PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Macquarie double-downgraded PayPal Holdings (PYPL) from Outperform to Neutral on May 7, 2026, slashing its price target to $50 from $58. The stock currently trades at $41.29, implying ~21% upside to the new target. Macquarie's accuracy on 441 scored calls is 55% with a 5.6% average return, placing it below average among firms covering PYPL. The consensus is heavily tilted to Hold: 34 Hold, 10 Buy, 4 Strong Buy, 4 Sell out of 52 analysts. The mean price target is $51.35, median $48, with a wide range from $32 to $147.39. No other upgrades or downgrades occurred in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions for the current quarter show 27 downward revisions vs 1 upward, signaling deteriorating near-term expectations. Insider selling persists, with four sales in the past six weeks totaling ~$575k, including C-suite sales by Keller Frank and Kereere Suzan. The next earnings report is due July 27, 2026, adding a timing catalyst. This downgrade aligns with the bearish consensus drift and weak EPS momentum, reinforcing a cautious stance.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily skewed to Hold: 34 Hold, 10 Buy, 4 Strong Buy, 4 Sell out of 52 analysts. Only 27% of analysts are bullish (Buy/Strong Buy), while 65% are neutral and 8% are bearish. The direction is clearly cautious.
Mean price target is $51.35, median $48, high $147.39, low $32. Current price $41.29 implies 24.4% upside to the mean. Macquarie's $50 target is slightly below the mean but above the median, reflecting a relatively cautious but not extreme view.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Hold | $42.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Truist Securities | maintain | Sell | $44.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Macquarie | downgrade | Neutral | $50.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $48.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $59.00 |
| 2026-05-05 | Needham | reiterate | Hold | — |
| 2026-04-24 | Truist Securities | maintain | Sell | $45.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | BMO Capital | initiate | Market Perform | $52.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $54.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | B of A Securities | maintain | Neutral | $55.00 |
No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions for the current quarter show 27 downward revisions vs 1 upward in the last 30 days, with the current quarter EPS estimate falling from $1.34 to $1.28. Full-year estimates are also being trimmed slightly. The trend is clearly negative.
Firm Track Record — Macquarie
Macquarie accuracy: 55% on 441 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monness, Crespi, Hardt | 100% | 3/3 | 19.5% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 4/4 | 4.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 100% | 3/3 | 2.8% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 10.6% | top tier |
| Susquehanna | 80% | 4/5 | 9.7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | -9.6% | top tier |
| Baird | 67% | 4/6 | -0.3% | top tier |
| Canaccord Genuity | 60% | 3/5 | 3% | above average |
| Barclays | 60% | 3/5 | 3% | above average |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 3.2% | above average |
Macquarie has a 55% accuracy rate on 441 scored calls with a 5.6% average return, placing it below average among firms covering PYPL. Top-tier firms include Monness Crespi Hardt (100% on 3 calls, 19.5% avg return), Goldman Sachs (100% on 4 calls, 4.2% avg return), and JP Morgan (100% on 3 calls, 2.8% avg return). Bottom-tier firms include Wolfe Research (50% on 2 calls, -21.2% avg return) and RBC Capital (50% on 8 calls, 2.1% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $5.31 | $5.17 — $5.53 | $34.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $5.76 | $5.27 — $6.08 | $35.8B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.28 | $1.25 — $1.49 | $8.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.33 | $1.25 — $1.48 | $8.6B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is notable: four sales in the past six weeks totaling ~$575k, including C-suite sales by Keller Frank and Kereere Suzan. No insider buys. Congressional activity is mixed: one sell (Rep. Alford) and two buys (Rep. Donalds) in March, all small amounts. Institutional activity shows a large new position from Norges Bank ($950M) but also exits from Sound Shore Management and Two Sigma trimming 74.5%. Short interest data is unavailable. The insider selling aligns with the bearish analyst signal, while the Norges Bank entry provides a contrarian bullish data point.
Actionable Insight
The Macquarie downgrade reinforces the prevailing bearish consensus, supported by deteriorating EPS revisions and persistent insider selling. Traders should stay short or avoid long positions until the July 27 earnings report provides a clearer catalyst.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 6, 2026
6d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $46.20 $44.93 | ▲ +2.75% | ▲ +5.04% | $41.53 (+10.10%) |
|
May 31, 2026
12d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $73.87 $74.82 | ▲ +1.29% | ▲ +0.65% | $41.53 (−43.78%) |
|
May 22, 2026
21d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $51.20 $50.93 | ▼ −0.53% | ▼ −0.58% | $41.53 (−18.88%) |
|
May 16, 2026
27d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $49.80 $49.76 | ▲ +0.08% | ▲ +1.06% | $41.53 (+16.60%) |
|
May 8, 2026
5w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $45.06 $44.37 | ▼ −1.53% | ▼ −1.45% | $41.53 (−7.83%) |
|
May 7, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $46.20 $45.23 | ▼ −2.09% | ▼ −3.60% | $41.53 (−10.10%) |
|
May 1, 2026
6w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $73.87 $74.82 | ▲ +1.29% | ▲ +0.65% | $41.53 (−43.78%) |
|
Apr 29, 2026
6w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $50.93 $46.49 | ▼ −8.71% | ▼ −11.82% | $41.53 (−18.45%) |
|
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $51.20 $49.37 | ▼ −3.57% | ▼ −3.62% | $41.53 (−18.88%) |
|
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $45.84 $49.56 | ▲ +8.12% | ▲ +4.60% | $41.53 (−9.39%) |
US Market Status
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