MS MORGAN STANLEY
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Wolfe Research upgraded Morgan Stanley from Peer Perform to Outperform on 2025-11-24, part of a cluster of 9 firms adjusting ratings on the same day. Wolfe's track record is modest at 52% accuracy on 451 calls with a 4.4% average return. Consensus on MS is split: 52% Buy (7 Strong Buy, 10 Buy) and 48% Hold (16 Hold) from 33 analysts, with no Sell ratings. The mean price target is $200.19, implying 5% upside from the current $190.59, with targets ranging from $165 to $230. EPS revisions are strongly positive — 19 upward vs 1 downward in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year. However, insider sales total over $5.5 million in April 2026, short interest is elevated at 56.8% of float, and institutional moves show both new large positions and a full exit by Norges Bank. The divergence between bullish analyst signals and bearish sentiment from insiders and short sellers creates a mixed backdrop.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Among 33 analysts covering MS, the consensus breakdown is: 7 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 16 Hold, 0 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell. This represents 52% Buy-side (including Strong Buy), 48% Hold, and no bearish calls. The consensus is tilted bullish but with a significant hold contingency.
The mean price target among 21 analysts is $200.19, with a median of $200.00. The high target is $230 (Barclays), the low is $165 (JP Morgan). At the current price of $190.59, the implied upside to the mean is 5.0%. Wolfe's Outperform rating aligns with the bullish side of consensus, though no PT was provided.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $230.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Sector Perform | $207.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Citizens | reiterate | Market Perform | — |
| 2026-04-16 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $200.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | maintain | Outperform | $218.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | $205.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $225.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | UBS | upgrade | Buy | $196.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $190.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $179.00 |
In the last 30 days, analyst activity shows 1 upgrade (Wolfe) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive: current fiscal year estimates have seen 19 upward revisions and only 1 downward in 30 days. The current year EPS estimate has risen from $11.36 to $11.84 over the past month, indicating growing confidence in earnings.
Firm Track Record — Wolfe Research
Wolfe Research accuracy: 52% on 451 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 16.6% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 100% | 3/3 | 18.4% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 10.8% | top tier |
| JMP Securities | 100% | 5/5 | 18.1% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 86% | 6/7 | 8.9% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 86% | 6/7 | 19.8% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 83% | 5/6 | 12.4% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 75% | 6/8 | 17.9% | top tier |
| HSBC | 75% | 3/4 | 9% | top tier |
| UBS | 75% | 3/4 | 6.1% | top tier |
Wolfe Research has a 52% accuracy rate on 451 rated calls, with an average return of 4.4%. This is below the top-tier firms covering MS, such as BMO Capital, Jefferies, and RBC Capital (all 100% on 3-5 calls) and Goldman Sachs (86% on 7 calls). Wolfe's performance is in line with the broader pool of covering analysts but not standout.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 14, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $11.84 | $11.42 — $12.42 | $77.3B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.77 | $2.58 — $3.02 | $19.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $12.70 | $11.34 — $13.79 | $81.1B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.92 | $2.65 — $3.25 | $19.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insiders have sold aggressively: four transactions in April 2026 totaling over $5.5 million, including a $2.8M sale by director Daniel Simkowitz. No congressional trades were recorded. Institutional activity is mixed — Norges Bank opened a new $2.7B position while also filing a full exit from a similar-sized position; Two Sigma Investments doubled its stake (up 150%). Short interest is 56.8% of float, very high, signaling heavy bearish positioning. This diverges sharply from the bullish analyst upgrade.
Actionable Insight
The analyst cluster upgrade adds to positive momentum, but heavy insider selling and extreme short interest suggest caution. Traders should watch for a potential short squeeze if earnings (due July 14, 2026) exceed expectations, but the divergence warrants waiting for price confirmation before taking a directional stance.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 6, 2026
3d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $168.36 $189.21 | ▲ +12.38% | ▲ +2.60% | $212.24 (+26.07%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
5d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $218.17 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $212.24 (−2.72%) |
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $162.76 $179.44 | ▲ +10.25% | ▲ +7.39% | $212.24 (+30.40%) |
|
May 7, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $168.36 $189.21 | ▲ +12.38% | ▲ +2.60% | $212.24 (+26.07%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $162.76 $179.44 | ▲ +10.25% | ▲ +7.39% | $212.24 (+30.40%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $186.67 $193.83 | ▲ +3.84% | ▼ −1.98% | $212.24 (+13.70%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $186.67 $193.83 | ▲ +3.84% | ▼ −1.98% | $212.24 (+13.70%) |
US Market Status
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