FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
The SEC declared Firefly Aerospace's S-1 registration statement (File No. 333-296233) effective on May 28, 2026, clearing the way for a 12,000,000-share IPO (4M primary, 8M secondary) plus a 1,800,000-share overallotment option. The company will receive proceeds only from the 4M primary shares; selling stockholders will receive the rest. Pricing is expected imminently, with the reference price at $49.50 as of May 22.
Actionable Insight
IPO pricing is imminent (likely within 1-2 trading days). The 8M secondary shares (67% of the offering) create immediate selling pressure from insiders, while the 4M primary shares add ~$198M to the balance sheet. Monitor the final IPO price and first-day trading for demand signals. The 69% bullish analyst consensus suggests strong institutional interest, but the large secondary component tempers upside.
Key Facts
- EFFECT notice for S-1 File No. 333-296233, effective May 28, 2026
- Offering: 12,000,000 shares total — 4,000,000 primary (company) + 8,000,000 secondary (selling stockholders)
- Underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,800,000 shares
- Company will receive proceeds only from the 4,000,000 primary shares; no proceeds from secondary sales
- Reference price: $49.50 per share as of May 22, 2026 (closing price on Nasdaq)
- Market cap: $7.9B; analyst consensus 69% bullish (3 Strong Buy, 6 Buy, 4 Hold)
- Controlled company: AE Industrial Partners controls majority voting power
Financial Impact
IPO of 12M shares at $49.50 reference price implies gross proceeds of ~$594M ($198M to company, $396M to selling stockholders); overallotment could add ~$89M
Risk Factors
- Large secondary offering (8M shares) from selling stockholders may cap near-term upside
- Controlled company structure (AE Industrial Partners) limits minority shareholder influence
- Post-IPO dilution from 4M new shares and potential overallotment exercise
- Historical calibration shows score-6 filings in this segment have only 29% probability of positive T+20 alpha
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| EFFECT Filing (Primary) | 9999999995-26-001798 |
| Document: 9999999995-26-001798-index.html | 9999999995-26-001798 |
| Document: 9999999995-26-001798.txt | 9999999995-26-001798 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 2, 2026
12d ago
|
8-K
| $43.37 $39.78 | ▼ −8.28% | ▼ −7.58% | $31.87 (−26.52%) |
|
May 29, 2026
17d ago
|
EFFECT
| $46.49 $44.24 | ▼ −4.84% | ▼ −5.10% | $31.87 (−31.45%) |
|
May 29, 2026
17d ago
|
Press Release
| $46.49 $44.24 | ▲ +4.84% | ▲ +5.10% | $31.87 (+31.45%) |
|
May 26, 2026
19d ago
|
Press Release
| $57.28 $49.37 | ▼ −13.81% | ▼ −14.35% | $31.87 (−44.36%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
Press Release
| $31.52 $31.52 | · 0.00% | ▼ −1.38% | $31.87 (+1.11%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
8-K
| $31.52 $31.52 | · 0.00% | ▼ −1.38% | $31.87 (+1.11%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
Press Release
| $33.37 $31.52 | ▼ −5.54% | ▼ −6.34% | $31.87 (−4.50%) |
|
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
|
8-K
| $41.45 $38.54 | ▼ −7.02% | ▼ −6.63% | $31.87 (−23.11%) |
|
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
|
Press Release
| $41.45 $38.54 | ▼ −7.02% | ▼ −6.63% | $31.87 (−23.11%) |
|
Apr 17, 2026
8w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $42.79 $42.09 | ▼ −1.64% | ▼ −0.98% | $31.87 (−25.52%) |
US Market Status
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