NKE NIKE, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
HSBC issued a double downgrade on April 13, moving from Buy to Hold and slashing its price target 47% to $48, the most aggressive bearish call among 33 analysts. The stock trades at $42.35, 31% below the consensus mean of $61.08. HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return, ranking near the top of firms covering this ticker. Consensus is heavily tilted bullish (70% Buy/Strong Buy) but momentum is decisively negative — 6 downgrades in the last 30 days vs. 0 upgrades. EPS revisions are cascading lower: 23 downward revisions in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year, and 31 for next year. Insider buying from the CEO and other executives totaling ~$3.7M in early April diverges sharply from the analyst downgrade wave. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float, signaling heavy bearish positioning. The next earnings report on June 24 adds timing pressure. This is a high-conviction contrarian call from a top-tier firm that amplifies the bearish consensus shift.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 70% Buy/Strong Buy (23 of 33 analysts), 24% Hold (8 analysts), and 6% Sell (2 analysts). Despite the bullish majority, the direction of consensus is rapidly shifting bearish — 6 downgrades in the last 30 days with zero upgrades. HSBC's Hold call is now one of the most bearish on the street, alongside BNP Paribas' Underperform at $23.
Mean target is $61.08, median $55.80, high $120, low $23. Current price $42.35 implies 44% upside to the mean but HSBC's $48 target is 21% below the mean and 14% below the median. The wide range ($23-$120) reflects extreme disagreement. HSBC's target is the second-lowest among major firms, behind only BNP Paribas at $23.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Wells Fargo | downgrade | Equal-Weight | $45.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | HSBC | downgrade | Hold | $48.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | Piper Sandler | downgrade | Neutral | $50.00 |
| 2026-04-02 | Goldman Sachs | downgrade | Neutral | $52.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $53.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Neutral | $52.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $67.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | BNP Paribas | maintain | Underperform | $23.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $60.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $57.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 6 downgrades (Wells Fargo, HSBC, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Citigroup maintain). EPS revisions are overwhelmingly negative: 23 downward revisions vs. 8 upward for the current fiscal year, and 31 down vs. 1 up for next year. The Q2 2026 EPS estimate has been cut 28% from $0.63 to $0.45 in 30 days.
Firm Track Record — HSBC
HSBC accuracy: 55% on 263 calls | avg return: 5.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedbush | 67% | 2/3 | 0.2% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 60% | 3/5 | 2.5% | above average |
| Williams Trading | 50% | 2/4 | 8.9% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 2/4 | 10.1% | below average |
| Keybanc | 50% | 1/2 | 2.3% | below average |
| Oppenheimer | 50% | 1/2 | 4.3% | below average |
| Citigroup | 43% | 3/7 | 2.2% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 38% | 3/8 | -1.2% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 33% | 2/6 | 0.7% | below average |
| BMO Capital | 33% | 1/3 | -5.1% | below average |
HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return, placing it in the top tier of firms covering this ticker. The best-performing firm is Wedbush (67% on 3 calls), while the worst is Guggenheim (20% on 5 calls). HSBC's track record gives this double downgrade above-average credibility.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jun 24, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $1.50 | $1.38 — $1.70 | $46.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.45 | $0.39 — $0.51 | $11.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.11 | $0.05 — $0.16 | $10.8B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $1.85 | $1.51 — $2.35 | $46.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider buying is a strong bullish divergence: CEO Tim Cook bought $1.06M on April 10, and other executives added ~$2.7M in early April. Institutional activity is mixed — Bank of America trimmed 45.5% of its position, but Norges Bank initiated a new $830M stake. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. No congressional trades reported. The insider buying is a notable contrarian signal against the analyst downgrade wave.
Actionable Insight
The analyst downgrade cascade and collapsing EPS estimates outweigh insider buying. Short the stock or buy puts ahead of June 24 earnings, targeting the $35-$40 range. The 58.4% short ratio suggests crowded positioning, so size carefully and expect potential squeezes on any positive catalyst.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 9, 2026
today
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $43.97 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $43.23 (−1.68%) |
|
Jun 7, 2026
2d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $44.15 $41.88 | ▼ −5.14% | ▼ −5.35% | $43.23 (−2.08%) |
|
Jun 1, 2026
8d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $44.19 $42.62 | ▼ −3.56% | ▼ −7.17% | $43.23 (−2.17%) |
|
Jun 1, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $44.61 $43.99 | ▼ −1.39% | ▼ −5.16% | $43.23 (−3.09%) |
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $55.69 $53.44 | ▼ −4.04% | ▼ −1.85% | $43.23 (−22.37%) |
|
May 13, 2026
27d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $42.89 $46.50 | ▼ −8.42% | ▼ −5.12% | $43.23 (−0.80%) |
|
May 13, 2026
28d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $42.35 $44.18 | ▼ −4.32% | ▼ −4.46% | $43.23 (−2.09%) |
|
May 10, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $42.62 $46.02 | ▼ −7.98% | ▼ −3.47% | $43.23 (−1.44%) |
|
May 8, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $44.15 $42.02 | ▲ +4.82% | ▲ +6.28% | $43.23 (+2.08%) |
|
May 6, 2026
5w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $43.83 $42.35 | ▼ −3.37% | ▼ −4.50% | $43.23 (−1.36%) |
US Market Status
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