PUBM PubMatic, Inc.

BULLISH Impact: 2/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 24d 12h ago SEC analyst-PUBM-brileyse-20260227
7 firms acted on PUBM: B. Riley Securities, Rosenblatt, Lake Street, B. Riley Securities, Scotiabank, Raymond James, Wolfe Research
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
PUBM ▲ +30.12% at T+60d
LONG call ✓ call won +30.12% · α vs SPY +20.43% · entry $8.10 → $10.54
Last close $11.24 (close Jun 8) · +38.77% from $8.10 entry
Entry anchored
Feb 26, 06:29 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+0.99%
call +0.99% · α +0.63%
$8.18
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
+10.00%
call +10.00% · α +11.69%
$8.91
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
+1.11%
call +1.11% · α +8.39%
$8.19
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
+30.12%
call +30.12% · α +20.43%
$10.54
settled 15d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

B. Riley Securities upgraded PubMatic (PUBM) from Neutral to Buy on Feb 27, 2026, raising its price target to $10.50 from $10. The upgrade is part of a 7-firm cluster action on the same day, though the other six firms maintained their existing ratings. B. Riley has a 54% accuracy rate on 986 calls with an average return of 10%, placing it below average among firms covering PUBM. Consensus is heavily bullish: 13 of 19 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell. The mean price target is $12.89, implying 33% upside from the current $9.72; B. Riley's $10.50 target is well below consensus. EPS estimates have been revised upward over the past 30 days — the current-quarter EPS went from -$0.04 to -$0.01, and the full-year 2026 EPS rose from $0.25 to $0.29. Insider selling is notable: CEO Rajeev Goel sold $1.23M worth in three tranches from Apr 13 to May 14, 2026. Institutional buying is strong — Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Two Sigma all doubled their positions. Short interest is elevated at 64% of float. The upgrade is directionally bullish but from a below-average firm with a below-consensus target, making it a modest positive signal at best.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+0
Final Score
2/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
13 (68%)
Hold
6
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
9
Mean PT
$12.89
Median PT
$12.00
High PT
$21.00
Low PT
$8.00
Current Price
$9.72
Implied Upside
+32.6%

Of 19 analysts covering PUBM: 4 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. That's 68% Buy-equivalent, 32% Hold, 0% Sell. Consensus is decisively bullish, though the high proportion of Hold ratings suggests some caution.

Current price: $9.72. Mean target: $12.89 (median $12.00). High: $21.00 (Rosenblatt). Low: $8.00. Implied upside to mean: 33%. B. Riley's $10.50 target sits 19% below the mean and 50% below the high — a below-consensus view even after the upgrade.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-08 RBC Capital maintain Outperform $13.00
2026-04-23 Rosenblatt maintain Buy $21.00
2026-03-20 Rosenblatt maintain Buy
2026-02-27 Rosenblatt maintain Buy $21.00
2026-02-27 B. Riley Securities upgrade Buy $10.50
2025-11-11 B. Riley Securities maintain Neutral $10.00
2025-11-11 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $13.00
2025-11-11 Rosenblatt maintain Buy $20.00
2025-09-09 Rosenblatt maintain Buy $17.00
2025-08-21 Rosenblatt initiate Buy $17.00

No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions are positive: current-quarter EPS revised from -$0.04 to -$0.01 over 30 days, and full-year 2026 EPS from $0.25 to $0.29. Revenue estimates for the current year rose from $290M to $294M. The revision trend is clearly upward.

Firm Track Record — B. Riley Securities

B. Riley Securities accuracy: 54% on 986 calls | avg return: 10%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Citizens Capital Markets 100% 2/2 18.5% top tier
Macquarie 100% 2/2 5.7% top tier
RBC Capital 67% 4/6 -2.2% top tier
Rosenblatt 67% 2/3 -9.6% top tier
Scotiabank 67% 2/3 -1.6% top tier
JMP Securities 50% 1/2 -9.9% below average
Lake Street 33% 1/3 9.1% below average
Evercore ISI Group 33% 1/3 -11.6% below average
B. Riley Securities 33% 1/3 -4.8% below average

B. Riley Securities has a 54% accuracy rate on 986 calls with an average return of 10%. Among firms covering PUBM, B. Riley ranks below average — its 33% accuracy on 3 PUBM calls is the worst of the group. The best-performing firms on PUBM are Citizens Capital Markets (100% on 2 calls) and Macquarie (100% on 2 calls). RBC Capital (67% on 6 calls) and Rosenblatt (67% on 3 calls) also outperform B. Riley.

Earnings Estimates

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $-0.01 $-0.08 — $0.07 $68.9M ↑1 ↓0
+1q $0.02 $-0.06 — $0.11 $71.1M ↑0 ↓0
+1y $0.49 $0.28 — $0.70 $317.0M ↑3 ↓0
0y $0.28 $0.18 — $0.42 $293.8M ↑2 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Institutional
FMR LLC — add (44%)
Institutional
MORGAN STANLEY — doubled (100.7%)
Institutional
UBS Group AG — doubled (254.7%)
Short Interest
Short: 323,777 | Exempt: 3,841 | TRF Vol: 505,793 | Short Ratio: 64.0% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider selling is a bearish divergence: CEO Rajeev Goel sold $1.23M in three tranches (Apr 13, Apr 27, May 14), and two other executives sold ~$237K combined. No insider buys. Institutional buying is strongly bullish — Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Two Sigma all doubled their positions. Short interest is 64% of float, extremely elevated and suggesting heavy bearish positioning. No congressional trades. The insider selling and high short interest diverge from the bullish analyst consensus, creating a mixed signal.

Actionable Insight

The upgrade from B. Riley is a modest positive, but the below-consensus target, below-average firm accuracy, and heavy insider selling argue against chasing this call. The 64% short interest could fuel a squeeze if earnings surprise positively, but the insider sales suggest management sees limited near-term upside. Wait for a pullback toward $9 or confirmation from a higher-accuracy firm before acting.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

12 reports for PUBM
Performance horizon
60% Hit rate 3 of 5 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +7.86%Apr 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PUBM — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 19, 2026
21d ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$9.88 $11.44▼ −15.79%▼ −13.99%$11.24 (−13.77%)
May 16, 2026
24d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 2/10
$8.10 $8.91▲ +10.00%▲ +11.69%$11.24 (+38.77%)
Apr 22, 2026
6w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$9.16 $9.72▲ +6.11%▲ +4.64%$11.24 (+22.71%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 7/10
$9.79 $9.16▼ −6.44%▼ −7.42%$11.24 (+14.81%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 6/10
$9.79 $9.16▼ −6.44%▼ −7.42%$11.24 (+14.81%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$9.79 $9.16▲ +6.44%▲ +7.42%$11.24 (−14.81%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$9.79 $9.16▲ +6.44%▲ +7.42%$11.24 (−14.81%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 7/10
$9.79 $9.16▼ −6.44%▼ −7.42%$11.24 (+14.81%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 7/10
$9.79 $9.16▼ −6.44%▼ −7.42%$11.24 (+14.81%)
Apr 15, 2026
7w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$9.79 $9.16▼ −6.44%▼ −7.42%$11.24 (+14.81%)
Showing 10 of 12

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