PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc.

BEARISH Impact: 4/10 ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
Processed 6d 22h ago SEC analyst-PYPL-macquari-20260507
Macquarie double downgrade: Outperform → Neutral
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
PYPL ▼ -10.67% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +10.67% · α vs SPY +11.50% · entry $46.20 → $41.27
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Currently $41.53 · +10.10% from $46.20 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 7, 07:07 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-1.82%
call +1.82% · α +2.65%
$45.36
settled 5w ago
T+5d
-2.75%
call +2.75% · α +5.04%
$44.93
settled 4w ago
T+20d
-10.67%
call +10.67% · α +11.50%
$41.27
settled 8d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 7w

Price Chart

Loading chart...

Executive Summary

Macquarie double-downgraded PayPal Holdings (PYPL) from Outperform to Neutral on May 7, 2026, slashing its price target to $50 from $58. The stock currently trades at $41.29, implying ~21% upside to the new target. Macquarie's accuracy on 441 scored calls is 55% with a 5.6% average return, placing it below average among firms covering PYPL. The consensus is heavily tilted to Hold: 34 Hold, 10 Buy, 4 Strong Buy, 4 Sell out of 52 analysts. The mean price target is $51.35, median $48, with a wide range from $32 to $147.39. No other upgrades or downgrades occurred in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions for the current quarter show 27 downward revisions vs 1 upward, signaling deteriorating near-term expectations. Insider selling persists, with four sales in the past six weeks totaling ~$575k, including C-suite sales by Keller Frank and Kereere Suzan. The next earnings report is due July 27, 2026, adding a timing catalyst. This downgrade aligns with the bearish consensus drift and weak EPS momentum, reinforcing a cautious stance.

Impact Score

Base Score
3/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
14 (27%)
Hold
34
Sell / Strong Sell
4
Total Analysts
34
Mean PT
$51.35
Median PT
$48.00
High PT
$147.39
Low PT
$32.00
Current Price
$41.29
Implied Upside
+24.4%

Consensus is heavily skewed to Hold: 34 Hold, 10 Buy, 4 Strong Buy, 4 Sell out of 52 analysts. Only 27% of analysts are bullish (Buy/Strong Buy), while 65% are neutral and 8% are bearish. The direction is clearly cautious.

Mean price target is $51.35, median $48, high $147.39, low $32. Current price $41.29 implies 24.4% upside to the mean. Macquarie's $50 target is slightly below the mean but above the median, reflecting a relatively cautious but not extreme view.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-20 Canaccord Genuity maintain Hold $42.00
2026-05-12 Truist Securities maintain Sell $44.00
2026-05-07 Macquarie downgrade Neutral $50.00
2026-05-06 UBS maintain Neutral $48.00
2026-05-06 RBC Capital reiterate Outperform $59.00
2026-05-05 Needham reiterate Hold
2026-04-24 Truist Securities maintain Sell $45.00
2026-04-22 BMO Capital initiate Market Perform $52.00
2026-04-21 Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Neutral $54.00
2026-04-21 B of A Securities maintain Neutral $55.00

No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions for the current quarter show 27 downward revisions vs 1 upward in the last 30 days, with the current quarter EPS estimate falling from $1.34 to $1.28. Full-year estimates are also being trimmed slightly. The trend is clearly negative.

Firm Track Record — Macquarie

Macquarie accuracy: 55% on 441 calls | avg return: 5.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Monness, Crespi, Hardt 100% 3/3 19.5% top tier
Goldman Sachs 100% 4/4 4.2% top tier
JP Morgan 100% 3/3 2.8% top tier
BMO Capital 80% 4/5 10.6% top tier
Susquehanna 80% 4/5 9.7% top tier
B of A Securities 67% 2/3 -9.6% top tier
Baird 67% 4/6 -0.3% top tier
Canaccord Genuity 60% 3/5 3% above average
Barclays 60% 3/5 3% above average
UBS 60% 3/5 3.2% above average

Macquarie has a 55% accuracy rate on 441 scored calls with a 5.6% average return, placing it below average among firms covering PYPL. Top-tier firms include Monness Crespi Hardt (100% on 3 calls, 19.5% avg return), Goldman Sachs (100% on 4 calls, 4.2% avg return), and JP Morgan (100% on 3 calls, 2.8% avg return). Bottom-tier firms include Wolfe Research (50% on 2 calls, -21.2% avg return) and RBC Capital (50% on 8 calls, 2.1% avg return).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 27, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0y $5.31 $5.17 — $5.53 $34.3B ↑1 ↓0
+1y $5.76 $5.27 — $6.08 $35.8B ↑1 ↓0
0q $1.28 $1.25 — $1.49 $8.5B ↑1 ↓0
+1q $1.33 $1.25 — $1.48 $8.6B ↑2 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Congressional
Mark Alford (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Byron Donalds (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Byron Donalds (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
SOUND SHORE MANAGEMENT INC /CT/ — exit (-100%)
Institutional
Fund 1 Investments, LLC — exit (-100%)

Insider selling is notable: four sales in the past six weeks totaling ~$575k, including C-suite sales by Keller Frank and Kereere Suzan. No insider buys. Congressional activity is mixed: one sell (Rep. Alford) and two buys (Rep. Donalds) in March, all small amounts. Institutional activity shows a large new position from Norges Bank ($950M) but also exits from Sound Shore Management and Two Sigma trimming 74.5%. Short interest data is unavailable. The insider selling aligns with the bearish analyst signal, while the Norges Bank entry provides a contrarian bullish data point.

Actionable Insight

The Macquarie downgrade reinforces the prevailing bearish consensus, supported by deteriorating EPS revisions and persistent insider selling. Traders should stay short or avoid long positions until the July 27 earnings report provides a clearer catalyst.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

12 reports for PYPL
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 3 of 3 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +9.78%May 16, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PYPL — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 6, 2026
6d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$46.20 $44.93▲ +2.75%▲ +5.04%$41.53 (+10.10%)
May 31, 2026
12d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 1/10
$73.87 $74.82▲ +1.29%▲ +0.65%$41.53 (−43.78%)
May 22, 2026
21d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$51.20 $50.93▼ −0.53%▼ −0.58%$41.53 (−18.88%)
May 16, 2026
27d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 3/10
$49.80 $49.76▲ +0.08%▲ +1.06%$41.53 (+16.60%)
May 8, 2026
5w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$45.06 $44.37▼ −1.53%▼ −1.45%$41.53 (−7.83%)
May 7, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$46.20 $45.23▼ −2.09%▼ −3.60%$41.53 (−10.10%)
May 1, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$73.87 $74.82▲ +1.29%▲ +0.65%$41.53 (−43.78%)
Apr 29, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$50.93 $46.49▼ −8.71%▼ −11.82%$41.53 (−18.45%)
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$51.20 $49.37▼ −3.57%▼ −3.62%$41.53 (−18.88%)
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$45.84 $49.56▲ +8.12%▲ +4.60%$41.53 (−9.39%)
Showing 10 of 12

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (48h 49m)

Subscribe to SecBot

Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence

Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.

Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access