PAGP PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP

BEARISH Impact: 7/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed May 8, 2026 Processed 1mo ago SEC 0001581990-26-000015
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
PAGP ▲ +5.48% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -5.48% · α vs SPY -5.45% · entry $23.19 → $24.46
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Currently $24.38 · -5.13% from $23.19 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 8, 04:26 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+1.38%
call -1.38% · α -1.15%
$23.51
settled 5w ago
T+5d
+4.01%
call -4.01% · α -2.55%
$24.12
settled 29d ago
T+20d
+5.48%
call -5.48% · α -5.45%
$24.46
settled 5d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) reported Q1 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.10, an 85% miss vs consensus of $0.67, and net income fell 71% YoY. However, revenue beat at $12.47B (+8.7% YoY) and the company raised full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance by $130M to $2.880B, citing a constructive oil macro and extended NGL ownership. The sharp earnings decline overshadows the guidance raise, making this a bearish report.

Key Financial Metrics

Free Cash Flow
$185.0M

Actionable Insight

The severe EPS miss likely pressures PAGP shares near term, but the guidance raise signals improving fundamentals into H2 2026. Traders should watch the NGL divestiture closing (expected May 2026) and subsequent deleveraging, which could unlock value. The 7.5% distribution yield provides a floor.

Key Facts

  • Q1 2026 GAAP EPS $0.10 vs consensus $0.67 (miss of 85%)
  • GAAP net income attributable to PAGP $20M, down 76% YoY from $84M
  • Revenue $12.47B, up 8.7% YoY, beating $11.99B consensus
  • PAA adjusted EBITDA attributable to PAA $730M, down 3% YoY
  • Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $2.880B midpoint (from $2.75B), +$130M
  • Distribution increased 10% YoY to $0.4175/unit ($1.67 annualized, 7.5% yield)
  • Pro forma leverage 4.1x; expects to return to 3.25-3.75x range after NGL divestiture closing

Financial Impact

EPS miss of $0.57 (85% below consensus) and 71% YoY decline in EPS; revenue beat by $480M (4%); guidance raise of $130M in midpoint Adjusted EBITDA

epsnet incomerevenueadjusted EBITDA guidance

Risk Factors

  • Further earnings misses if commodity environment weakens
  • Delay or failure of NGL divestiture to Keyera
  • Higher leverage than target range (4.1x) until divestiture closes
  • Permian production slowdown impacting crude oil volumes

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pipe Lines (No Natural Gas)
Analyst Consensus
52% bullish (21 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001581990-26-000015
Document: pagp-20260508.htm0001581990-26-000015
Document: 0001581990-26-000015-index-headers.html0001581990-26-000015
Document: 0001581990-26-000015-index.html0001581990-26-000015
Document: 0001581990-26-000015.txt0001581990-26-000015
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001581990-26-000015
9 reports for PAGP
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for PAGP — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 2, 2026
11d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$24.90 $24.83▼ −0.28%▲ +0.44%$24.38 (−2.09%)
May 20, 2026
23d ago
3
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$25.12 $25.51▲ +1.55%▲ +1.36%$24.38 (−2.95%)
May 13, 2026
4w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$24.12 $24.56▲ +1.82%▲ +3.05%$24.38 (+1.08%)
May 13, 2026
4w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$24.12 $24.56▲ +1.82%▲ +3.05%$24.38 (+1.08%)
May 12, 2026
4w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$23.51 $23.51· 0.00%▲ +0.00%$24.38 (+3.70%)
May 8, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$23.19 $23.51▼ −1.38%▼ −1.15%$24.38 (−5.13%)
Apr 10, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$23.18 $23.58▲ +1.74%▲ +0.76%$24.38 (+5.19%)
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
EFFECT
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$23.75 $23.49▼ −1.08%▼ −3.62%$24.38 (+2.67%)
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
S-3ASR / S-3
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$23.86 $23.72▼ −0.61%▼ −1.35%$24.38 (+2.16%)
Showing 9 of 9

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (48h 46m)

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