HD HOME DEPOT, INC.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Stifel upgraded Home Depot (HD) to Buy from Hold on May 21, 2025, raising its price target to $425 from $405, implying 34% upside from the current $317.14. The upgrade is part of an 8-firm cluster action on HD, including Telsey Advisory Group, Bernstein, Loop Capital, Gordon Haskett, Melius Research, and DA Davidson. Stifel has a 75% accuracy rate on 8 HD calls with a 5.6% average return, placing it among top-tier firms. Consensus is bullish: 29 of 46 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, 16 Hold, and 1 Strong Sell. The mean target is $370.21, median $374, high $430, low $310 — Stifel's $425 is above consensus. Momentum is flat with 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades in 30 days, but EPS revisions are negative: 25 downward revisions vs 4 upward for the current fiscal year. Insider sales of $1.6M in March by two executives are a mild headwind, but institutional buying from Norges Bank and Renaissance Technologies provides a bullish cross-signal. Short interest is elevated at 56.8% of float, suggesting potential squeeze risk. The bottom line: Stifel's high-accuracy upgrade into a cluster of positive actions is a strong bullish signal, but the negative earnings revision trend warrants caution on timing.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is bullish: 10 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 16 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell — 63% Buy/Strong Buy. 46 analysts cover HD. The consensus direction is positive, with the majority recommending buying.
Current price: $317.14. Mean target: $370.21 (17% upside). Median: $374. High: $430 (36% upside). Low: $310 (2% downside). Stifel's $425 target is above the mean and median, ranking in the top quartile of targets.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $378.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $369.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $430.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $375.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $340.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $377.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $445.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Guggenheim | reiterate | Buy | $425.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $400.00 |
| 2026-05-20 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $360.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revision trend is negative: current fiscal year has 25 downward revisions vs 4 upward in 30 days; next quarter has 20 down vs 3 up. Estimates are being revised lower, creating a divergence with the bullish rating action.
Firm Track Record — Stifel
Stifel accuracy: 54% on 2792 calls | avg return: 4.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | 100% | 4/4 | 8.6% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 100% | 2/2 | 4.2% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 100% | 2/2 | 6.6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 80% | 4/5 | 3% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 5.3% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 75% | 6/8 | 1.3% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 75% | 6/8 | 4.2% | top tier |
| Stifel | 75% | 6/8 | 5.6% | top tier |
| Telsey Advisory Group | 71% | 15/21 | 3.8% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 70% | 7/10 | 3.5% | top tier |
Stifel has a 75% accuracy rate on 8 HD calls with a 5.6% average return, placing it among top-tier firms. Best-performing firms on HD include UBS (100% on 4 calls, 8.6% avg return), TD Cowen (100% on 2, 4.2%), and Citigroup (100% on 2, 6.6%). Worst: Mizuho (50% on 4, -4% avg return). Stifel's record is well above average.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $4.73 | $4.64 — $4.86 | $47.2B | ↑8 ↓0 |
| +1y | $16.11 | $15.05 — $16.60 | $177.5B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0y | $14.97 | $14.64 — $15.16 | $171.0B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $3.96 | $3.84 — $4.05 | $42.8B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: two SELLs totaling $1.6M in March 2026 by executives Deaton and McPhail — a mild bearish signal. Congressional activity: Rep. David Taylor (R) made three small buys ($1K-$15K each) and one small sell in April-May 2026; Rep. Ro Khanna (D) bought $15K-$50K in April. Institutional changes: Norges Bank initiated a $4.85B position (new), Renaissance Technologies $59M new, Two Sigma $20.8M new — strong bullish institutional buying. Short interest is 56.8% of float, extremely high, indicating potential squeeze risk. The analyst upgrade aligns with institutional buying but diverges from insider selling and negative earnings revisions.
Actionable Insight
Stifel's high-accuracy upgrade into a cluster of positive actions is a strong bullish signal, but the negative earnings revision trend and insider selling warrant caution. Traders should consider the upgrade as a positive catalyst but wait for earnings confirmation before adding size.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 31, 2026
14d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $370.39 $368.06 | ▼ −0.63% | ▼ −1.82% | $328.39 (−11.34%) |
|
May 15, 2026
4w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $297.48 $313.11 | ▲ +5.25% | ▲ +4.29% | $328.39 (+10.39%) |
|
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $318.73 $342.68 | ▲ +7.52% | ▲ +2.19% | $328.39 (+3.03%) |
|
Mar 27, 2026
11w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $321.50 $326.46 | ▲ +1.54% | ▼ −2.32% | $328.39 (+2.14%) |
|
Mar 4, 2026
14w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $368.70 $350.87 | ▼ −4.84% | ▼ −3.50% | $328.39 (−10.93%) |
|
Feb 28, 2026
15w ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $370.63 $353.56 | ▼ −4.61% | ▼ −3.40% | $328.39 (−11.40%) |
US Market Status
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