MRK Merck & Co., Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Wolfe Research upgraded Merck (MRK) from Peer Perform to Outperform, setting a $135 price target (~24% upside from $109.18). The firm has a 52% accuracy rate on 451 calls with an average return of 4.4%. Consensus is bullish: 69% Buy/Strong Buy, 31% Hold, 0% Sell across 35 analysts, with a mean target of $129.74. However, EPS revisions are sharply negative (12 down vs 2 up for the next fiscal year in the last 30 days). Insider selling accelerated in February with four executives selling over $6M in shares. Short interest is elevated at 61% of float, signaling heavy bearish positioning. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank opened large new positions while Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigma exited or reduced. The upgrade is not contrarian and comes from a firm with average reliability, but the combination of strong consensus and high short interest creates a potential squeeze catalyst. Bottom line: the bullish analyst call is overshadowed by deteriorating fundamentals and insider selling, warranting a cautious approach.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus stands at 68.6% Buy (24 of 35 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy), 31.4% Hold, and 0% Sell. The consensus is strongly bullish but with a significant hold minority.
The mean price target is $129.74, median $135, high $150, low $100. At $109.18, implied upside to mean is 18.8%. Wolfe's $135 PT matches the median and is above the mean, in line with the bullish consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $145.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $145.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $135.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $142.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $125.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $150.00 |
| 2026-02-25 | RBC Capital | initiate | Outperform | $142.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | Barclays | initiate | Overweight | $140.00 |
| 2026-02-09 | Freedom Broker | maintain | Hold | $110.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | Guggenheim | maintain | Buy | $140.00 |
In the 30 days prior to the upgrade, no upgrades or downgrades were recorded. However, EPS revisions have been negative: for the next fiscal year, 12 downward revisions vs 2 upward in the last 30 days. Estimates are trending lower across all periods, a bearish fundamental signal.
Firm Track Record — Wolfe Research
Wolfe Research accuracy: 52% on 451 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 12 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | 100% | 2/2 | 9.7% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 50% | 2/4 | 0.7% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 43% | 3/7 | 2.8% | below average |
| Wells Fargo | 40% | 2/5 | 3.8% | below average |
| B of A Securities | 33% | 1/3 | -0.2% | below average |
| Guggenheim | 25% | 1/4 | -7.8% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 20% | 1/5 | -10.3% | below average |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 9% | 1/11 | -5.5% | below average |
| Barclays | 0% | 0/2 | -7.6% | below average |
| Berenberg | 0% | 0/2 | 11.6% | below average |
Wolfe Research has a 52% accuracy rate on 451 analyst calls with an average return of 4.4%. This is above average among peers covering MRK. The best performing firm is Deutsche Bank (100% on 2 calls, avg return 9.7%), while the worst is Cantor Fitzgerald (9% on 11 calls, avg -5.5%). Wolfe's historical performance suggests moderate reliability.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $9.71 | $8.92 — $10.38 | $70.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.09 | $1.91 — $2.18 | $16.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.40 | $2.23 — $2.56 | $17.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $5.11 | $5.00 — $5.20 | $66.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is notable: four executives sold shares in February 2026 totaling over $6M. Congressional activity: one buy by Rep. Gottheimer (Democrat) in Feb 2026. Institutional moves are mixed: NORGES BANK opened large new positions, but Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigma exited or nearly exited. Short interest is very high at 61% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. This diverges from the analyst upgrade, suggesting caution.
Actionable Insight
The Wolfe upgrade aligns with consensus but faces headwinds from deteriorating EPS estimates and heavy insider selling. Traders should treat this as a modest bullish signal with elevated risk; consider waiting for confirmation from earnings on August 4 or a reduction in short interest.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 31, 2026
14d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $110.89 $110.64 | ▼ −0.22% | ▼ −0.60% | $119.05 (+7.36%) |
|
May 22, 2026
23d ago
|
8-K
| $119.66 $115.68 | ▼ −3.33% | ▼ −4.54% | $119.05 (−0.51%) |
|
May 1, 2026
6w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $110.89 $110.64 | ▼ −0.22% | ▼ −0.60% | $119.05 (+7.36%) |
|
Apr 8, 2026
9w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $122.62 $115.43 | ▼ −5.86% | ▼ −9.05% | $119.05 (−2.91%) |
US Market Status
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