MDT Medtronic plc
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Needham upgraded Medtronic (MDT) from Hold to Buy with a $121 price target, representing 49% upside from the current $80.97. This is part of a 10-firm analyst cluster that has acted on MDT recently, with the majority maintaining bullish stances. Needham has a strong track record on MDT, with 75% accuracy on 12 calls and an average return of 4.1%, placing it among the top-tier firms for this ticker. Consensus is heavily bullish: 23 Buy ratings (8 Strong Buy, 15 Buy) vs 13 Hold and 1 Sell, with a mean target of $108 (33% upside). The price target range is $90-$121, and Needham's $121 is the high end, signaling maximum conviction. Momentum is neutral with zero upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days, but EPS revisions have been negative — 16 downward revisions for the current fiscal year and 17 for the current quarter. Insider and congressional activity is minimal, with one small sell from Rep. Kevin Hern. The next earnings date is May 20, 2026, just 11 days away, adding a timing catalyst. Bottom line: Needham's top-tier accuracy and cluster convergence amplify this bullish call, but negative EPS revisions warrant caution ahead of earnings.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 37 analysts. The overwhelming majority (62%) are Buy-rated, with only 3% Sell-rated. This is a strong bullish consensus that aligns with Needham's upgrade.
Current price: $80.97. Mean target: $108 (33% upside). Median target: $110 (36% upside). High target: $121 (49% upside, Needham's new PT). Low target: $90 (11% upside). Needham's $121 is at the high end of the range, above the mean and median, indicating above-consensus conviction.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $90.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $95.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Mizuho | maintain | Outperform | $120.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $106.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $110.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $108.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | Argus Research | maintain | Buy | $115.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $120.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Neutral | $91.00 |
| 2026-03-26 | Needham | reiterate | Buy | $120.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. However, EPS revisions are negative: 16 downward revisions for the current fiscal year and 17 for the current quarter over the last 30 days. The current quarter EPS estimate has fallen from $1.57 to $1.55. This divergence between analyst ratings (bullish) and earnings revisions (bearish) is a key risk factor.
Firm Track Record — Needham
Needham accuracy: 50% on 4129 calls | avg return: 4.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | 100% | 2/2 | 11.1% | top tier |
| Bernstein | 100% | 2/2 | 6.4% | top tier |
| Needham | 75% | 9/12 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Baird | 71% | 5/7 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 67% | 4/6 | 3.5% | top tier |
| UBS | 67% | 4/6 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 60% | 3/5 | 3.3% | above average |
| Truist Securities | 60% | 6/10 | 4.8% | above average |
| RBC Capital | 56% | 5/9 | 3% | above average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | 4.4% | below average |
Needham has a 75% accuracy rate on 12 MDT calls with an average return of 4.1%, placing it among the top-tier firms for this ticker. Top-tier firms include Mizuho (100% on 2 calls, avg return 11.1%), Bernstein (100% on 2 calls, avg return 6.4%), and Baird (71% on 7 calls, avg return 4.8%). Lower-tier firms include Stifel (33% on 3 calls, avg return 1.8%) and Barclays (33% on 3 calls, avg return 1.3%). Needham's upgrade carries above-average credibility.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 20, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $5.53 | $5.50 — $5.64 | $36.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.55 | $1.52 — $1.66 | $9.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.38 | $1.31 — $1.49 | $9.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $6.06 | $6.00 — $6.13 | $38.2B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: none reported. Congressional activity: one small sell from Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) on March 20, 2026, in the $15k-$50k range — negligible. Institutional changes: none reported. Short interest: not available. The analyst bullish signal is not corroborated by insider buying or institutional accumulation, but also not contradicted by heavy selling. The negative EPS revision trend is a bearish divergence that traders should monitor.
Actionable Insight
Needham's top-tier accuracy and the 10-firm analyst cluster support a bullish stance on MDT, but the negative EPS revision trend and upcoming earnings on May 20 create a high-risk, high-reward setup. Traders should wait for earnings confirmation before adding to positions, but the $121 target offers a compelling 49% upside if the company delivers.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 19, 2026
2d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $77.32 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $77.47 (+0.20%) |
|
May 1, 2026
19d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $101.62 $89.87 | ▼ −11.56% | ▼ −9.10% | $77.47 (−23.76%) |
|
Apr 6, 2026
6w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $86.25 $78.27 | ▼ −9.25% | ▼ −18.24% | $77.47 (−10.18%) |
US Market Status
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