PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BMO Capital initiated coverage on PayPal (PYPL) with a Market Perform rating and $52 price target, implying 2.2% upside from the current $50.88. The firm’s 80% accuracy rate (4 of 5 calls correct) places it in the top tier, though this initiation aligns with the existing 30-analyst consensus of 58% Hold ratings. The $53.06 mean price target shows PYPL trading near median expectations, with EPS estimates rising: 7 upward revisions in 30 days for FY+1. Recent institutional exits include Norges Bank and Two Sigma trimming by 74.5%, while insider selling totaled $682K in March. Earnings due May 5 add timing risk. Cross-platform signals show slight divergence: analyst sentiment neutral, but capital flows suggest caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 50 total analysts, 16 (32%) rate PYPL a Buy, 30 (60%) Hold, and 4 (8%) Sell. The consensus is overwhelmingly neutral, with Hold ratings dominating. BMO’s Market Perform initiation is fully aligned with this stance, adding no contrarian signal.
The consensus mean price target is $53.06, median $48, range $32 to $147.39 (33 analysts). BMO’s $52 target sits just below the mean (-1.0%) and implies 2.2% upside from $50.88. It is 8.3% above the median, reflecting a moderately optimistic but not outlier view.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | BMO Capital | initiate | Market Perform | $52.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $54.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | B of A Securities | maintain | Neutral | $55.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Mizuho | downgrade | Neutral | $50.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $48.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | Loop Capital | initiate | Hold | $46.00 |
| 2026-03-02 | KGI Securities | downgrade | Neutral | $55.00 |
| 2026-02-10 | Truist Securities | maintain | Sell | $39.00 |
| 2026-02-09 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $42.00 |
| 2026-02-04 | Macquarie | maintain | Outperform | $58.00 |
Over the past 30 days, analysts issued 2 upgrades and 1 downgrade. EPS estimates show positive momentum: 7 upward revisions in the past 30 days for FY+1 (5.817 EPS), versus only 1 downward. However, near-term EPS (0Q) has seen minor downward tweaks (-0.002 from 30 days ago).
Firm Track Record — BMO Capital
BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1844 calls | avg return: 2.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | 100% | 3/3 | 19.5% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 4/4 | 4.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 100% | 3/3 | 2.8% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 10.6% | top tier |
| Susquehanna | 80% | 4/5 | 9.7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | -9.6% | top tier |
| Baird | 67% | 4/6 | -0.3% | top tier |
| Canaccord Genuity | 60% | 3/5 | 3% | above average |
| Barclays | 60% | 3/5 | 3% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 3.2% | above average |
BMO Capital has an 80% accuracy rate (4 of 5 calls correct) on PYPL with an average return of 10.6%, ranking in the top tier. This compares favorably to the lowest-ranked firms: Wolfe Research (50%, -21.2% avg return) and B of A Securities (67%, -9.6%). BMO’s track record adds credibility, but the call is not contrarian.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 5, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.28 | $1.20 — $1.41 | $8.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.35 | $1.25 — $1.49 | $8.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $5.32 | $5.17 — $5.88 | $34.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $5.82 | $5.27 — $6.57 | $35.6B | ↑4 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Cross-platform signals show divergence: analysts are neutral-to-slightly-bullish, but institutional holders are exiting—Norges Bank fully exited, Two Sigma trimmed by 74.5%. Insiders sold $682K in March. Congressional trades are mixed: 2 buys (Donalds), 3 sells (Alford, Fleischmann, King). No short interest data available. Capital flows suggest caution despite stable analyst sentiment.
Actionable Insight
Neutral initiation from a high-accuracy firm adds no new catalyst. With earnings in 13 days and institutional outflows, stand aside. The stock is fairly valued with limited near-term upside and increasing downside risk from capital withdrawal.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 6, 2026
8d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $46.20 $44.93 | ▲ +2.75% | ▲ +5.04% | $41.53 (+10.10%) |
|
May 31, 2026
14d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $73.87 $74.82 | ▲ +1.29% | ▲ +0.65% | $41.53 (−43.78%) |
|
May 22, 2026
23d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $51.20 $50.93 | ▼ −0.53% | ▼ −0.58% | $41.53 (−18.88%) |
|
May 16, 2026
29d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $49.80 $49.76 | ▲ +0.08% | ▲ +1.06% | $41.53 (+16.60%) |
|
May 8, 2026
5w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $45.06 $44.37 | ▼ −1.53% | ▼ −1.45% | $41.53 (−7.83%) |
|
May 7, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $46.20 $45.23 | ▼ −2.09% | ▼ −3.60% | $41.53 (−10.10%) |
|
May 1, 2026
6w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $73.87 $74.82 | ▲ +1.29% | ▲ +0.65% | $41.53 (−43.78%) |
|
Apr 29, 2026
6w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $50.93 $46.49 | ▼ −8.71% | ▼ −11.82% | $41.53 (−18.45%) |
|
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $51.20 $49.37 | ▼ −3.57% | ▼ −3.62% | $41.53 (−18.88%) |
|
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $45.84 $49.56 | ▲ +8.12% | ▲ +4.60% | $41.53 (−9.39%) |
US Market Status
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