PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc.

NEUTRAL Impact: 1/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-PYPL-bmocapit-20260422
BMO Capital initiates coverage on PYPL at Market Perform
Latest settled — T+20d
PYPL ▼ -14.39% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -14.39% · α vs SPY -17.55% · entry $51.20 → $43.83
Next anchor: T+60d in 5w
Last close $41.53 (close Jun 12) · -18.88% from $51.20 entry
Entry anchored
Apr 22, 11:30 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-2.81%
call -2.81% · α -2.42%
$49.76
settled 8w ago
T+5d
-3.57%
call -3.57% · α -3.62%
$49.37
settled 7w ago
T+20d
-14.39%
call -14.39% · α -17.55%
$43.83
settled 26d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 5w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

BMO Capital initiated coverage on PayPal (PYPL) with a Market Perform rating and $52 price target, implying 2.2% upside from the current $50.88. The firm’s 80% accuracy rate (4 of 5 calls correct) places it in the top tier, though this initiation aligns with the existing 30-analyst consensus of 58% Hold ratings. The $53.06 mean price target shows PYPL trading near median expectations, with EPS estimates rising: 7 upward revisions in 30 days for FY+1. Recent institutional exits include Norges Bank and Two Sigma trimming by 74.5%, while insider selling totaled $682K in March. Earnings due May 5 add timing risk. Cross-platform signals show slight divergence: analyst sentiment neutral, but capital flows suggest caution.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
+0
Final Score
1/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
16 (32%)
Hold
30
Sell / Strong Sell
4
Total Analysts
33
Mean PT
$53.06
Median PT
$48.00
High PT
$147.39
Low PT
$32.00
Current Price
$50.88
Implied Upside
+4.3%

Of 50 total analysts, 16 (32%) rate PYPL a Buy, 30 (60%) Hold, and 4 (8%) Sell. The consensus is overwhelmingly neutral, with Hold ratings dominating. BMO’s Market Perform initiation is fully aligned with this stance, adding no contrarian signal.

The consensus mean price target is $53.06, median $48, range $32 to $147.39 (33 analysts). BMO’s $52 target sits just below the mean (-1.0%) and implies 2.2% upside from $50.88. It is 8.3% above the median, reflecting a moderately optimistic but not outlier view.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-22 BMO Capital initiate Market Perform $52.00
2026-04-21 Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Neutral $54.00
2026-04-21 B of A Securities maintain Neutral $55.00
2026-04-16 Mizuho downgrade Neutral $50.00
2026-04-08 Citigroup maintain Neutral $48.00
2026-03-31 Loop Capital initiate Hold $46.00
2026-03-02 KGI Securities downgrade Neutral $55.00
2026-02-10 Truist Securities maintain Sell $39.00
2026-02-09 Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Neutral $42.00
2026-02-04 Macquarie maintain Outperform $58.00

Over the past 30 days, analysts issued 2 upgrades and 1 downgrade. EPS estimates show positive momentum: 7 upward revisions in the past 30 days for FY+1 (5.817 EPS), versus only 1 downward. However, near-term EPS (0Q) has seen minor downward tweaks (-0.002 from 30 days ago).

Firm Track Record — BMO Capital

BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1844 calls | avg return: 2.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Monness, Crespi, Hardt 100% 3/3 19.5% top tier
Goldman Sachs 100% 4/4 4.2% top tier
JP Morgan 100% 3/3 2.8% top tier
BMO Capital 80% 4/5 10.6% top tier
Susquehanna 80% 4/5 9.7% top tier
B of A Securities 67% 2/3 -9.6% top tier
Baird 67% 4/6 -0.3% top tier
Canaccord Genuity 60% 3/5 3% above average
Barclays 60% 3/5 3% above average
UBS 60% 3/5 3.2% above average

BMO Capital has an 80% accuracy rate (4 of 5 calls correct) on PYPL with an average return of 10.6%, ranking in the top tier. This compares favorably to the lowest-ranked firms: Wolfe Research (50%, -21.2% avg return) and B of A Securities (67%, -9.6%). BMO’s track record adds credibility, but the call is not contrarian.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: May 5, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $1.28 $1.20 — $1.41 $8.1B ↑2 ↓0
+1q $1.35 $1.25 — $1.49 $8.5B ↑1 ↓0
0y $5.32 $5.17 — $5.88 $34.1B ↑2 ↓0
+1y $5.82 $5.27 — $6.57 $35.6B ↑4 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 3 sells
Congressional
Mark Alford (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Byron Donalds (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Byron Donalds (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
SOUND SHORE MANAGEMENT INC /CT/ — exit (-100%)
Institutional
Fund 1 Investments, LLC — exit (-100%)

Cross-platform signals show divergence: analysts are neutral-to-slightly-bullish, but institutional holders are exiting—Norges Bank fully exited, Two Sigma trimmed by 74.5%. Insiders sold $682K in March. Congressional trades are mixed: 2 buys (Donalds), 3 sells (Alford, Fleischmann, King). No short interest data available. Capital flows suggest caution despite stable analyst sentiment.

Actionable Insight

Neutral initiation from a high-accuracy firm adds no new catalyst. With earnings in 13 days and institutional outflows, stand aside. The stock is fairly valued with limited near-term upside and increasing downside risk from capital withdrawal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

12 reports for PYPL
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 4 of 4 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +10.67%Jun 6, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PYPL — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 6, 2026
8d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$46.20 $44.93▲ +2.75%▲ +5.04%$41.53 (+10.10%)
May 31, 2026
14d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 1/10
$73.87 $74.82▲ +1.29%▲ +0.65%$41.53 (−43.78%)
May 22, 2026
23d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$51.20 $50.93▼ −0.53%▼ −0.58%$41.53 (−18.88%)
May 16, 2026
29d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 3/10
$49.80 $49.76▲ +0.08%▲ +1.06%$41.53 (+16.60%)
May 8, 2026
5w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$45.06 $44.37▼ −1.53%▼ −1.45%$41.53 (−7.83%)
May 7, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$46.20 $45.23▼ −2.09%▼ −3.60%$41.53 (−10.10%)
May 1, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$73.87 $74.82▲ +1.29%▲ +0.65%$41.53 (−43.78%)
Apr 29, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$50.93 $46.49▼ −8.71%▼ −11.82%$41.53 (−18.45%)
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$51.20 $49.37▼ −3.57%▼ −3.62%$41.53 (−18.88%)
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$45.84 $49.56▲ +8.12%▲ +4.60%$41.53 (−9.39%)
Showing 10 of 12

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