HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.

BEARISH Impact: 7/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed May 5, 2026 Processed 1mo ago SEC 0000793952-26-000029
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Latest settled — T+20d
HOG ▼ -1.80% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +1.80% · α vs SPY +6.76% · entry $25.08 → $24.63
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Last close $24.91 (close Jun 8) · +0.69% from $25.08 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 5, 2026
via day open
T+1d
-5.34%
call +5.34% · α +6.73%
$23.74
settled 5w ago
T+5d
+0.92%
call -0.92% · α +1.07%
$25.31
settled 29d ago
T+20d
-1.80%
call +1.80% · α +6.76%
$24.63
settled 7d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Harley-Davidson reported Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $0.22, a 79% decline from $1.07 in Q1 2025, and consolidated revenue of $1.173B, down 12% YoY. The headline miss vs consensus ($0.23 EPS, $996.6M revenue) is driven by a 54% revenue drop at HDFS following the 2025 portfolio sale and a 3.9-point gross margin compression from tariffs, partially offset by 8% global retail sales growth. Guidance for full-year 2026 was reaffirmed, with HDMC operating income still expected in a loss-to-breakeven range.

Key Financial Metrics

Gross Margin
25.3%

Actionable Insight

The 8% global retail sales growth and reaffirmed guidance provide a floor, but the 85% operating income collapse and negative operating cash flow signal deep structural pressure from tariffs and HDFS de-levering. Watch for the May 2026 strategic plan announcement for any restructuring or portfolio changes that could reset the earnings trajectory.

Key Facts

  • Diluted EPS of $0.22, down 79% from $1.07 in Q1 2025
  • Consolidated revenue of $1.173B, down 12% YoY
  • HDMC revenue down 2% to $1.055B; gross margin fell 3.9 pts to 25.3%
  • HDFS revenue down 54% to $112M due to 2025 loan portfolio sale
  • Global retail motorcycle sales up 8% YoY (33,507 units); North America up 14%
  • Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: HDMC OI of -$40M to $10M; HDFS OI $45-60M
  • Operating cash flow was negative $228M in Q1 vs positive $142M a year ago
  • Repurchased $128M of shares (6.6M shares) on a discretionary basis
  • Incurred $15M in restructuring charges in the quarter

Financial Impact

EPS decline of 79% YoY; revenue decline of 12% YoY; operating income decline of 85% YoY

epsrevenueoperating incomegross margincash flow

Risk Factors

  • Tariff costs continue to compress HDMC gross margins (down 3.9 pts in Q1)
  • HDFS revenue base permanently reduced by ~67% after the 2025 portfolio sale
  • Negative operating cash flow of $228M raises liquidity concerns despite $1.8B cash balance
  • Restructuring charges ($15M) may signal further cost actions ahead

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts
Analyst Consensus
38% bullish (21 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0000793952-26-000029
Document: hog-20260505.htm0000793952-26-000029
Document: 0000793952-26-000029-index-headers.html0000793952-26-000029
Document: 0000793952-26-000029-index.html0000793952-26-000029
Document: 0000793952-26-000029.txt0000793952-26-000029
8-K Data (Synthetic)0000793952-26-000029
5 reports for HOG
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for HOG — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 28, 2026
12d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$24.14 $24.48▲ +1.41%▲ +3.93%$24.91 (+3.18%)
May 5, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$25.08 $25.31▼ −0.92%▲ +1.07%$24.91 (+0.69%)
Mar 9, 2026
13w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$18.77 $17.80▼ −5.17%▼ −3.81%$24.91 (+32.70%)
Mar 9, 2026
13w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$18.77 $17.80▼ −5.17%▼ −3.81%$24.91 (+32.70%)
Feb 25, 2026
15w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$18.64 $19.41▲ +4.13%▲ +5.23%$24.91 (+33.62%)
Showing 5 of 5

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