GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Executive Summary
Three mega-passive institutions (BofA, T. Rowe Price, Morgan Stanley) added $8.6M in GSHD during Q3 2025, while two sellers (Fidelity, Two Sigma) trimmed $1.1M. The buying is dominated by index-fund rebalancing, not active conviction, and the net $7.5M inflow is small relative to the $1.4B market cap. Historical reports on GSHD have been consistently wrong (0% win rate at T+20, avg -15.6%), and the score calibration shows net negative alpha for score 6-8 filings in this segment — this cluster does not warrant a bullish read.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $7.5M
▲ Buyers (3)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BofA | ADD | +76.9% | $17.4M | $3.5M |
| T. Rowe Price | DOUBLED | +1520.5% | $17.0K | $16.0K |
| Morgan Stanley | ADD | +80.4% | $24.1M | $5.2M |
▼ Sellers (2)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity | TRIM | -27.3% | $229.0K | -$111.7K |
| Two Sigma | TRIM | -65% | $1.3M | -$977.8K |
Actionable Insight
This cluster is dominated by passive rebalancing, not active conviction. The buying is too small and too index-driven to signal a thesis change. Given the model's poor track record on GSHD (0% win rate, avg -15.6% at T+20), treat any bullish signal from this filing with extreme skepticism. Monitor for active-manager accumulation or insider buying before considering a position.
Key Facts
- 3 buyers added $8.6M in GSHD during Q3 2025; 2 sellers trimmed $1.1M
- All three buyers are mega-passive managers (BofA, T. Rowe Price, Morgan Stanley) — likely index rebalancing, not active conviction
- T. Rowe Price's 1,520% increase is from a trivial base ($2K → $17K) and is noise
- Two Sigma (quant) trimmed 65% of its position, reducing from $1.3M to $320K
- Fidelity trimmed 27.3% of its tiny $229K position — immaterial
- Historical reports on GSHD have 0% win rate at T+20 with avg -15.6% return
- Score calibration shows net negative alpha for score 6-8 filings in this segment
Financial Impact
Net institutional inflow of approximately $7.5M (3 buyers added $8.6M, 2 sellers trimmed $1.1M) — less than 0.5% of market cap
Risk Factors
- All buyers are passive/index funds — their additions reflect benchmark rebalancing, not stock-specific conviction
- Historical reports on GSHD have been consistently wrong (0% win rate, avg -15.6% at T+20)
- Score calibration shows net negative alpha for score 6-8 filings in this segment
- Two Sigma's trim is the only active-manager signal and it is bearish
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-GSHD-2025-Q3 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $38.44 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
|
Jun 1, 2026
13d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $36.10 $34.37 | ▼ −4.79% | ▼ −4.07% | — |
|
May 22, 2026
23d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $40.00 $37.68 | ▼ −5.80% | ▼ −5.81% | — |
|
May 21, 2026
24d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $41.68 $40.00 | ▼ −4.03% | ▼ −4.62% | — |
|
May 19, 2026
27d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $41.31 $41.37 | ▲ +0.13% | ▼ −0.91% | — |
|
May 15, 2026
4w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $42.14 $41.31 | ▼ −1.97% | ▼ −1.32% | — |
|
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
|
8-K
| $50.77 $48.26 | ▼ −4.94% | ▼ −5.73% | — |
|
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
|
Press Release
| $50.77 $48.26 | ▼ −4.94% | ▼ −5.73% | — |
|
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
|
Press Release
| $50.77 $48.26 | ▼ −4.94% | ▼ −5.73% | — |
|
Mar 25, 2026
11w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $42.08 $41.10 | ▼ −2.33% | ▼ −0.65% | — |
US Market Status
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