MS MORGAN STANLEY
Price Chart
Executive Summary
UBS issued a double upgrade from Neutral to Buy on April 7, 2026, with a $196 price target, representing just 1.4% upside from the current $193.35. The call is contrarian relative to a divided consensus — 18 Buy ratings (8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy) vs 15 Hold, 0 Sell. UBS has a 75% accuracy rate on 4 calls, with a 6.1% average return, placing it in the top tier among covering firms. The mean target is $201.29, implying 4.1% upside, with a high of $230 and a low of $165. No other upgrades or downgrades occurred in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions are strongly positive: 19 up vs 1 down for the current fiscal year. Insider selling is heavy — four executives sold over $5.5M in the past week — diverging from the bullish analyst signal. Short interest is elevated at 56.8% of float, suggesting crowded bearish positioning. The next earnings report is due July 14, 2026, about 3 months away. Bottom line: UBS's double upgrade is a contrarian, high-accuracy call that diverges from insider selling and short interest, making it a high-signal event for active traders.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 33 analysts: 8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. That's 54.5% Buy-rated, 45.5% Hold, 0% Sell. The consensus is tilted bullish but with a large Hold contingent, indicating uncertainty.
Current price: $193.35. Mean target: $201.29 (4.1% upside). Median: $200 (3.4% upside). High: $230 (19.0% upside). Low: $165 (14.7% downside). UBS's $196 target is below the mean and median, ranking 14th out of 21 analysts — a conservative stance despite the upgrade.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $230.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Sector Perform | $207.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Citizens | reiterate | Market Perform | — |
| 2026-04-16 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $200.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | maintain | Outperform | $218.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | $205.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $225.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | UBS | upgrade | Buy | $196.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $190.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $179.00 |
No other upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days — a quiet period. EPS revisions are strongly positive: 19 up vs 1 down for the current fiscal year, and 19 up vs 1 down for +1 year. Estimates are being revised higher across all periods, supporting the bullish thesis.
Firm Track Record — UBS
UBS accuracy: 55% on 5083 calls | avg return: 4.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 16.6% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 100% | 3/3 | 18.4% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 10.8% | top tier |
| JMP Securities | 100% | 5/5 | 18.1% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 86% | 6/7 | 8.9% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 86% | 6/7 | 19.8% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 83% | 5/6 | 12.4% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 75% | 6/8 | 17.9% | top tier |
| HSBC | 75% | 3/4 | 9% | top tier |
| UBS | 75% | 3/4 | 6.1% | top tier |
UBS has a 75% accuracy rate on 4 calls with a 6.1% average return, placing it in the top tier. Best-performing firms: BMO Capital, Jefferies, RBC Capital, JMP Securities (all 100% on 3-5 calls). Worst: B of A Securities (50% on 4 calls, 0.1% avg return). UBS's track record is solid but not elite.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 14, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $12.72 | $11.34 — $13.79 | $81.2B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.77 | $2.48 — $3.02 | $19.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.92 | $2.65 — $3.25 | $19.2B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0y | $11.86 | $11.37 — $12.42 | $77.4B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy: four executives sold over $5.5M in the past week (April 16-20), including the CEO and CFO. No congressional trades. Institutional activity shows Norges Bank entering and exiting large positions, while Two Sigma doubled its stake. Short interest is 56.8% of float — extremely high, indicating bearish sentiment. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and short interest, creating a potential contrarian squeeze setup.
Actionable Insight
UBS's double upgrade is a high-conviction contrarian call against heavy insider selling and extreme short interest. Traders should watch for a short squeeze if earnings (July 14) confirm the bullish EPS revision trend. The $196 target is conservative, so any upside surprise could trigger a rapid move toward the $200+ mean.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 6, 2026
3d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $168.36 $189.21 | ▲ +12.38% | ▲ +2.60% | $212.24 (+26.07%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
5d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $218.17 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $212.24 (−2.72%) |
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $162.76 $179.44 | ▲ +10.25% | ▲ +7.39% | $212.24 (+30.40%) |
|
May 7, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $168.36 $189.21 | ▲ +12.38% | ▲ +2.60% | $212.24 (+26.07%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $162.76 $179.44 | ▲ +10.25% | ▲ +7.39% | $212.24 (+30.40%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $186.67 $193.83 | ▲ +3.84% | ▼ −1.98% | $212.24 (+13.70%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $186.67 $193.83 | ▲ +3.84% | ▼ −1.98% | $212.24 (+13.70%) |
US Market Status
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