FTNT Fortinet, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Rosenblatt upgraded Fortinet (FTNT) from Neutral to Buy on Jan 29, 2026, raising its price target from $85 to $100, implying 18.6% upside from the current $84.31. The move is part of a cluster of 22 firms that recently acted on FTNT, most of which maintained or downgraded ratings. Consensus leans heavily hold (61% Hold, 31% Buy, 8% Sell across 51 analysts). Rosenblatt's accuracy is 54% on 996 calls with an average return of 8.5%, placing it in the middle tier. The $100 target is above both the mean ($89.43) and median ($90). EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions in the last 7 days for this year and next, though insider selling ($17M+ by top executives in Feb) and institutional trimming (Renaissance -56%, FMR -52%) create headwinds. Short interest is elevated at a 63.2% ratio. Earnings are due May 5, under 10 days away, making this a high-risk contrarian call.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 51 analysts covering FTNT, 6 rate it Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 31 Hold, 4 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell. That yields 31% Buy, 61% Hold, 8% Sell — consensus is firmly hold-weighted.
Current price: $84.31. Mean price target: $89.43 (implied upside 6.1%). Median: $90. High: $120. Low: $64. Rosenblatt's new $100 target sits 11.8% above the mean and 11.1% above the median, placing it in the upper quartile of analyst expectations.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Cantor Fitzgerald | reiterate | Neutral | $87.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | Mizuho | maintain | Underperform | $70.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | Wells Fargo | initiate | Underweight | $64.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Freedom Broker | downgrade | Hold | $90.00 |
| 2026-02-09 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $90.00 |
| 2026-02-09 | BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | $95.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | JP Morgan | maintain | Underweight | $73.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $90.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | Mizuho | maintain | Underperform | $74.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | Wedbush | reiterate | Outperform | $90.00 |
The 30-day analyst activity data shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades, but recent actions (Feb–Apr) reveal a net negative bias: Freedom Broker downgraded to Hold, Wells Fargo initiated Underweight, and multiple firms maintained Neutral/Underperform ratings. EPS revisions are slightly positive: this year had 2 up vs 1 down in the last 7 days; next year had 2 up vs 0 down. Estimates are trending marginally higher.
Firm Track Record — Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt accuracy: 54% on 996 calls | avg return: 8.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | 100% | 2/2 | 3.7% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 100% | 4/4 | 22% | top tier |
| UBS | 80% | 4/5 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 75% | 3/4 | 0.9% | top tier |
| Needham | 67% | 4/6 | 12.2% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 67% | 2/3 | 15% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 67% | 4/6 | 11.4% | top tier |
| Barclays | 63% | 5/8 | 7% | top tier |
| Stifel | 60% | 3/5 | 2.8% | above average |
| BMO Capital | 60% | 3/5 | 9.9% | above average |
Rosenblatt has a 54% accuracy rate (541 correct out of 996 scored calls) with an average return of 8.5% per call. Among peers covering FTNT, HSBC and TD Cowen boast 100% accuracy but on only 2 and 4 calls respectively; Barclays (63% on 8) and Stifel (60% on 5) are above average. Rosenblatt's track record is solid but not elite.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 5, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $2.98 | $2.85 — $3.13 | $7.6B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $3.31 | $2.97 — $3.81 | $8.4B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.62 | $0.60 — $0.67 | $1.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.70 | $0.67 — $0.74 | $1.8B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy: CTO Michael Xie sold $10.5M and CEO Ken Xie sold $6.5M on Feb 2. A congressional sell of $15k–$50k occurred Feb 19. Institutions are trimming: Renaissance Technologies cut its stake 56.2% and FMR cut 52.1%. Short interest stands at 63.2% of volume, indicating elevated bearish positioning. The analyst upgrade diverges strongly from insider and institutional signals.
Actionable Insight
Rosenblatt's upgrade is a bold contrarian call against a hold-heavy consensus and heavy insider selling. With earnings due May 5, the next week is a binary event; traders should watch for any confirmation from earnings guidance before following this upgrade.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 4, 2026
17d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $89.19 $115.39 | ▲ +29.38% | ▲ +26.44% | $128.30 (+43.85%) |
|
May 1, 2026
20d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $81.43 $78.98 | ▼ −3.01% | ▼ −0.65% | $128.30 (+57.56%) |
|
Apr 30, 2026
21d ago
|
Press Release
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
Apr 2, 2026
7w ago
|
Press Release
| $82.53 $76.56 | ▼ −7.23% | ▼ −10.85% | $128.30 (+55.46%) |
US Market Status
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