MA Mastercard Inc

BULLISH Impact: 4/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 14d 15h ago SEC analyst-MA-freedomb-20260213
13 firms acted on MA: Loop Capital, Freedom Broker, Cantor Fitzgerald, Compass Point, HSBC, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Seaport Global, Truist Securities, Evercore ISI Group, Seaport Global, Compass Point, B of A Securities
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
MA ▼ -3.56% at T+60d
LONG call ✗ call lost -3.56% · α vs SPY -11.86% · entry $518.25 → $499.82
Last close $489.98 (close Jun 12) · -5.45% from $518.25 entry
Entry anchored
Feb 12, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+0.69%
call +0.69% · α +0.50%
$521.81
settled 4mo ago
T+5d
-4.39%
call -4.39% · α -4.51%
$495.50
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
-2.27%
call -2.27% · α -0.44%
$506.51
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
-3.56%
call -3.56% · α -11.86%
$499.82
settled 5w ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Freedom Broker upgraded Mastercard Inc (MA) from Hold to Buy on February 13, 2026, raising its price target to $675 from $655, implying 36.6% upside from the current $493.98. The upgrade is part of a 13-firm cluster action on MA, with no other upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 45 of 50 analysts rate MA Buy or Strong Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell. The mean price target is $646.97, median $662.50, high $735, low $550. Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls with an 11.8% average return, placing it in the above-average tier. EPS revisions for the current quarter show 23 downward revisions in the last 30 days, while next year's estimates have 23 upward revisions, creating a mixed near-term outlook. Insider trades are absent, but congressional buying from Reps. McCaul and Khanna provides a modest bullish signal. The bottom line: Freedom Broker's upgrade aligns with a strong consensus but faces headwinds from near-term EPS downgrades; the call is credible but not contrarian.

Impact Score

Base Score
3/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
45 (90%)
Hold
5
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
36
Mean PT
$646.97
Median PT
$662.50
High PT
$735.00
Low PT
$550.00
Current Price
$493.98
Implied Upside
+31%

Consensus is heavily bullish: 13 Strong Buy, 32 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 50 analysts. This represents 90% Buy/Strong Buy, 10% Hold, 0% Sell. The consensus direction is strongly positive, with no bearish voices.

Current price is $493.98. Mean target is $646.97 (31.0% upside), median $662.50 (34.1% upside), high $735 (48.8% upside), low $550 (11.3% upside). Freedom Broker's $675 target is above the mean and median, ranking in the top quartile of targets. Implied upside to Freedom Broker's target is 36.6%.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-12 Truist Securities maintain Buy $561.00
2026-05-01 Macquarie maintain Outperform $665.00
2026-05-01 UBS maintain Buy $640.00
2026-05-01 RBC Capital maintain Outperform $629.00
2026-05-01 Susquehanna maintain Positive $665.00
2026-04-24 Truist Securities maintain Buy $590.00
2026-04-22 BMO Capital initiate Outperform $605.00
2026-04-14 Citigroup maintain Buy $675.00
2026-04-01 Evercore ISI Group maintain In-Line $550.00
2026-03-31 Loop Capital initiate Buy $631.00

Zero upgrades and zero downgrades in the past 30 days, making this upgrade a standalone positive signal. EPS revisions are mixed: current quarter (0q) has 23 downward revisions in 30 days, while next fiscal year (+1y) has 23 upward revisions. Near-term estimates are being cut, but long-term estimates are rising.

Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker

Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
BMO Capital 100% 3/3 10.6% top tier
Piper Sandler 83% 5/6 4.6% top tier
Jefferies 75% 3/4 1.6% top tier
Truist Securities 75% 3/4 0.2% top tier
JP Morgan 71% 5/7 5.3% top tier
Citigroup 67% 4/6 2.4% top tier
Morgan Stanley 67% 4/6 4% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 67% 2/3 4.1% top tier
Mizuho 67% 2/3 2.4% top tier
Keybanc 60% 3/5 3.4% above average

Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate (45 correct out of 68 scored calls) with an 11.8% average return, placing it in the above-average tier. Among firms covering MA, top-tier firms include BMO Capital (100% on 3 calls), Piper Sandler (83% on 6), Jefferies (75% on 4), Truist Securities (75% on 4), and JP Morgan (71% on 7). Freedom Broker's accuracy is above the median of firms listed.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $4.76 $4.61 — $4.85 $9.1B ↑0 ↓0
+1y $22.76 $21.95 — $23.29 $41.7B ↑1 ↓0
0y $19.65 $19.44 — $19.93 $37.1B ↑1 ↓0
+1q $5.11 $5.00 — $5.21 $9.7B ↑0 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Congressional
Michael McCaul (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Michael McCaul (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Michael McCaul (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — near_exit (-91%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — exit (-100%)

No insider trades reported. Congressional activity shows four buys by Rep. Michael McCaul (R) between April 1-28, 2026, and one buy by Rep. Ro Khanna (D) on April 13, 2026, all in modest amounts ($1,001-$50,000). Institutional changes show Norges Bank added a massive new position ($6.7B) but also exited another, while Renaissance Technologies trimmed 66% and near-exited 91%. Short interest data is unavailable. The congressional buying provides a mild bullish contra-signal to the near-term EPS downgrades.

Actionable Insight

Freedom Broker's upgrade adds to an already bullish consensus, but the near-term EPS downgrades warrant caution. Traders should view this as a confirmation of long-term bullishness but wait for a clearer near-term catalyst before adding positions.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

6 reports for MA
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate 2 of 3 directional calls best @ T+5▲ +3.36%Apr 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for MA — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 2, 2026
12d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$484.00 awaiting T+20awaiting T+20$489.98 (+1.24%)
May 31, 2026
14d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$518.25 $506.51▼ −2.27%▼ −0.44%$489.98 (−5.45%)
May 22, 2026
23d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$510.11 $497.16▼ −2.54%▼ −6.77%$489.98 (−3.95%)
Apr 30, 2026
6w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$501.79 $493.12▼ −1.73%▼ −6.95%$489.98 (−2.35%)
Apr 27, 2026
6w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$507.09 $493.01▼ −2.78%▼ −8.24%$489.98 (−3.37%)
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$510.11 $499.70▼ −2.04%▼ −5.21%$489.98 (−3.95%)
Showing 6 of 6

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