NKE NIKE, Inc.

BEARISH Impact: 6/10 ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
Processed 27d 11h ago SEC analyst-NKE-hsbc-20260413
HSBC double downgrade: Buy → Hold
Latest settled — T+20d
NKE ▼ -1.14% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +1.14% · α vs SPY +8.87% · entry $42.89 → $42.40
Next anchor: T+60d in 28d
Last close $43.23 (close Jun 8) · -0.80% from $42.89 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
Apr 13, 10:20 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+3.01%
call -3.01% · α -1.80%
$44.18
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+8.42%
call -8.42% · α -5.12%
$46.50
settled 7w ago
T+20d
-1.14%
call +1.14% · α +8.87%
$42.40
settled 4w ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 28d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

HSBC issued a double downgrade on April 13, moving from Buy to Hold and slashing its price target 47% to $48, the most aggressive bearish call among 33 analysts. The stock trades at $42.35, 31% below the consensus mean of $61.08. HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return, ranking near the top of firms covering this ticker. Consensus is heavily tilted bullish (70% Buy/Strong Buy) but momentum is decisively negative — 6 downgrades in the last 30 days vs. 0 upgrades. EPS revisions are cascading lower: 23 downward revisions in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year, and 31 for next year. Insider buying from the CEO and other executives totaling ~$3.7M in early April diverges sharply from the analyst downgrade wave. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float, signaling heavy bearish positioning. The next earnings report on June 24 adds timing pressure. This is a high-conviction contrarian call from a top-tier firm that amplifies the bearish consensus shift.

Impact Score

Base Score
4/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
6/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
23 (51%)
Hold
20
Sell / Strong Sell
2
Total Analysts
33
Mean PT
$61.08
Median PT
$55.80
High PT
$120.00
Low PT
$23.00
Current Price
$42.35
Implied Upside
+44.2%

Consensus is 70% Buy/Strong Buy (23 of 33 analysts), 24% Hold (8 analysts), and 6% Sell (2 analysts). Despite the bullish majority, the direction of consensus is rapidly shifting bearish — 6 downgrades in the last 30 days with zero upgrades. HSBC's Hold call is now one of the most bearish on the street, alongside BNP Paribas' Underperform at $23.

Mean target is $61.08, median $55.80, high $120, low $23. Current price $42.35 implies 44% upside to the mean but HSBC's $48 target is 21% below the mean and 14% below the median. The wide range ($23-$120) reflects extreme disagreement. HSBC's target is the second-lowest among major firms, behind only BNP Paribas at $23.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-08 Wells Fargo downgrade Equal-Weight $45.00
2026-04-13 HSBC downgrade Hold $48.00
2026-04-10 Piper Sandler downgrade Neutral $50.00
2026-04-02 Goldman Sachs downgrade Neutral $52.00
2026-04-01 Citigroup maintain Neutral $53.00
2026-04-01 JP Morgan downgrade Neutral $52.00
2026-04-01 Barclays maintain Overweight $67.00
2026-04-01 BNP Paribas maintain Underperform $23.00
2026-04-01 Piper Sandler maintain Overweight $60.00
2026-04-01 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $57.00

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 6 downgrades (Wells Fargo, HSBC, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Citigroup maintain). EPS revisions are overwhelmingly negative: 23 downward revisions vs. 8 upward for the current fiscal year, and 31 down vs. 1 up for next year. The Q2 2026 EPS estimate has been cut 28% from $0.63 to $0.45 in 30 days.

Firm Track Record — HSBC

HSBC accuracy: 55% on 263 calls | avg return: 5.5%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Wedbush 67% 2/3 0.2% top tier
TD Cowen 60% 3/5 2.5% above average
Williams Trading 50% 2/4 8.9% below average
Goldman Sachs 50% 2/4 10.1% below average
Keybanc 50% 1/2 2.3% below average
Oppenheimer 50% 1/2 4.3% below average
Citigroup 43% 3/7 2.2% below average
RBC Capital 38% 3/8 -1.2% below average
Evercore ISI Group 33% 2/6 0.7% below average
BMO Capital 33% 1/3 -5.1% below average

HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return, placing it in the top tier of firms covering this ticker. The best-performing firm is Wedbush (67% on 3 calls), while the worst is Guggenheim (20% on 5 calls). HSBC's track record gives this double downgrade above-average credibility.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jun 24, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0y $1.50 $1.38 — $1.70 $46.3B ↑0 ↓0
+1q $0.45 $0.39 — $0.51 $11.5B ↑1 ↓0
0q $0.11 $0.05 — $0.16 $10.8B ↑0 ↓0
+1y $1.85 $1.51 — $2.35 $46.6B ↑0 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
5 buys / 0 sells
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — trim (-45.5%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
Fund 1 Investments, LLC — exit (-100%)
Short Interest
Short: 3,533,464 | Exempt: 1,536 | TRF Vol: 6,050,762 | Short Ratio: 58.4% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider buying is a strong bullish divergence: CEO Tim Cook bought $1.06M on April 10, and other executives added ~$2.7M in early April. Institutional activity is mixed — Bank of America trimmed 45.5% of its position, but Norges Bank initiated a new $830M stake. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. No congressional trades reported. The insider buying is a notable contrarian signal against the analyst downgrade wave.

Actionable Insight

The analyst downgrade cascade and collapsing EPS estimates outweigh insider buying. Short the stock or buy puts ahead of June 24 earnings, targeting the $35-$40 range. The 58.4% short ratio suggests crowded positioning, so size carefully and expect potential squeezes on any positive catalyst.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

20 reports for NKE
Performance horizon
56% Hit rate 5 of 9 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +26.31%Feb 28, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for NKE — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 9, 2026
today
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$43.97 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$43.23 (−1.68%)
Jun 7, 2026
2d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$44.15 $41.88▼ −5.14%▼ −5.35%$43.23 (−2.08%)
Jun 1, 2026
8d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
MIXED ★ 5/10
$44.19 $42.62▼ −3.56%▼ −7.17%$43.23 (−2.17%)
Jun 1, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$44.61 $43.99▼ −1.39%▼ −5.16%$43.23 (−3.09%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 2/10
$55.69 $53.44▼ −4.04%▼ −1.85%$43.23 (−22.37%)
May 13, 2026
27d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$42.89 $46.50▼ −8.42%▼ −5.12%$43.23 (−0.80%)
May 13, 2026
28d ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$42.35 $44.18▼ −4.32%▼ −4.46%$43.23 (−2.09%)
May 10, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$42.62 $46.02▼ −7.98%▼ −3.47%$43.23 (−1.44%)
May 8, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$44.15 $42.02▲ +4.82%▲ +6.28%$43.23 (+2.08%)
May 6, 2026
5w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$43.83 $42.35▼ −3.37%▼ −4.50%$43.23 (−1.36%)
Showing 10 of 20

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