ORLA Orla Mining Ltd.
Executive Summary
A mixed institutional cluster in Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) for Q3 2025 shows 8 buyers accumulating $77.1M in net new positions (led by Vanguard, Amundi, D.E. Shaw, and Citadel) while 4 sellers reduced holdings by $21.1M (led by UBS near-exiting and Morgan Stanley trimming). The buying is dominated by mega-passive index funds and quant funds, which weakens the signal of a shared active thesis. The selling is concentrated in passive rebalancing and quant trims, not fundamental deterioration. Historical performance on prior ORLA reports is poor (0% win rate at T+20, avg alpha -25.6%), and calibration data shows low observed probability of positive outcomes at scores 6-8, warranting a conservative impact score.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $56.0M
▲ Buyers (8)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard | DOUBLED | +1628.2% | $35.1M | $33.2M |
| Amundi | ADD | +35.5% | $54.5M | $19.5M |
| D.E. Shaw | DOUBLED | +246.6% | $15.6M | $11.4M |
| Citadel | DOUBLED | +239.9% | $11.1M | $8.1M |
| BofA | ADD | +25.8% | $10.0M | $2.6M |
| Legal & General Group | ADD | +31.8% | $5.5M | $1.6M |
| Nuveen | ADD | +33.1% | $2.4M | $736.0K |
| Wells Fargo | DOUBLED | +5265.8% | $22.0K | $22.0K |
▼ Sellers (4)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | NEAR_EXIT | -88.2% | $15.5M | -$13.5M |
| Morgan Stanley | TRIM | -25.7% | $16.1M | -$3.2M |
| Invesco | TRIM | -45% | $5.9M | -$2.4M |
| Two Sigma | TRIM | -34.5% | $6.6M | -$1.9M |
Actionable Insight
The cluster is too mixed and passive-dominated to signal a strong directional thesis. Monitor next 13F for follow-through from active managers (D.E. Shaw, Citadel) and whether UBS's near-exit becomes a full exit. Given poor historical calibration on ORLA reports, avoid over-weighting this signal.
Key Facts
- 8 institutional buyers added $77.1M in net new positions, with Vanguard doubling its stake (+1,628% shares) to $35.1M and Amundi adding $19.5M to reach $54.5M
- 4 institutional sellers reduced holdings by $21.1M, led by UBS near-exiting (-88.2% shares, -$13.5M) and Morgan Stanley trimming (-25.7%, -$3.2M)
- Quant funds D.E. Shaw and Citadel both doubled their positions, adding $11.4M and $8.1M respectively
- Passive/index funds dominate both sides (Vanguard, BofA, Amundi buying; Invesco, UBS, Morgan Stanley selling), diluting the signal of a coordinated active thesis
- Historical reports on ORLA have a 0% win rate at T+20 with average alpha of -25.6% vs SPY, suggesting prior bullish calls were over-scored
Financial Impact
8 buyers accumulated $77.1M in new positions while 4 sellers reduced holdings by $21.1M, net institutional inflow of approximately $56.0M
Risk Factors
- 45-day 13F reporting lag means positions may have already been unwound
- Passive/index fund buying may reflect index rebalancing, not fundamental conviction
- Historical ORLA reports show 0% win rate at T+20 with large negative alpha, suggesting the stock has been a poor performer following prior cluster signals
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-ORLA-2025-Q3 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $10.32 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
|
Jun 10, 2026
4d ago
|
6-K
| $10.09 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
|
Jun 5, 2026
9d ago
|
6-K
| $11.30 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
6-K
| $11.33 $10.81 | ▼ −4.59% | ▼ −1.99% | — |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
6-K
| $11.33 $10.81 | ▼ −4.59% | ▼ −1.99% | — |
|
Jun 1, 2026
13d ago
|
6-K
| $12.32 $11.93 | ▲ +3.17% | ▲ +3.31% | — |
|
May 21, 2026
24d ago
|
6-K
| $12.26 $11.99 | ▼ −2.28% | ▼ −2.73% | — |
|
May 13, 2026
4w ago
|
6-K
| $14.58 $14.79 | ▲ +1.44% | ▲ +0.66% | — |
|
May 11, 2026
4w ago
|
6-K
| $14.81 $14.47 | ▼ −2.30% | ▼ −2.16% | — |
|
May 11, 2026
4w ago
|
6-K
| $14.81 $14.47 | ▼ −2.30% | ▼ −2.16% | — |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access