COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Mizuho upgraded Costco (COST) from Neutral to Outperform on January 5, 2026, as part of a cluster of 10 firms acting on the stock. The firm raised its price target to $1,000 from $950, but the stock currently trades at $1,014.53 — above that target. Mizuho has a 52% accuracy rate on 2,227 calls with an average return of 4.7%, placing it below top-tier firms like Goldman Sachs (100% on 2 calls). Consensus remains heavily bullish: 30 of 44 analysts (68%) rate Buy, with a mean price target of $1,072.16 (5.7% upside). Mizuho's $1,000 target is the 7th lowest among 32 targets and implies a 1.4% downside from current levels. Over the past 30 days, EPS revisions have been positive (5 up, 1 down for FY0), but there have been no analyst rating changes. Insider sales of $1.43M combined with a 60.2% short interest ratio introduce caution. The bottom line: Mizuho's upgrade is a contrarian call given its below-consensus PT, but the firm's modest track record and mixed cross-platform signals suggest limited near-term catalyst.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Wall Street is strongly bullish: of 44 analysts, 30 rate Buy (13 Strong Buy + 17 Buy), 13 Hold, and 1 Sell — a 68% Buy ratio. The consensus direction is decisively positive, with only one sell-side firm taking a bearish view.
Mean price target is $1,072.16, median $1,100. The high is $1,315 (BMO Capital), low is $650. Current price of $1,014.53 implies 5.7% upside to the mean. Mizuho's $1,000 target sits below the mean and median, ranking as the 7th lowest among 32 targets. It implies a 1.4% downside from the current price.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | Telsey Advisory Group | maintain | Outperform | $1,135.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | Telsey Advisory Group | maintain | Outperform | $1,125.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $1,060.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | BMO Capital | maintain | Outperform | $1,315.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | Telsey Advisory Group | maintain | Outperform | $1,125.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $1,000.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $977.00 |
| 2026-03-06 | BTIG | maintain | Buy | $1,125.00 |
In the past 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades for COST. EPS revisions are slightly positive: FY0 estimates saw 5 upward revisions vs 1 downward in 30 days, the current EPS average is $20.46, up from $20.43 a month ago. Estimates are edging higher but at a slow pace.
Firm Track Record — Mizuho
Mizuho accuracy: 52% on 2227 calls | avg return: 4.7%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 2/2 | 9.9% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 4/4 | 7.7% | top tier |
| Tigress Financial | 100% | 2/2 | 6.5% | top tier |
| Stifel | 89% | 8/9 | 6.1% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 83% | 5/6 | 5.5% | top tier |
| Barclays | 80% | 4/5 | 4% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 80% | 4/5 | 6% | top tier |
| Roth MKM | 75% | 3/4 | 5.6% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 75% | 3/4 | 2.6% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 73% | 8/11 | 3.8% | top tier |
Mizuho has a 52% accuracy rate on 2,227 rated calls, with an average return of 4.7%. This places them below top-tier firms such as Goldman Sachs (100% on 2 calls, avg return 9.9%), Baird (100% on 4 calls, 7.7%), and Stifel (89% on 9 calls, 6.1%). Their view is more cautious than the consensus, as most analysts have targets above $1,050.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 27, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $4.90 | $4.66 — $5.14 | $68.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $6.49 | $6.25 — $7.10 | $93.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $20.46 | $19.99 — $21.32 | $298.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $22.51 | $21.64 — $24.64 | $322.0B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: two sells totaling $1.43M (Caton Frates $695K on Apr 1, Claudine Adamo $732K on Mar 9). Institutional activity: Renaissance Technologies doubled its position (+5,221%) to $597.6M; Norges Bank made a new $5.2B entry but also exited a prior position, suggesting rebalancing. Short interest ratio is 60.2%, indicating elevated bearish positioning despite the bullish consensus. No congressional trades reported.
Actionable Insight
The upgrade adds to the bullish chorus but lacks conviction with a below-market price target and insider selling. Traders should watch for a clean break above $1,015 to confirm momentum; a move below $1,000 would invalidate the upgrade catalyst.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 3, 2026
9d ago
|
Press Release
| $969.76 $971.74 | ▲ +0.20% | ▲ +2.80% | $982.35 (+1.30%) |
|
Jun 2, 2026
11d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $954.41 $961.64 | ▲ +0.76% | ▲ +1.45% | $982.35 (+2.93%) |
|
May 31, 2026
12d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $873.88 $888.75 | ▲ +1.70% | ▲ +1.09% | $982.35 (+12.41%) |
|
May 28, 2026
15d ago
|
8-K
| $956.00 $946.10 | ▼ −1.04% | ▼ −1.29% | $982.35 (+2.76%) |
|
May 1, 2026
6w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $873.88 $888.75 | ▲ +1.70% | ▲ +1.09% | $982.35 (+12.41%) |
|
Apr 8, 2026
9w ago
|
Press Release
| $1,029.87 $998.47 | ▲ +3.05% | ▲ +2.99% | $982.35 (+4.61%) |
|
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $996.67 $996.43 | ▼ −0.02% | ▼ −2.91% | $982.35 (−1.44%) |
|
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $996.67 $996.43 | ▼ −0.02% | ▼ −2.91% | $982.35 (−1.44%) |
|
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $996.67 $996.43 | ▼ −0.02% | ▼ −2.91% | $982.35 (−1.44%) |
|
Mar 5, 2026
14w ago
|
8-K
| $997.96 $1,004.91 | ▲ +0.70% | ▼ −0.15% | $982.35 (−1.56%) |
US Market Status
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