LYFT Lyft, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Arete Research upgraded Lyft (LYFT) from Sell to Neutral on December 3, 2025, doubling its price target from $10 to $20. The move comes as part of a 16-firm cluster of analyst actions on the stock, but Arete carries a weak 27% accuracy rate on 11 calls with an average return of -11.6%. Consensus remains heavily skewed to Hold: 62% Hold, 35% Buy, 4% Sell, with a mean price target of $19.26. Arete's $20 target is above the mean and median ($18). Despite the upgrade, EPS estimates have been revised down across all periods (5 downgrades vs 0 upgrades for next quarter) and insider selling totaled over $770K in recent months. Short interest is extremely high at 59.7% of volume. Institutional flows are mixed: Morgan Stanley added 57%, while Bank of America trimmed 60%. The upgrade is a contrarian positive, but the poor track record and bearish cross-signals suggest limited follow-through.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 55 analysts covering LYFT, 19 rate it Buy/Strong Buy (35%), 34 Hold (62%), and 2 Sell/Strong Sell (4%). The consensus is overwhelmingly cautious, with over 60% on Hold, reflecting limited conviction in a major upside catalyst.
The mean price target is $19.26, median $18, high $30, low $13. At $14.15, Lyft trades at a 36% discount to the mean. Arete's new $20 target sits above both the mean and median, indicating a more optimistic view than the typical analyst.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $17.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $15.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $15.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $16.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Canaccord Genuity | maintain | Hold | $16.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Jefferies | maintain | Hold | $15.50 |
| 2026-02-11 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $22.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Piper Sandler | reiterate | Overweight | $20.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Wedbush | maintain | Underperform | $13.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $19.00 |
No upgrades or downgrades occurred in the past 30 days, but EPS estimate revisions are negative: 0 upgrades vs 4 downgrades for the current quarter, and 0 upgrades vs 5 downgrades for next quarter. Full-year estimates also show 2 upgrades vs 4 downgrades. Estimates are trending lower, contradicting the upgrade.
Firm Track Record — Arete Research
Arete Research accuracy: 27% on 11 calls | avg return: -11.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 75% | 3/4 | 38% | top tier |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 67% | 4/6 | 5.9% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 63% | 5/8 | 7.8% | top tier |
| Needham | 55% | 6/11 | 11.6% | above average |
| Wells Fargo | 50% | 5/10 | 13.8% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 50% | 2/4 | 1.1% | below average |
| Deutsche Bank | 50% | 1/2 | 33.5% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | 15.3% | below average |
| Loop Capital | 50% | 2/4 | 4.8% | below average |
| Oppenheimer | 50% | 2/4 | 12.1% | below average |
Arete Research has a 27% accuracy rate (3 correct on 11 scored calls) with an average return of -11.6%, one of the poorest among 15 firms tracked. Top performers include JP Morgan (75% on 4 calls, avg return +38%) and Cantor Fitzgerald (67% on 6 calls). Arete's call should be heavily discounted given this track record.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 6, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $0.62 | $0.30 — $0.99 | $7.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.07 | $0.02 — $0.12 | $1.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.15 | $0.09 — $0.21 | $1.8B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $0.94 | $0.45 — $1.53 | $8.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show four sells totaling over $770K, including $355K by director Llewellyn on April 17. Institutional activity is mixed: Morgan Stanley added 57% ($170M) and Norges Bank started a new $110M position, but Bank of America trimmed 60% ($87.7M). Short interest is extremely high at 59.7% of volume. The upgrade diverges from insider selling and downward estimate revisions.
Actionable Insight
The Arete upgrade is a modest positive signal from a low-credibility firm, but the heavy insider selling, downward EPS revisions, and extreme short interest argue against chasing it. Wait for a stronger catalyst or a high-accuracy firm to confirm before acting.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 9, 2026
1d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $14.04 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $14.02 (−0.11%) |
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $22.33 $20.32 | ▼ −9.00% | ▼ −9.56% | $14.02 (−37.21%) |
|
May 29, 2026
11d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $14.83 $13.65 | ▼ −7.94% | ▼ −5.19% | $14.02 (−5.45%) |
|
May 29, 2026
11d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $14.83 $13.65 | ▼ −7.94% | ▼ −5.19% | $14.02 (−5.45%) |
|
May 29, 2026
11d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $14.83 $13.65 | ▼ −7.94% | ▼ −5.19% | $14.02 (−5.45%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $22.33 $20.32 | ▼ −9.00% | ▼ −9.56% | $14.02 (−37.21%) |
|
Apr 10, 2026
8w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $13.59 $14.43 | ▲ +6.18% | ▲ +2.89% | $14.02 (+3.18%) |
US Market Status
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