INTC INTEL CORP

BEARISH Impact: 1/10 ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-INTC-kgisecur-20260420
KGI Securities double downgrade: Outperform → Neutral
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
INTC ▲ +64.49% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -64.49% · α vs SPY -60.28% · entry $65.71 → $108.08
Next anchor: T+60d in 4w
Last close $124.57 (close Jun 12) · -89.59% from $65.71 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
Apr 20, 03:27 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+0.87%
call -0.87% · α -1.52%
$66.28
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+29.34%
call -29.34% · α -28.43%
$84.99
settled 7w ago
T+20d
+64.49%
call -64.49% · α -60.28%
$108.08
settled 28d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 4w

Price Chart

Loading chart...

Executive Summary

KGI Securities downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform with a new price target of $71, implying 3.7% upside from the current $68.50. The firm has a 33% accuracy rate (2/6 calls correct), well below the 57% average among 15 tracked firms. Consensus remains Hold-heavy: 35 of 41 analysts rate it Hold or equivalent, with a mean PT of $52.26 — 23.7% below current price. Despite the downgrade, EPS estimates are rising: 6 of 7 recent 30-day revisions were upward for current year EPS. Institutional activity shows strong divergence — FMR LLC increased position by 90.8% and Norges Bank initiated a $2.2B stake, while Bank of America trimmed by 27.8%. Short interest remains elevated at 42.1% of float. Earnings due in three days.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
-1
Final Score
1/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
13 (25%)
Hold
35
Sell / Strong Sell
4
Total Analysts
41
Mean PT
$52.26
Median PT
$50.00
High PT
$92.00
Low PT
$20.40
Current Price
$68.50
Implied Upside
-23.7%

Of 41 analysts, 13 rate Buy or stronger, 35 Hold, and 4 Sell. The consensus is firmly in Hold territory (85.4%), with only 31.7% Buy-rated. The consensus direction remains stable — no net change in rating distribution over the past month despite recent actions.

The consensus price target mean is $52.26 and median is $50, with a range from $20.40 to $92.00. At $68.50, the stock trades 30.9% above the mean target, implying significant downside. KGI’s $71 target is above the mean and median, placing it in the top 27% of targets, suggesting a relatively bullish stance despite the downgrade.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-20 KGI Securities downgrade Neutral $71.00
2026-04-20 Stifel maintain Hold $65.00
2026-04-16 Bernstein maintain Market Perform $60.00
2026-04-14 Susquehanna maintain Neutral $65.00
2026-04-10 Benchmark maintain Buy $76.00
2026-04-09 Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Neutral $60.00
2026-04-07 Wells Fargo maintain Equal-Weight $55.00
2026-04-06 Keybanc maintain Overweight $70.00
2026-02-13 DA Davidson initiate Neutral $45.00
2026-01-23 UBS maintain Neutral $52.00

Over the past 30 days, there has been 1 downgrade and 0 upgrades. EPS estimates are trending upward: for current-year EPS, 6 revisions were up and only 1 down over the past 30 days. Next quarter EPS saw 6 up and 0 down revisions, signaling improving fundamentals despite rating skepticism.

Firm Track Record — KGI Securities

KGI Securities accuracy: 33% on 6 calls | avg return: 13.5%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Seaport Global 100% 2/2 3.8% top tier
Morgan Stanley 80% 4/5 11.2% top tier
Goldman Sachs 75% 3/4 -7.7% top tier
UBS 75% 6/8 8.7% top tier
Needham 71% 5/7 15.1% top tier
Deutsche Bank 67% 2/3 2.5% top tier
Barclays 67% 4/6 8.4% top tier
Roth MKM 67% 2/3 3.4% top tier
Wells Fargo 60% 3/5 7.5% above average
Truist Securities 57% 4/7 0.7% above average

KGI Securities has a 33% accuracy rate (2/6 calls correct), ranking among the lowest of the 15 firms tracked. The average return on its rated stocks is 13.5%. In comparison, top-tier firms like Seaport Global (100%, 2/2), Morgan Stanley (80%, 4/5), and Mizuho (57%, 4/7) have stronger records. KGI’s call is contrarian in direction but not in valuation, given its above-consensus price target.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Apr 23, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0y $0.54 $0.28 — $1.00 $54.2B ↑6 ↓0
+1y $1.07 $0.50 — $2.00 $58.6B ↑8 ↓0
0q $0.01 $-0.02 — $0.07 $12.4B ↑4 ↓0
+1q $0.08 $0.01 — $0.20 $13.1B ↑6 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Institutional
FMR LLC — add (90.8%)
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — trim (-27.8%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Short Interest
Short: 19,232,817 | Exempt: 90,032 | Total: 45,680,929 | Ratio: 42.1%

Institutional activity diverges sharply from the analyst downgrade: FMR LLC added 90.8%, Renaissance Technologies doubled its stake (+191.5%), and Norges Bank initiated a $2.23B position. However, Bank of America trimmed by 27.8%. No insider trades or congressional activity reported. Short interest is extremely high at 42.1% of the float, indicating entrenched bearish sentiment that could fuel a squeeze if earnings beat.

Actionable Insight

Discount the KGI downgrade due to the firm’s low 33% accuracy and contrarian institutional inflows. With earnings in three days and EPS estimates rising, the risk-reward favors longs ahead of potential short squeeze, especially given 42.1% short interest.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

21 reports for INTC
Performance horizon
89% Hit rate 8 of 9 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +67.16%May 21, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for INTC — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$111.68 awaiting T+20awaiting T+20$124.57 (+11.54%)
May 31, 2026
14d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$48.57 $45.44▼ −6.44%▼ −7.75%$124.57 (+156.50%)
May 28, 2026
17d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$84.54 $121.79▲ +44.06%▲ +38.61%$124.57 (+47.36%)
May 24, 2026
21d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$82.56 $119.87▲ +45.19%▲ +40.70%$124.57 (+50.89%)
May 21, 2026
24d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$66.28 $110.79▲ +67.16%▲ +62.95%$124.57 (+87.96%)
May 21, 2026
25d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$65.71 $108.08▲ +64.49%▲ +60.28%$124.57 (+89.59%)
May 1, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 4/10
$48.57 $45.44▼ −6.44%▼ −7.75%$124.57 (+156.50%)
Apr 30, 2026
6w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$99.62 $109.35▲ +9.77%▲ +4.50%$124.57 (+25.05%)
Apr 29, 2026
6w ago
424B5
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$94.53 $114.62▲ +21.25%▲ +16.03%$124.57 (+31.78%)
Apr 28, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$84.54 $121.79▲ +44.06%▲ +38.61%$124.57 (+47.36%)
Showing 10 of 21

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens in 3h 28m

Subscribe to SecBot

Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence

Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.

Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access