PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Guggenheim upgraded PANW to Neutral from Sell on Jan 5 as part of a 22-firm analyst cluster. The consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish: 79% of analysts rate it a Buy (50 out of 63), with a mean price target of $206.14 (+15% from $179.32). Guggenheim's accuracy on 1,149 calls is 52% with an average return of 5.1% — below top-tier firms like JP Morgan (100% on 5 calls). The next earnings report on May 18 is within 30 days, and EPS revisions are sharply lower: 40 cuts in the current quarter vs. 1 upgrade. Insider trades are mixed, but CEO Nikesh Arora bought $10M of stock in March, while short interest is elevated at 55.8% of off-exchange volume. Institutional flows are split: Norges Bank started a $1.4B position, Renaissance doubled, but FMR trimmed 26.7%. The upgrade from Sell is a modest positive, but the cautious Neutral stance contrasts with the bullish consensus, and the deteriorating earnings picture warrants caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus across 63 analysts: 16 Strong Buy, 34 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. That's 79% Buy-rated, 19% Hold, 2% Sell — overwhelmingly bullish relative to the S&P 500 average. Guggenheim's Neutral is more cautious than the prevailing view.
Mean price target $206.14, median $203, high $265 (from Baird), low $114. Current price $179.32 implies 15.0% upside to the mean. Guggenheim did not set a PT, but a Neutral rating typically implies the stock is fairly valued near current levels — well below the consensus mean.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Freedom Broker | maintain | Buy | $210.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | Wells Fargo | initiate | Overweight | $200.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $210.00 |
| 2026-02-19 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $200.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | Bernstein | maintain | Outperform | $209.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $190.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | BMO Capital | maintain | Outperform | $200.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $220.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $220.00 |
| 2026-02-18 | Guggenheim | reiterate | Neutral | — |
No upgrades or downgrades on PANW in the last 30 days. However, EPS revisions for the current quarter show 1 upward revision vs. 40 downward revisions over the past 30 days. For next quarter, 5 up vs. 9 down. Estimates are clearly trending lower, which is a bearish signal.
Firm Track Record — Guggenheim
Guggenheim accuracy: 52% on 1149 calls | avg return: 5.1%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | 100% | 3/3 | -1.6% | top tier |
| Stifel | 100% | 3/3 | 9.5% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 100% | 2/2 | 12.7% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 100% | 5/5 | 6.8% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 7.3% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 80% | 4/5 | 6.1% | top tier |
| Baird | 75% | 3/4 | 6.1% | top tier |
| Bernstein | 71% | 5/7 | 5% | top tier |
| Wedbush | 71% | 5/7 | 3.1% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 71% | 5/7 | 4.8% | top tier |
Guggenheim has 52% accuracy on 1,149 analyst calls, with an average return of 5.1%. This is below the peer group average. Top-performing firms on PANW include JP Morgan (100% on 5 calls, +6.8% avg return), Stifel (100% on 3, +9.5%), and Stephens & Co. (100% on 2, +12.7%). Guggenheim is not a high-conviction firm on this name.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 18, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $3.69 | $3.65 — $3.97 | $11.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $2.30 | $1.69 — $3.19 | $13.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.52 | $0.33 — $0.65 | $3.3B | ↑5 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.80 | $0.78 — $0.95 | $2.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider activity is mixed: CEO Nikesh Arora bought $10M on Mar 27, but other executives sold ~$2.1M in April. Congressional trades show 3 buys (Rep. Moskowitz, $1k-$15k each) and 2 sells (Reps. Gottheimer and Jackson). Institutional flows: Norges Bank new $1.4B position and Renaissance Technologies doubled (+1,226%), but FMR trimmed 26.7% and Two Sigma nearly exited. Short interest is high at 55.8% of off-exchange volume, suggesting significant bearish bets. The analyst upgrade is divergent from the downward EPS revisions and high short interest.
Actionable Insight
The upgrade from Sell to Neutral is a modest positive, but earnings revisions are collapsing and short interest is elevated. Traders should wait for the May 18 earnings report before taking a directional bet, as the stock could gap either way.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
|
8-K
| $278.99 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $266.33 (−4.54%) |
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $181.98 $188.70 | ▲ +3.69% | ▲ +2.61% | $266.33 (+46.35%) |
|
May 27, 2026
13d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $257.11 $278.71 | ▲ +8.40% | ▲ +8.08% | $266.33 (+3.58%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $181.98 $188.70 | ▲ +3.69% | ▲ +2.61% | $266.33 (+46.35%) |
|
Apr 11, 2026
8w ago
|
8-K
| $162.44 $169.49 | ▲ +4.34% | ▲ +1.04% | $266.33 (+63.95%) |
|
Apr 1, 2026
10w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $160.60 $166.87 | ▼ −3.90% | ▼ −0.14% | $266.33 (−65.83%) |
|
Mar 27, 2026
10w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $146.69 $161.81 | ▲ +10.31% | ▲ +6.45% | $266.33 (+81.55%) |
|
Feb 28, 2026
14w ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $150.08 $164.64 | ▲ +9.70% | ▲ +10.91% | $266.33 (+77.45%) |
US Market Status
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