NKE NIKE, Inc.

BEARISH Impact: 4/10 ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-NKE-jpmorgan-20260401
JP Morgan double downgrade: Overweight → Neutral
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
NKE ▼ -0.54% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +0.54% · α vs SPY +10.26% · entry $44.61 → $44.37
Next anchor: T+60d in 19d
Last close $43.23 (close Jun 8) · +3.09% from $44.61 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
Apr 1, 03:35 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-0.94%
call +0.94% · α +1.02%
$44.19
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-1.39%
call +1.39% · α +5.16%
$43.99
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
-0.54%
call +0.54% · α +10.26%
$44.37
settled 6w ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 19d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

JP Morgan double downgraded Apple from Overweight to Neutral on April 1, 2026, setting a $52 price target (+17% upside). The firm has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,703 calls with a 5.6% average return. Consensus remains bullish at 82% Buy-equivalent ratings (27 of 43 analysts), but the mean target of $61.68 implies 39% upside. However, the downgrade is part of a broader negative shift: 3 downgrades in the last 30 days with zero upgrades. EPS revisions are heavily negative — 13 downgrades vs 1 upgrade for the current quarter, and 22 vs 7 for the current fiscal year. Insider buying is a strong contrarian signal: five insider buys totaling ~$3.7M in April, including CEO Tim Cook ($1.06M) and director Hill Elliott (~$2M). Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float. The next earnings date is June 24, 2026 — within 90 days. Bottom line: JP Morgan's high-accuracy downgrade aligns with deteriorating fundamentals and a wave of analyst cuts, but massive insider buying creates a sharp divergence. Traders should watch for further downside toward $50 before considering a contrarian entry.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
27 (63%)
Hold
14
Sell / Strong Sell
2
Total Analysts
33
Mean PT
$61.68
Median PT
$56.00
High PT
$120.00
Low PT
$23.00
Current Price
$44.36
Implied Upside
+39.1%

Consensus is 27 Buy (11 Strong Buy, 16 Buy), 14 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 82% Buy-equivalent. This is heavily bullish, but the downgrade from JP Morgan is a notable contrarian call that breaks from the majority. The consensus is skewed upward by older ratings; the recent downgrade wave suggests the consensus may be stale.

Mean target $61.68, median $56, high $120, low $23. Current price $44.36 implies 39% upside to mean. JP Morgan's $52 target is below the mean and median, sitting in the 30th percentile of the range. The wide spread ($23-$120) reflects extreme disagreement among analysts.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-13 HSBC downgrade Hold $48.00
2026-04-10 Piper Sandler downgrade Neutral $50.00
2026-04-02 Goldman Sachs downgrade Neutral $52.00
2026-04-01 Citigroup maintain Neutral $53.00
2026-04-01 JP Morgan downgrade Neutral $52.00
2026-04-01 Barclays maintain Overweight $67.00
2026-04-01 BNP Paribas maintain Underperform $23.00
2026-04-01 Piper Sandler maintain Overweight $60.00
2026-04-01 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $57.00
2026-04-01 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $55.00

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 3 downgrades (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Piper Sandler). EPS revisions are sharply negative: current quarter EPS down 47% from 30 days ago ($0.215 to $0.114), current fiscal year EPS down 5% ($1.574 to $1.498). 22 downward revisions vs 7 upward for FY2026. The trend is decisively bearish.

Firm Track Record — JP Morgan

JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 5703 calls | avg return: 5.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Wedbush 67% 2/3 0.2% top tier
TD Cowen 60% 3/5 2.5% above average
Williams Trading 50% 2/4 8.9% below average
Goldman Sachs 50% 2/4 10.1% below average
Keybanc 50% 1/2 2.3% below average
Oppenheimer 50% 1/2 4.3% below average
Citigroup 43% 3/7 2.2% below average
RBC Capital 38% 3/8 -1.2% below average
Evercore ISI Group 33% 2/6 0.7% below average
BMO Capital 33% 1/3 -5.1% below average

JP Morgan has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,703 calls with a 5.6% average return — above the peer average. Among firms covering AAPL, Wedbush (67% on 3 calls) and TD Cowen (60% on 5 calls) are top performers. B of A Securities (22% on 9 calls) and Telsey Advisory Group (22% on 18 calls) are the worst. JP Morgan's track record gives this downgrade above-average weight.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jun 24, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $0.11 $0.05 — $0.16 $10.8B ↑1 ↓0
+1q $0.45 $0.39 — $0.51 $11.5B ↑1 ↓0
0y $1.50 $1.38 — $1.70 $46.3B ↑0 ↓0
+1y $1.86 $1.51 — $2.35 $46.6B ↑0 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
5 buys / 0 sells
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — trim (-45.5%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
Fund 1 Investments, LLC — exit (-100%)
Short Interest
Short: 3,533,464 | Exempt: 1,536 | TRF Vol: 6,050,762 | Short Ratio: 58.4% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trading is a strong bullish divergence: 5 insider buys totaling ~$3.7M in April, including CEO Tim Cook ($1.06M) and director Hill Elliott (~$2M). No insider sales. Institutional activity is mixed: Bank of America trimmed 45.5% ($911M), but Norges Bank initiated a new $830M position. Short interest is 58.4% of float — extremely high, indicating heavy bearish positioning. Congressional trades: none. The insider buying is a powerful contrarian signal against the analyst downgrade wave.

Actionable Insight

The convergence of analyst downgrades, negative EPS revisions, and high short interest points to further downside risk toward $50. However, the massive insider buying creates a sharp divergence — consider waiting for a capitulation move below $50 before taking a long position, or use options to play the volatility into earnings on June 24.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

20 reports for NKE
Performance horizon
56% Hit rate 5 of 9 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +26.31%Feb 28, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for NKE — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 9, 2026
today
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$43.97 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$43.23 (−1.68%)
Jun 7, 2026
2d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$44.15 $41.88▼ −5.14%▼ −5.35%$43.23 (−2.08%)
Jun 1, 2026
8d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
MIXED ★ 5/10
$44.19 $42.62▼ −3.56%▼ −7.17%$43.23 (−2.17%)
Jun 1, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$44.61 $43.99▼ −1.39%▼ −5.16%$43.23 (−3.09%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 2/10
$55.69 $53.44▼ −4.04%▼ −1.85%$43.23 (−22.37%)
May 13, 2026
27d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$42.89 $46.50▼ −8.42%▼ −5.12%$43.23 (−0.80%)
May 13, 2026
28d ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$42.35 $44.18▼ −4.32%▼ −4.46%$43.23 (−2.09%)
May 10, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$42.62 $46.02▼ −7.98%▼ −3.47%$43.23 (−1.44%)
May 8, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$44.15 $42.02▲ +4.82%▲ +6.28%$43.23 (+2.08%)
May 6, 2026
5w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$43.83 $42.35▼ −3.37%▼ −4.50%$43.23 (−1.36%)
Showing 10 of 20

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