MCO MOODYS CORP /DE/

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Daiwa Capital upgraded Moody's Corporation (MCO) from Neutral to Outperform on January 13, 2026, raising its price target from $500 to $590 — a 28% upside from the current $461.85. The upgrade aligns with a broadly bullish consensus: 22 of 30 analysts (73%) rate Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean target of $535. Daiwa's new PT sits above the consensus mean and median ($532.50), signaling above-consensus conviction. However, Daiwa's track record is middling — 52% accurate (11 of 21 calls) with an average return of 6.7%. Recent momentum shows no upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days, but EPS revisions are mixed: next quarter estimates saw 13 upward revisions vs 4 downward in 30 days, while current quarter estimates were revised down 13 times vs 4 up. Insider activity is bearish — five sizable sells totaling over $2.3 million in March-April, no buys. Institutional positioning is divergent: Norges Bank opened a $1.1 billion stake while also exiting, and Two Sigma more than doubled its position. Short interest is elevated at a 70% short ratio on off-exchange volume. The upgrade is a bullish catalyst, but insider selling and mixed fundamentals call for caution ahead of earnings on July 21.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Full consensus: 8 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 73.3% Buy-rated (22 of 30 analysts). The consensus is heavily bullish, with no sell-side dissent. Daiwa's Outperform aligns with the majority view, but its $590 PT is above the mean consensus of $535.

Current price: $461.85. Mean target: $535 (implied upside +15.8%). Median target: $532.50. High target: $610 (Evercore ISI). Low target: $460. Daiwa's $590 target is in the 90th percentile of targets and is 10.3% above the consensus mean, reflecting strong conviction.

Recent Analyst Activity

No upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days — only maintenance actions from firms like Mizuho, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley. EPS revision trends are mixed: for the current quarter (0q), 13 downward revisions vs 4 upward in 30 days; for next quarter (+1q), 13 upward vs 4 downward. Estimates for the current fiscal year have ticked down slightly over 30 days (from $18.71 to $18.56). Overall, estimates are being revised lower for near-term quarters but higher for the next quarter, indicating a potential near-term trough.

Firm Track Record — Daiwa Capital

Daiwa Capital accuracy: 52% on 21 calls | avg return: 6.7%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Daiwa Capital has a 52% accuracy rate (11 correct out of 21 scored calls) with an average return of 6.7%. This is middle-of-the-pack compared to top-tier firms like Raymond James (100% on 2 calls), RBC Capital (100% on 4), and Stifel (83% on 6). The weakest firms on MCO are Morgan Stanley (33% on 6) and BMO Capital (38% on 8). Daiwa's track record offers limited signal strength.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: five sells totaling >$2.3M (including $2.0M by West Michael L on Mar 4), no buys — bearish signal. Congressional activity: none reported. Institutional: Norges Bank opened a $1.1B new position but also fully exited a prior stake; Two Sigma doubled its position (+1222% increase) but also trimmed other holdings; UBS trimmed by 29.6% — mixed. Short interest: 70% short ratio on off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC) suggests elevated bearish positioning. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and mixed institutional flows.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status