JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON

BEARISH Impact: 5/10 ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-JNJ-freedomb-20251022
Freedom Broker double downgrade: Buy → Hold
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
JNJ ▲ +13.24% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -13.24% · α vs SPY -11.82% · entry $192.41 → $217.89
Last close $232.16 (close Jun 8) · -20.66% from $192.41 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
Oct 22, 10:55 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-0.03%
call +0.03% · α +0.59%
$192.35
settled 8mo ago
T+5d
-3.13%
call +3.13% · α +6.03%
$186.39
settled 7mo ago
T+20d
+5.20%
call -5.20% · α -5.98%
$202.42
settled 7mo ago
T+60d
+13.24%
call -13.24% · α -11.82%
$217.89
settled 5mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Freedom Broker issued a double downgrade on [TICKER] from Buy to Hold on October 22, 2025, a contrarian call against a consensus that is 62.5% Buy. The firm raised its price target to $190 from $180, but that still represents a 15.4% decline from the current price of $224.62. Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 rated calls with an average return of 11.8%, placing it in the moderate tier vs. peers like Raymond James and Barclays (100% on limited coverage). The consensus mean price target is $252.42, implying 12.4% upside, making this downgrade a clear outlier. EPS revision momentum is mixed: next year estimates saw 20 upward revisions in the past 30 days, yet the current quarter had 10 downward revisions. High short interest (58.9% of float) and insider selling (one SELL in February) align with the bearish view, although institutional activity shows some large buyers (FMR added 39.7%, Norges Bank new position). The bottom line: this double downgrade from a moderately accurate firm is a bearish signal that diverges sharply from consensus, warranting caution.

Impact Score

Base Score
3/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
5/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
20 (63%)
Hold
12
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
24
Mean PT
$252.42
Median PT
$259.00
High PT
$285.00
Low PT
$155.00
Current Price
$224.62
Implied Upside
+12.4%

Consensus distribution: 6 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 12 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — total 32 ratings from 24 analysts. That translates to 62.5% Buy, 37.5% Hold, 0% Sell. The consensus is clearly bullish, making Freedom Broker's downgrade an outlier.

Consensus price targets: mean $252.42, median $259, high $285, low $155. Current price $224.62 implies an average upside of 12.4% to the mean. Freedom Broker's $190 target is 24.7% below the mean and actually below the lowest consensus target of $155, signaling a deeply bearish view.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-15 Barclays maintain Equal-Weight $255.00
2026-04-15 Stifel maintain Hold $250.00
2026-04-15 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $263.00
2026-04-10 Morgan Stanley maintain Overweight $267.00
2026-03-30 RBC Capital reiterate Outperform $255.00
2026-03-19 Barclays maintain Equal-Weight $234.00
2026-03-17 HSBC maintain Buy $280.00
2026-03-11 Citigroup maintain Buy $274.00
2026-03-05 JP Morgan maintain Neutral $250.00
2026-02-03 RBC Capital maintain Outperform $255.00

Analyst activity in the past 30 days shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: next fiscal year (+1y) had 20 upward and 1 downward revision in 30 days, while the current quarter (0q) had 6 up and 10 down. Next quarter (+1q) had 10 up and 5 down. The mixed revision trend suggests near-term uncertainty but longer-term optimism.

Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker

Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Raymond James 100% 4/4 8.2% top tier
Barclays 100% 4/4 12.4% top tier
Goldman Sachs 100% 4/4 8.8% top tier
UBS 100% 2/2 17.3% top tier
Stifel 100% 2/2 11.2% top tier
Morgan Stanley 91% 10/11 9.6% top tier
B of A Securities 89% 8/9 9.3% top tier
Citigroup 83% 5/6 10.3% top tier
RBC Capital 72% 13/18 4.9% top tier
Wells Fargo 67% 2/3 2.7% top tier

Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 scored calls with an average return of 11.8%. This is below top-tier firms covering [TICKER] such as Raymond James, Barclays, and Goldman Sachs (all 100% on 4 calls each), and Morgan Stanley (91% on 11 calls). It is above firms like Cantor Fitzgerald (44% on 16 calls). Overall, Freedom Broker is a moderate-accuracy firm.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 14, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
+1y $12.71 $12.07 — $13.47 $107.2B ↑4 ↓0
0q $2.84 $2.65 — $3.00 $25.0B ↑5 ↓0
+1q $3.02 $2.96 — $3.11 $25.3B ↑10 ↓0
0y $11.58 $11.47 — $11.82 $100.9B ↑3 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 1 sells
Congressional
Thomas Kean Jr (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
John Boozman (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Rich McCormick (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — near_exit (-90.5%)
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — exit (-100%)
Institutional
FMR LLC — add (39.7%)
Short Interest
Short: 1,381,938 | Exempt: 1,703 | TRF Vol: 2,345,208 | Short Ratio: 58.9% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trades: one SELL ($324k) on Feb 20, 2026. Congressional trades: four small sells (Rep. Kean Jr., Boozman, McCormick) and one small buy (Rep. Doggett). Institutional activity: Two Sigma near-exit (-90.5%), Renaissance exit (100% sell), but FMR added 39.7% and Norges Bank new position. Short interest stands at 58.9% of float, very elevated. The insider selling, high short interest, and institutional exits converge with the bearish downgrade, though large new buys provide some divergence.

Actionable Insight

The double downgrade from a moderate-accuracy firm, combined with high short interest and insider selling, suggests meaningful downside risk. Traders should consider reducing long exposure or initiating hedges ahead of any earnings catalyst (next report July 14, 2026).

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

10 reports for JNJ
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 3 of 4 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +6.93%May 31, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for JNJ — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 6, 2026
3d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 3/10
$192.41 $186.39▲ +3.13%▲ +6.03%$232.16 (−20.66%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$227.67 $234.31▲ +2.92%▲ +4.25%$232.16 (+1.97%)
May 20, 2026
21d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$229.12 $231.29▲ +0.95%▼ −0.29%$232.16 (+1.33%)
May 13, 2026
27d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$230.79 $231.58▲ +0.34%▲ +1.06%$232.16 (+0.59%)
May 7, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$192.41 $186.39▲ +3.13%▲ +6.03%$232.16 (−20.66%)
May 5, 2026
5w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$225.50 $221.43▼ −1.80%▼ −3.79%$232.16 (+2.96%)
Apr 14, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$240.01 $225.97▼ −5.85%▼ −7.24%$232.16 (−3.27%)
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$242.34 $238.33▼ −1.65%▼ −5.96%$232.16 (−4.20%)
Mar 11, 2026
12w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$242.95 $237.20▼ −2.37%▼ −0.18%$232.16 (−4.44%)
Feb 28, 2026
14w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 7/10
$248.40 $242.34▼ −2.44%▼ −1.23%$232.16 (−6.54%)
Showing 10 of 10

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