MSBI Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Executive Summary
MSBI 13F institutional cluster for Q3 2025 shows mixed conviction: Two Sigma and Nuveen added positions totaling ~$2.1M (new value $6.5M), while Citadel, Morgan Stanley, and Ameriprise trimmed ~$4.2M in holdings. The buyer base is narrow (2 funds) vs 3 sellers, with the largest sell-side action a steep 71.5% trim by Citadel. The aggregate net dollar change is ~–$2.3M, suggesting risk reduction at the margin. Historical reads on MSBI have been strongly directional (100% win rate, +9.4% avg T+20), but the calibration data warn that score 6–7 directional calls in this filing-type segment show net negative alpha at T+20 (–2.0% avg).
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: -$2.3M
▲ Buyers (2)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two Sigma | ADD | +39.1% | $2.4M | $654.0K |
| Nuveen | ADD | +44.8% | $4.1M | $1.3M |
▼ Sellers (3)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel | TRIM | 71.5% | $3.3M | -$2.4M |
| Morgan Stanley | TRIM | 30% | $3.8M | -$1.2M |
| Ameriprise Financial | TRIM | 34.3% | $2.0M | -$681.9K |
Actionable Insight
Despite a net reduction, the presence of Nuveen and Two Sigma as adders at a $611M market cap with 0% analyst bullishness may indicate a value-or-distressed thesis. Monitor Q4 2025 13F to confirm whether the buyer base expands or the sellers continue to exit. The near-100% historical win rate on MSBI reads implies any catalyst re-rating could be sharp, though calibration data suggest upside follow-through in this segment has been negative net of costs.
Key Facts
- 2 buyers (Two Sigma + Nuveen) added a combined $1.9M, bringing their total holdings to $6.5M
- 3 sellers (Citadel, Morgan Stanley, Ameriprise) trimmed $4.2M in aggregate
- Citadel reduced its stake by 71.5%, from $3.3M to $940K — the steepest single trim
- Net dollar change across all 5 reporting funds: –$2.3M
- Active manager mix: 2 asset managers (Nuveen, Ameriprise) vs 2 quants (Two Sigma, Citadel) vs 1 mega-passive (Morgan Stanley)
- Analyst consensus is heavily bearish: 0% bullish (0 Buy/Strong Buy, 3 Hold, 3 Sell/Strong Sell)
Financial Impact
Aggregate institutional activity: $2.1M in new buying from Two Sigma and Nuveen vs $4.2M in trimming from Citadel, Morgan Stanley, and Ameriprise; net reduction of approximately $2.3M across disclosed positions
Risk Factors
- 13F disclosure lag: positions are as of 2025-09-30; current holdings may differ materially
- Small buyer base (only 2 funds) limits signal strength; cluster may not represent a broad thesis shift
- Analyst consensus is 0% bullish with 3 Sell/Strong Sell ratings — fundamental headwinds may persist
- Score calibration data suggest directional calls in this segment have negative T+20 net alpha (-2.0%)
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-MSBI-2025-Q3 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $29.27 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | — |
|
Apr 23, 2026
7w ago
|
Press Release
| $25.00 $27.58 | ▲ +10.32% | ▲ +6.29% | — |
|
Apr 3, 2026
10w ago
|
Press Release
| $23.25 $25.97 | ▲ +11.70% | ▲ +2.72% | — |
|
Mar 23, 2026
11w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $21.84 $23.07 | ▲ +5.63% | ▼ −3.27% | — |
US Market Status
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