JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON

BEARISH Impact: 3/10 ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
Processed 3d 11h ago SEC analyst-JNJ-freedomb-20251022
Freedom Broker double downgrade: Buy → Hold
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
JNJ ▲ +13.24% at T+60d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -13.24% · α vs SPY -11.82% · entry $192.41 → $217.89
Last close $232.16 (close Jun 8) · -20.66% from $192.41 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
Oct 22, 10:55 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-0.03%
call +0.03% · α +0.59%
$192.35
settled 8mo ago
T+5d
-3.13%
call +3.13% · α +6.03%
$186.39
settled 7mo ago
T+20d
+5.20%
call -5.20% · α -5.98%
$202.42
settled 7mo ago
T+60d
+13.24%
call -13.24% · α -11.82%
$217.89
settled 5mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Freedom Broker double-downgraded JNJ from Buy to Hold on October 22, 2025, while raising its price target from $180 to $190. The new target implies an 18.4% downside from the current price of $232.77, making it the second-lowest target on the Street (only the $155 low is lower). The consensus remains heavily bullish — 21 of 31 analysts rate JNJ Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean target of $252.87 (8.6% upside). Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls and an average return of 11.8%, placing it in the middle of the pack. The downgrade is a sharp contrarian call against the bullish consensus and comes as EPS revisions have been essentially flat over the past 30 days. Institutional activity shows mixed signals: FMR added 39.7% and Norges Bank initiated a new $6.9B position, while Two Sigma cut 90.5% and Renaissance Technologies exited entirely. Short interest is elevated at 55.5% of off-exchange volume, suggesting bearish positioning. The next earnings report is due July 14, 2026, roughly nine months out, so no near-term catalyst is imminent. Bottom line: a high-conviction contrarian downgrade from a mid-tier firm, but the consensus and institutional inflows provide a strong counterweight.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
3/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
21 (68%)
Hold
10
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
23
Mean PT
$252.87
Median PT
$260.00
High PT
$285.00
Low PT
$155.00
Current Price
$232.77
Implied Upside
+8.6%

Consensus is heavily bullish: 7 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell (31 analysts total). The consensus direction is strongly positive, with 67.7% of analysts at Buy or Strong Buy. Freedom Broker's Hold downgrade is a clear contrarian outlier.

Mean target is $252.87, median $260, high $285, low $155. Current price $232.77 implies 8.6% upside to the mean. Freedom Broker's $190 target is well below the mean and median, ranking as the second-lowest on the Street after the $155 low.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-13 Leerink Partners upgrade Outperform $265.00
2026-04-15 Barclays maintain Equal-Weight $255.00
2026-04-15 Stifel maintain Hold $250.00
2026-04-15 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $263.00
2026-04-10 Morgan Stanley maintain Overweight $267.00
2026-03-30 RBC Capital reiterate Outperform $255.00
2026-03-19 Barclays maintain Equal-Weight $234.00
2026-03-17 HSBC maintain Buy $280.00
2026-03-11 Citigroup maintain Buy $274.00
2026-03-05 JP Morgan maintain Neutral $250.00

Over the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (Leerink Partners from Market Perform to Outperform on May 13, 2026) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are essentially flat: the +1q estimate moved from $3.017 to $3.023 over 30 days, and the 0y estimate from $11.575 to $11.574. No strong revision trend.

Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker

Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Raymond James 100% 4/4 8.2% top tier
Barclays 100% 4/4 12.4% top tier
Goldman Sachs 100% 4/4 8.8% top tier
UBS 100% 2/2 17.3% top tier
Stifel 100% 2/2 11.2% top tier
Morgan Stanley 91% 10/11 9.6% top tier
B of A Securities 89% 8/9 9.3% top tier
Citigroup 83% 5/6 10.3% top tier
RBC Capital 72% 13/18 4.9% top tier
Wells Fargo 67% 2/3 2.7% top tier

Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls with an average return of 11.8%, placing it in the middle tier. Top-performing firms on JNJ include Raymond James, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Stifel (all 100% accuracy on limited calls). Morgan Stanley (91% on 11 calls) and B of A Securities (89% on 9 calls) are also strong. Leerink Partners (50% on 2 calls) and Cantor Fitzgerald (44% on 16 calls) are below average.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 14, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
+1q $3.02 $2.96 — $3.21 $25.2B ↑0 ↓0
0y $11.57 $11.45 — $11.82 $100.9B ↑0 ↓0
0q $2.85 $2.65 — $3.00 $25.0B ↑0 ↓0
+1y $12.72 $12.07 — $13.47 $107.3B ↑1 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Congressional
Ro Khanna (democrat) — buy $15,001 - $50,000
Congressional
Thomas Kean Jr (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Rich McCormick (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — near_exit (-90.5%)
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — exit (-100%)
Institutional
FMR LLC — add (39.7%)
Short Interest
Short: 1,120,658 | Exempt: 2,751 | TRF Vol: 2,019,459 | Short Ratio: 55.5% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trades: none reported. Congressional activity: one buy (Ro Khanna, $15K-$50K) and four small sells (Thomas Kean Jr, Rich McCormick x2, John Boozman, all $1K-$15K) — net neutral. Institutional changes: bullish signals from FMR (+39.7% to $3.9B) and Norges Bank (new $6.9B position); bearish from Two Sigma (-90.5%) and Renaissance Technologies (exit). Short interest is elevated at 55.5% of off-exchange volume, indicating bearish positioning. The analyst downgrade aligns with short interest and some institutional exits but diverges from the bullish consensus and large inflows from top holders.

Actionable Insight

The downgrade is a contrarian signal from a mid-tier firm, but the bullish consensus and large institutional inflows from FMR and Norges Bank provide strong support. Traders should treat this as a cautionary note rather than a sell signal — the elevated short interest and bearish institutional exits warrant monitoring, but the consensus remains firmly bullish.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

10 reports for JNJ
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 3 of 4 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +6.93%May 31, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for JNJ — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 6, 2026
3d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 3/10
$192.41 $186.39▲ +3.13%▲ +6.03%$232.16 (−20.66%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$227.67 $234.31▲ +2.92%▲ +4.25%$232.16 (+1.97%)
May 20, 2026
21d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$229.12 $231.29▲ +0.95%▼ −0.29%$232.16 (+1.33%)
May 13, 2026
27d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$230.79 $231.58▲ +0.34%▲ +1.06%$232.16 (+0.59%)
May 7, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$192.41 $186.39▲ +3.13%▲ +6.03%$232.16 (−20.66%)
May 5, 2026
5w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$225.50 $221.43▼ −1.80%▼ −3.79%$232.16 (+2.96%)
Apr 14, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$240.01 $225.97▼ −5.85%▼ −7.24%$232.16 (−3.27%)
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$242.34 $238.33▼ −1.65%▼ −5.96%$232.16 (−4.20%)
Mar 11, 2026
12w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$242.95 $237.20▼ −2.37%▼ −0.18%$232.16 (−4.44%)
Feb 28, 2026
14w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 7/10
$248.40 $242.34▼ −2.44%▼ −1.23%$232.16 (−6.54%)
Showing 10 of 10

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