DFDVW DeFi Development Corp.

BEARISH Impact: 8/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed Mar 30, 2026 Processed 2mo ago SEC 0001805526-26-000005
earnings-rerun-backfill
Latest settled — T+20d
DFDVW ▼ -6.60% at T+20d
SHORT call ✓ call won +6.60% · α vs SPY +16.02% · entry $0.5500 → $0.5137
Next anchor: T+60d in 15d
Last close $0.3680 (close Jun 8) · +33.09% from $0.5500 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
Mar 30, 10:37 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-9.09%
call +9.09% · α +9.84%
$0.5000
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
+1.82%
call -1.82% · α +2.13%
$0.5600
settled 2mo ago
T+20d
-6.60%
call +6.60% · α +16.02%
$0.5137
settled 6w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 15d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

DeFi Development Corp. reported +442% revenue growth for FY 2025, but revised its June 2026 Solana Per Share (SPS) guidance down sharply from 0.165 to 0.085 due to mNAV compression across the digital asset treasury space. This earnings beat is overshadowed by the significant guidance cut, which reflects deteriorating capital markets conditions and reduced fundraising capacity.

Actionable Insight

Monitor for further dilution as the company's ability to raise capital accretively is severely impaired by mNAV compression. The significant guidance cut outweighs the revenue growth, indicating a deteriorating capital structure.

Key Facts

  • Reported +442% revenue growth for FY 2025, with Digital Asset Treasury segment generating $9.2M in revenue
  • Revised June 2026 SPS guidance from 0.165 to 0.085, a 48% reduction
  • mNAV (market value to net asset value) has fallen over 80% since July 2025 due to industry-wide compression
  • FY 2025 net loss of $(73.8)M, primarily from unrealized losses on digital assets
  • Recent S-3 shelf registration filed just 4 days prior, suggesting a distressed capital need

Financial Impact

Revenue grew from $1.67M to $9.2M (+442%), but guidance cut signals deteriorating fundamentals

revenueguidancemNAVdilution

Risk Factors

  • Severe mNAV compression limits future fundraising ability
  • High risk of further dilutive capital raises to fund operations
  • Unrealized losses on SOL holdings could worsen with crypto market volatility

Market Snapshot

Exchange
OTC
Sector
Finance Services

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001805526-26-000005
Document: dfdv-20260330.htm0001805526-26-000005
Document: dfdv-3302026xexx991.htm0001805526-26-000005
Document: 0001805526-26-000005-index-headers.html0001805526-26-000005
Document: 0001805526-26-000005-index.html0001805526-26-000005
Document: 0001805526-26-000005.txt0001805526-26-000005
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001805526-26-000005
3 reports for DFDVW
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for DFDVW — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Apr 28, 2026
6w ago
EFFECT
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$0.5310 $0.4500▲ +15.25%▲ +20.71%$0.3680 (+30.70%)
Apr 17, 2026
7w ago
S-3
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$0.5840 $0.6000▲ +2.74%▼ −1.46%$0.3680 (−36.99%)
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$0.5500 $0.5137▲ +6.60%▲ +16.02%$0.3680 (+33.09%)
Showing 3 of 3

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