GEO 8-K SEC Filing Analysis

Latest settled — T+20d

GEO ▲ +6.31% at T+20d

LONG call ✓ call won +6.31% · α vs SPY +3.52% · entry $22.20 → $23.60

Next anchor: T+60d in 7w

Last close $28.44 (close Jun 12) · +28.11% from $22.20 entry

Entry anchored
May 6, 06:04 AM ET
via Databento tick

T+1d

-4.41%

call -4.41% · α -4.08%

$21.22

settled 6w ago

T+5d

-3.56%

call -3.56% · α -4.69%

$21.41

settled 5w ago

T+20d

+6.31%

call +6.31% · α +3.52%

$23.60

settled 11d ago

T+60d

—

call — · α —

—

in 7w

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Executive Summary

GEO Group reported Q1 2026 revenue of $705.2M (+17% YoY) and GAAP EPS of $0.29, a 107% YoY increase. The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance: revenue to $2.95B-$3.10B, net income to $1.15-$1.25 per diluted share, and Adjusted EBITDA to $525M-$545M. The strong beat and raised guidance reflect successful execution on new contracts won in 2025, including ICE facility activations and expanded transportation services.

Key Financial Metrics

Guidance

$2.95B-$3.10B

raised

Actionable Insight

The raised guidance and strong operational momentum from new contracts (ICE, transportation, ISAP) suggest continued upside. Monitor Q2 2026 results for execution on the $715M-$725M revenue guide and potential further guidance raises. The $359M remaining buyback authorization provides downside support.

Key Facts

Q1 2026 revenue $705.2M vs $604.6M YoY (+17%)
Q1 2026 GAAP EPS $0.29 vs $0.14 YoY (+107%)
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA $131.4M vs $99.8M YoY (+32%)
FY 2026 revenue guidance raised to $2.95B-$3.10B (from $2.9B-$3.1B)
FY 2026 EPS guidance raised to $1.15-$1.25 (from $0.99-$1.07)
FY 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $525M-$545M (from $490M-$510M)
Repurchased 3.6M shares for $50M in Q1 2026
Net leverage below 3.2x Adjusted EBITDA; total debt $1.61B

Financial Impact

Revenue beat consensus by ~2.4% ($705.2M vs $688.5M); EPS beat by ~45% ($0.29 vs $0.20 consensus). Guidance raised across all key metrics.

revenueepsebitdaguidance

Risk Factors

Nwauzor Case appeal to U.S. Supreme Court — potential material liability if ruling stands
Dependence on federal immigration policy and government contracts
Execution risk on facility activations and new contract ramp-up
Higher tax rate (30% in FY 2026 guidance vs 28% previously)

Market Snapshot

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs

Analyst Consensus

88% bullish (8 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

Document	Accession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)	0001193125-26-207484
Document: d122560d8k.htm	0001193125-26-207484
Document: 0001193125-26-207484-index-headers.html	0001193125-26-207484
Document: 0001193125-26-207484-index.html	0001193125-26-207484
Document: 0001193125-26-207484.txt	0001193125-26-207484
8-K Data (Synthetic)	0001193125-26-207484

4 reports for GEO

T+1T+5T+20T+60

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters

Reports for GEO — sortable, filterable
	Type				Now
May 6, 2026 5w ago	8-K BULLISH ★ 8/10	$22.20 $23.60	▲ +6.31%	▲ +3.52%	$28.44 (+28.11%)
Mar 19, 2026 12w ago	DEFA14A NEUTRAL ★ 2/10	$16.43 $18.79	▲ +14.36%	▲ +5.05%	$28.44 (+73.10%)
Mar 5, 2026 14w ago	8-K NEUTRAL ★ 3/10	$14.35 $17.77	▲ +23.83%	▲ +25.88%	$28.44 (+98.19%)
Feb 25, 2026 15w ago	Court Ruling BEARISH ★ 7/10	$14.72 $17.50	▼ −18.89%	▼ −24.12%	$28.44 (−93.21%)

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens in 3h 56m

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