ISRG INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC

MIXED Impact: 1/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 19d 22h ago SEC analyst-ISRG-citigrou-20260311
10 firms acted on ISRG: Citigroup, Freedom Capital Markets, TD Cowen, Freedom Broker, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Erste Group, Redburn Atlantic, Goldman Sachs
Latest settled — T+20d
ISRG ▼ -7.66% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -7.66% · α vs SPY -8.19% · entry $491.53 → $453.87
Next anchor: T+60d in 15d
Currently $438.51 · -10.79% from $491.53 entry
Entry anchored
Mar 11, 09:56 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-2.56%
call -2.56% · α -1.08%
$478.93
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
-2.82%
call -2.82% · α -0.63%
$477.67
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
-7.66%
call -7.66% · α -8.19%
$453.87
settled 6w ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 15d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Citigroup upgraded Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) to Buy from Neutral on March 11, 2026, maintaining its $590 price target. The move came as part of a cluster of 10 firms acting on the stock, though Citigroup’s track record is mediocre at 57% accuracy on 7 calls with a -1.4% average return. The broader consensus is heavily bullish — 71% Buy/Strong Buy among 41 analysts, with a mean price target of $577, implying 26% upside from the current $457.61. Citigroup’s target sits slightly above the mean at $590. Earnings estimates are rising sharply: FY2026 EPS has seen 23 upward revisions in the past 30 days with zero downgrades. However, insider selling persists — Amy Ladd sold $292K worth of shares in late April — and short interest is elevated at 55.5% off-exchange volume, a bearish divergence. The upgrade aligns with consensus and lacks a fresh catalyst, reducing its standalone significance.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
-1
Final Score
1/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
29 (71%)
Hold
11
Sell / Strong Sell
1
Total Analysts
30
Mean PT
$577.01
Median PT
$580.00
High PT
$750.00
Low PT
$378.00
Current Price
$457.61
Implied Upside
+26.1%

Consensus is heavily bullish: 11 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 41 analysts — 71% Buy/Strong Buy. This aligns with the upgrade, making it a non-contrarian call and reducing its marginal impact.

Current price: $457.61. Mean target: $577.01 (implied upside +26%), median $580, high $750, low $378. Citigroup’s PT of $590 sits above the mean and median, implying +28.9% upside — slightly more aggressive than the consensus average but unchanged from its prior target.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-23 Barclays maintain Overweight $651.00
2026-04-22 Leerink Partners maintain Outperform $573.00
2026-04-22 Baird maintain Outperform $610.00
2026-04-22 Piper Sandler maintain Overweight $580.00
2026-04-22 BTIG reiterate Buy $574.00
2026-04-15 Truist Securities maintain Buy $580.00
2026-04-13 Mizuho maintain Neutral $525.00
2026-04-10 BTIG reiterate Buy $616.00
2026-04-09 Goldman Sachs maintain Buy $609.00
2026-04-06 Evercore ISI Group maintain In-Line $480.00

Zero upgrades or downgrades among analysts in the past 30 days, suggesting a calm period. However, EPS revisions are strongly positive: FY2026 EPS has 23 upward revisions vs 0 downward in the last 30 days, and the current quarter shows 16 upward revisions in the past week — a bullish fundamental tailwind.

Firm Track Record — Citigroup

Citigroup accuracy: 55% on 4355 calls | avg return: 4.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Morgan Stanley 100% 3/3 9.9% top tier
Baird 100% 5/5 12.1% top tier
Stifel 100% 4/4 11.7% top tier
BTIG 91% 10/11 14.5% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 86% 6/7 9.9% top tier
Piper Sandler 75% 6/8 7.9% top tier
RBC Capital 71% 5/7 6.3% top tier
JP Morgan 67% 2/3 4.8% top tier
Barclays 67% 2/3 11.3% top tier
Truist Securities 64% 7/11 3.6% top tier

Citigroup has a 57% accuracy rate on 7 scored ISRG calls, with an average return of -1.4%. This ranks below the top-tier firms covering ISRG — BTIG (91% on 11 calls, avg return +14.5%), Baird (100% on 5 calls, +12.1%), and Stifel (100% on 4 calls, +11.7%). Citigroup’s average return is the worst among all tracked firms for ISRG, making this a low-conviction signal.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $2.50 $2.41 — $2.61 $2.8B ↑16 ↓0
+1y $11.79 $10.86 — $12.61 $13.3B ↑23 ↓0
+1q $2.58 $2.44 — $2.75 $2.9B ↑9 ↓0
0y $10.41 $10.14 — $10.76 $11.7B ↑23 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Institutional
FMR LLC — add (31.6%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
FMR LLC — trim (-42.3%)
Short Interest
Short: 391,232 | Exempt: 15,341 | TRF Vol: 704,995 | Short Ratio: 55.5% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trading is bearish: Amy Ladd sold $292K in late April, and other insiders sold in March. Institutional moves are mixed: FMR LLC added 31.6% then later trimmed 42.3%; Norges Bank entered and then exited. Short interest is elevated at 55.5% off-exchange volume, indicating significant bearish positioning. This divergence — bullish upgrades but insider selling and high short interest — suggests the stock faces headwinds despite analyst optimism.

Actionable Insight

The Citigroup upgrade alone is not a strong entry signal given the firm's poor track record and lack of a price target increase. Traders should watch for insider buying or a short squeeze catalyst before adding long exposure.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

14 reports for ISRG
Performance horizon
50% Hit rate 2 of 4 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +9.89%Feb 27, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ISRG — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 1, 2026
19d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 1/10
$491.53 $453.87▼ −7.66%▼ −8.19%$438.51 (−10.79%)
Apr 21, 2026
29d ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$483.42 $441.58▼ −8.65%▼ −11.82%$438.51 (−9.29%)
Apr 21, 2026
29d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$483.42 $441.58▼ −8.65%▼ −11.82%$438.51 (−9.29%)
Mar 13, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$483.23 $467.09▼ −3.34%▼ −7.12%$438.51 (−9.25%)
Mar 3, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$496.27 $460.64▲ +7.18%▲ +2.78%$438.51 (+11.64%)
Feb 27, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$502.05 $452.42▼ −9.89%▼ −2.33%$438.51 (−12.66%)
Feb 27, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$502.05 $452.42▼ −9.89%▼ −2.33%$438.51 (−12.66%)
Feb 27, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$502.05 $452.42▲ +9.89%▲ +2.33%$438.51 (+12.66%)
Feb 27, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$502.05 $452.42▼ −9.89%▼ −2.33%$438.51 (−12.66%)
Feb 27, 2026
11w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$502.05 $452.42▼ −9.89%▼ −2.33%$438.51 (−12.66%)
Showing 10 of 14

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