MCO MOODYS CORP /DE/

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Daiwa Capital upgraded MCO to Outperform from Neutral with a $590 price target, up from $500, representing 30.2% upside from the current $453.25. The upgrade is part of a 12-firm cluster action on MCO, though Daiwa is the only firm to change its rating. Consensus is heavily bullish: 21 of 30 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell. The mean price target of $536 implies 18.3% upside, with a high of $610 and low of $489. Daiwa's 52% accuracy on 21 calls is below the top-tier firms covering MCO (Raymond James, RBC Capital, Evercore ISI Group at 100% on small samples). Momentum is neutral with 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades in the last 30 days, but EPS revisions for the current quarter show 4 up vs 15 down over 30 days, indicating downward pressure. Insider selling is persistent: three executives sold shares in March, April, and May 2026, including CFO Fauber Robert ($139,917 on May 1) and EVP Steele Richard G ($73,690 on May 1). Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank exited a large position while Two Sigma doubled its stake. Short interest is elevated at 70% of TRF volume. The upgrade from a below-average accuracy firm with concurrent insider selling and negative EPS revisions creates a mixed signal. Bottom line: Daiwa's call is contrarian but lacks conviction from high-accuracy peers; traders should wait for confirmation from top-tier firms or a catalyst before acting.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is 70% Buy/Strong Buy (21 of 30 analysts), 30% Hold (9), 0% Sell. The direction is strongly bullish, with no sell-side ratings. Daiwa's upgrade aligns with the bullish consensus but is not a contrarian call.

Current price: $453.25. Mean target: $536 (18.3% upside). Median: $532.50. High: $610 (Evercore ISI). Low: $489 (Morgan Stanley). Daiwa's $590 PT is above the mean and median, ranking near the top of the range, indicating above-consensus conviction.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: current quarter (0q) has 4 revisions up vs 15 down over 30 days, with EPS estimates declining from $4.214 to $4.175. Next quarter (+1q) shows 14 up vs 5 down, a positive divergence. Full-year 0y has 7 up vs 12 down. Overall, estimates are being revised lower for the current quarter but higher for the next quarter, suggesting near-term caution but medium-term optimism.

Firm Track Record — Daiwa Capital

Daiwa Capital accuracy: 52% on 21 calls | avg return: 6.7%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Daiwa Capital has 52% accuracy on 21 calls with an average return of 6.7%. This is below the top-tier firms covering MCO: Raymond James (100% on 2 calls, avg return 6.9%), RBC Capital (100% on 4 calls, 6.3%), Evercore ISI Group (100% on 2 calls, 6.2%), and Stifel (83% on 6 calls, 7.7%). The best-performing firm is Baird (75% on 4 calls, avg return 9.8%). The worst is Morgan Stanley (33% on 6 calls, avg return -2.1%). Daiwa's track record is average relative to the coverage universe.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: Three executives sold shares in March, April, and May 2026, totaling ~$517,000. CFO Fauber Robert sold $139,917 on May 1 and $131,331 on April 1. EVP Steele Richard G sold $73,690 on May 1 and $14,884 on April 1. EVP Phillips Jason D sold $157,437 on March 4. These are routine sales (monthly intervals, similar sizes), likely 10b5-1 plan-driven, and thus non-informative per academic literature. Institutional: Norges Bank exited a $1.1B position (new then exit), while Two Sigma doubled its stake (+1,222%) to $154M. UBS trimmed 29.6% to $323M. Short interest: 70% of TRF volume is short, indicating heavy bearish positioning. This diverges from the bullish analyst consensus, creating a potential squeeze setup if positive catalysts emerge.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status