NVDA NVIDIA CORP

BULLISH Impact: 5/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 9d 12h ago SEC analyst-NVDA-hsbc-20251015
11 firms acted on NVDA: RBC Capital, HSBC, DA Davidson, Goldman Sachs, Seaport Global, Tigress Financial, Phillip Securities, Redburn Atlantic, William Blair, New Street Research, New Street Research
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
NVDA ▲ +2.76% at T+60d
LONG call ✓ call won +2.76% · α vs SPY -1.75% · entry $179.90 → $184.87
Last close $208.64 (close Jun 8) · +15.98% from $179.90 entry
Entry anchored
Oct 15, 07:21 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+1.06%
call +1.06% · α +1.73%
$181.81
settled 8mo ago
T+5d
+0.21%
call +0.21% · α -0.20%
$180.28
settled 8mo ago
T+20d
+7.75%
call +7.75% · α +5.02%
$193.85
settled 7mo ago
T+60d
+2.76%
call +2.76% · α -1.75%
$184.87
settled 5mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

HSBC upgraded NVDA to Buy from Hold with a $320 price target, up from $200, representing 51.6% upside from the current $211.14. The upgrade is part of an 11-firm cluster action on NVDA, signaling broad analyst attention. HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return, placing it near the middle of the pack. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 66 of 71 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, with only 4 Holds and 1 Sell. The mean price target is $296.81, median $285, high $500, low $180 — HSBC's $320 sits above the median but below the mean. Momentum is strong: 40 EPS revisions up in the last 7 days for the next fiscal year, with zero downgrades. Insider selling is present but modest in size, and institutional activity shows a massive new position from Norges Bank ($62.2B) alongside a near-exit from Renaissance Technologies. The bottom line: HSBC's upgrade aligns with a bullish consensus and rising estimates, making it a confirming rather than contrarian signal — traders should view this as incremental support for the bull case, not a catalyst for immediate re-rating.

Impact Score

Base Score
4/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
5/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
66 (93%)
Hold
4
Sell / Strong Sell
1
Total Analysts
58
Mean PT
$296.81
Median PT
$285.00
High PT
$500.00
Low PT
$180.00
Current Price
$211.14
Implied Upside
+40.6%

66 of 71 analysts rate NVDA Buy or Strong Buy (93%), 4 Hold (5.6%), 1 Sell (1.4%). Consensus is heavily bullish, with 24 Strong Buy and 42 Buy ratings. The lone Sell is an outlier.

Current price: $211.14. Mean target: $296.81 (implied upside +40.6%). Median: $285 (+35%). High: $500 (+136.8%). Low: $180 (-14.8%). HSBC's $320 is above the median but below the mean, in the upper quartile of targets.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-27 Tigress Financial maintain Strong Buy $425.00
2026-05-21 UBS maintain Buy $280.00
2026-05-21 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $413.00
2026-05-21 DA Davidson maintain Buy $300.00
2026-05-21 Truist Securities reiterate Buy $307.00
2026-05-21 RBC Capital maintain Outperform $270.00
2026-05-21 Cantor Fitzgerald reiterate Overweight $350.00
2026-05-21 Wedbush maintain Outperform $330.00
2026-05-21 Stifel maintain Buy $282.00
2026-05-21 JP Morgan maintain Overweight $280.00

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive: 40 revisions up in the last 7 days for the next fiscal year, 40 up for the current year, with only 1-2 down. Estimates are being revised higher across all periods.

Firm Track Record — HSBC

HSBC accuracy: 55% on 263 calls | avg return: 5.5%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Jefferies 100% 4/4 8.9% top tier
New Street Research 100% 2/2 19.5% top tier
Piper Sandler 86% 6/7 20.3% top tier
Raymond James 83% 5/6 27.8% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 80% 8/10 14.7% top tier
Needham 78% 7/9 11.7% top tier
UBS 78% 7/9 17.8% top tier
DA Davidson 75% 9/12 15.7% top tier
Deutsche Bank 75% 3/4 15.2% top tier
Benchmark 73% 8/11 8.6% top tier

HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return, placing it in the middle tier. Top performers on NVDA include New Street Research (100% on 2 calls, avg return 19.5%) and Piper Sandler (86% on 7 calls, avg return 20.3%). Worst: JP Morgan (67% on 6 calls, avg return 7.3%).

Earnings Estimates

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
+1y $12.66 $9.65 — $16.00 $547.7B ↑40 ↓0
0y $8.94 $8.20 — $9.79 $391.5B ↑40 ↓0
0q $2.08 $2.03 — $2.20 $91.7B ↑34 ↓0
+1q $2.35 $2.13 — $2.63 $102.9B ↑33 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Congressional
Daniel Meuser (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
John McGuire (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Lizzie Fletcher (democrat) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
Mawer Investment Management Ltd. — doubled (527.4%)
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — near_exit (-84.5%)
Short Interest
Short: 30,546,481 | Exempt: 168,882 | Total: 68,779,100 | Ratio: 44.4%

Insider trades show 5 sells in the last 2 months, including EVP Mark Stevens ($17.3M) and CFO Colette Kress ($123K) — modest selling, not a cluster. Congressional activity is mixed: 1 buy (Rep. McGuire) and 4 sells (Reps. Meuser, Fletcher, Moore). Institutional changes show a massive new $62.2B position from Norges Bank, a new $634M from Dodge & Cox, and a near-exit from Renaissance Technologies (-84.5%). Short interest ratio is 44.4%, elevated. The analyst upgrade aligns with institutional buying and rising estimates, but insider selling and high short interest create mild divergence.

Actionable Insight

HSBC's upgrade confirms the bullish consensus but adds limited new information — traders should treat this as incremental support for the bull case, not a standalone catalyst. The strong EPS revision trend and large institutional buys outweigh modest insider selling.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

20 reports for NVDA
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 3 of 4 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +18.74%Feb 25, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for NVDA — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 7, 2026
2d ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$204.05 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$208.64 (+2.25%)
Jun 5, 2026
4d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$214.53 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$208.64 (−2.75%)
Jun 5, 2026
4d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$208.58 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$208.64 (+0.03%)
Jun 4, 2026
5d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$214.53 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$208.64 (−2.75%)
Jun 1, 2026
9d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$224.33 $205.10▼ −8.57%▼ −5.82%$208.64 (−6.99%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$179.90 $180.28▲ +0.21%▼ −0.20%$208.64 (+15.98%)
May 20, 2026
20d ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$219.52 $211.52▼ −3.64%▼ −5.49%$208.64 (−4.95%)
May 12, 2026
28d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$225.84 $220.61▼ −2.31%▼ −1.16%$208.64 (−7.61%)
May 8, 2026
4w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$219.32 $222.20▲ +1.31%▲ +1.40%$208.64 (−4.87%)
May 1, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 5/10
$179.90 $180.28▲ +0.21%▼ −0.20%$208.64 (+15.98%)
Showing 10 of 20

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