NFLX NETFLIX INC

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Executive Summary

Goldman Sachs issued a rare double upgrade on Netflix (NFLX) from Neutral to Buy on April 6, 2026, raising its price target to $120 from $100, implying 37% upside from the current $87.89. The firm has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,921 calls with an average return of 5.6%, placing it in the middle tier among covering analysts. Consensus is heavily bullish: 46 of 59 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy (78%), with a mean target of $114.56 and a high of $151.40. The double upgrade is contrarian only in magnitude — Goldman was previously on the sidelines — but aligns with the overwhelming bullish consensus. Momentum is quiet: zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions for the current fiscal year have surged: 38 upward revisions vs. 0 downward in the last 30 days, with the average EPS estimate rising from $3.16 to $3.59. Insider selling is heavy — Reed Hastings alone sold $31.8M in May — but institutional buying is massive, with Vanguard, FMR, and Morgan Stanley all more than doubling positions. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float, suggesting potential for a squeeze if earnings on July 15 deliver. Bottom line: Goldman's upgrade adds a powerful catalyst to an already bullish setup, but the heavy insider selling and high short interest create a tug-of-war. Traders should watch for a breakout above $90 on volume before committing capital.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is heavily bullish: 17 Strong Buy, 29 Buy, 13 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 78% Buy/Strong Buy. 59 analysts cover the stock. The consensus direction is strongly bullish, and Goldman's upgrade aligns with the majority view.

Mean target: $114.56, median: $115.00, high: $151.40, low: $80.00. Current price: $87.89. Implied upside to mean: +30%. Goldman's $120 target is above the mean and median, ranking in the upper quartile of targets. The high target of $151.40 from an unnamed firm suggests some see even more upside.

Recent Analyst Activity

Zero upgrades and zero downgrades in the past 30 days — a quiet period. However, EPS revisions tell a different story: for the current fiscal year, 38 upward revisions vs. 0 downward in the last 30 days, with the average EPS estimate surging from $3.16 to $3.59 (+13.6%). For the next quarter, 4 upward vs. 23 downward revisions, suggesting near-term caution. Overall, estimates are being revised sharply higher for the full year but with some near-term noise.

Firm Track Record — Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs accuracy: 54% on 2921 calls | avg return: 5.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Goldman Sachs has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,921 calls with an average return of 5.6%. This places it in the middle tier among covering firms. Top-tier firms by accuracy include Deutsche Bank (100% on 2 calls), Macquarie (100% on 8), and Evercore ISI (100% on 8, avg return 15.2%). The worst-performing firm in the dataset is Pivotal Research at 78% on 9 calls — still high, but with a small sample. Goldman's track record is solid but not elite.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 15, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is heavy and concentrated: Reed Hastings sold $31.8M in May, Theodore Sarandos sold $1.1M, and David Hyman sold $0.5M. No insider buys. Congressional activity is mildly bullish: two buys from Rep. Byron Donalds (R) and two from Rep. Michael McCaul, totaling $4K-$60K. Institutional buying is massive: Vanguard (+912.5%), FMR (+827.9%), Morgan Stanley (+903%), Bank of America (+831%), and Wells Fargo (+1,086%) all more than doubled positions. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float — a potential squeeze catalyst. The analyst upgrade converges with institutional buying but diverges sharply from insider selling, creating a mixed signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status