CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Wolfe Research upgraded CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) from Peer Perform to Outperform with a $450 price target, a contrarian call given CRWD trades at $731 — 64% above the target. The upgrade is part of a 34-firm cluster covering CRWD, but Wolfe's 52% accuracy on 451 calls and 4.4% average return place it near the median among covering firms. Consensus is heavily bullish: 49 of 62 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy (79%), with a mean target of $555.92 and median $525. The $450 target sits 19% below the mean and 14% below the low target of $368. Momentum is flat — zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days — and EPS revisions are mixed (17 up vs 18 down for the current quarter). Insider trades show CEO George Kurtz selling ~$235K over three days, a weak negative signal per academic literature. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank added a new $1.7B position but also exited a prior one, while Two Sigma doubled a position then nearly exited. Short interest is elevated at 56.5% of TRF volume. The bottom line: Wolfe's upgrade is a contrarian call from a mid-accuracy firm, but the massive gap between target and current price limits conviction; traders should treat this as a modest positive signal within a heavily bullish consensus.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is heavily bullish: 13 Strong Buy, 36 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 79% Buy/Strong Buy from 62 analysts. The consensus direction is strongly positive, making Wolfe's upgrade consensus-aligned in direction but not in price target magnitude.

Current price: $731. Mean target: $555.92 (implied downside of -23.9%). Median: $525. High: $775. Low: $368. Wolfe's $450 target sits 19% below the mean and 14% above the low, making it one of the most bearish targets among covering firms. The wide range ($368-$775) reflects deep disagreement on valuation.

Recent Analyst Activity

Zero upgrades and zero downgrades in the past 30 days — analyst activity is flat. EPS revisions are mixed: for the current quarter, 17 upward vs 18 downward revisions; for the next quarter, 15 up vs 19 down. Full-year estimates show 1 up vs 0 down. The trend is slightly negative near-term but stable longer-term.

Firm Track Record — Wolfe Research

Wolfe Research accuracy: 52% on 451 calls | avg return: 4.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Wolfe Research has a 52% accuracy rate on 451 calls with a 4.4% average return, placing it near the median among firms covering CRWD. Top-tier firms include B of A Securities (100% on 3 calls, 4.8% avg return), Evercore ISI (88% on 8, 8% avg), and Bernstein (83% on 6, 15.9% avg). Wolfe's accuracy is below these top performers, reducing the upgrade's weight.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jun 1, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: CEO George Kurtz sold ~$235K across three days (May 27-29), a routine-pattern sell that is a weak negative signal per academic literature. Congressional: Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold $1K-$15K in April and bought a similar amount in March — mixed. Institutional: Norges Bank added a new $1.7B position but also exited a prior one; Two Sigma doubled a position (+576%) then nearly exited (-96%). Short interest is elevated at 56.5% of TRF volume, indicating high bearish positioning. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and mixed institutional flows, creating a neutral cross-platform signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status