 | $35.8B | ↑13 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.34 | $1.25 — $1.48 | $8.6B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $5.30 | $5.17 — $5.53 | $34.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is notable: EVP Suzan Kereere sold $175K on May 19, and CFO Frank Keller sold $402K in March. Congressional activity is mixed (one Republican buy, one sell). Institutional changes show Norges Bank exiting and Two Sigma trimming 74.5% of its position. Short interest data is unavailable. The insider and institutional signals diverge from the neutral analyst initiation, adding caution.
Actionable Insight
BMO's neutral initiation is a non-event for active traders. The broader consensus is cautious, EPS revisions are falling, and insiders are selling. Avoid initiating long positions until a clear catalyst emerges; the stock is range-bound with downside risk.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 6, 2026
8d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $46.20 $44.93 | ▲ +2.75% | ▲ +5.04% | $41.53 (+10.10%) |
|
May 31, 2026
14d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $73.87 $74.82 | ▲ +1.29% | ▲ +0.65% | $41.53 (−43.78%) |
|
May 22, 2026
23d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $51.20 $50.93 | ▼ −0.53% | ▼ −0.58% | $41.53 (−18.88%) |
|
May 16, 2026
29d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $49.80 $49.76 | ▲ +0.08% | ▲ +1.06% | $41.53 (+16.60%) |
|
May 8, 2026
5w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $45.06 $44.37 | ▼ −1.53% | ▼ −1.45% | $41.53 (−7.83%) |
|
May 7, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $46.20 $45.23 | ▼ −2.09% | ▼ −3.60% | $41.53 (−10.10%) |
|
May 1, 2026
6w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $73.87 $74.82 | ▲ +1.29% | ▲ +0.65% | $41.53 (−43.78%) |
|
Apr 29, 2026
6w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $50.93 $46.49 | ▼ −8.71% | ▼ −11.82% | $41.53 (−18.45%) |
|
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $51.20 $49.37 | ▼ −3.57% | ▼ −3.62% | $41.53 (−18.88%) |
|
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $45.84 $49.56 | ▲ +8.12% | ▲ +4.60% | $41.53 (−9.39%) |
US Market Status
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