COF CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP

BULLISH Impact: 5/10 Institutional Cluster
Horizon weeks Processed 1d 22h ago
Institutional cluster: 22 buyers, 1 sellers (bullish)

Executive Summary

A major institutional cluster with 22 buyers and 1 seller was revealed in Q2 2025 13F filings for Capital One Financial. Vanguard and State Street added over $9B in combined holdings, while Norges Bank doubled its stake to $1.7B. The overwhelmingly one-sided accumulation by both mega-passive and active value funds signals broad conviction in the credit card/banking thesis despite late-cycle credit concerns.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
accumulating
Buy Value
$23.2B
Sell Value
$12.1M
Net Flow
$11.8B

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $11.8B

▲ Buyers (22)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
Vanguard ADD +74.8% $12.0B $6.2B
State Street ADD +63.4% $5.9B $2.9B
Norges Bank DOUBLED +138% $1.7B $1.1B
Eagle Capital ADD +30.2% $1.4B $511.5M
Schwab ADD +63.9% $935.1M $454.4M
Brave Warrior DOUBLED +190.2% $390.0M $276.7M
UBS ADD +53.9% $562.2M $254.3M

▼ Sellers (1)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
Ariel TRIM -35.3% $53.1M -$12.1M

Actionable Insight

The near-unanimous buying among mega-passive and active-value funds suggests a strong consensus around COF's credit fundamentals and earnings trajectory. Given the 45-day 13F lag, confirm whether Q3 earnings or recent macro data (charge-off trends, consumer health) have validated this thesis. The single active seller (Ariel) at a modest trim is not a contrarian signal. If Q3 earnings confirm net interest income stability and credit costs in line, COF could see further institutional accumulation.

Key Facts

  • 22 institutional buyers vs 1 seller in Q2 2025
  • Vanguard added $6.21B (+74.8% shares), State Street added $2.86B (+63.4%)
  • Norges Bank doubled its stake +138%, now $1.70B
  • Brave Warrior nearly tripled holdings (+190.2%) to $390M
  • Only active-value seller was Ariel, trimming -35.3% ($12.1M reduction)
  • Aggregate net institutional buying: $11.77B vs $12.1M selling
  • T. Rowe Price doubled its position but at a trivial dollar value ($520K)

Financial Impact

22 institutions accumulated net $11.77B in COF during Q2 2025, with passive mega-funds dominating the buying. Vanguard alone added $6.21B. Only one active-value seller trimmed $12.1M.

institutional ownership concentrationfloat held by tracked filers

Risk Factors

  • 13F data is backward-looking (45-day disclosure lag); Q2 positions may have been already adjusted
  • Cluster is heavily tilted toward mega-passive/index funds (Vanguard, State Street, Schwab, UBS, Wells Fargo), which may reflect index rebalancing rather than active conviction
  • Credit card charge-off rates remain elevated; any deterioration in consumer balance sheets could reverse this thesis

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
National Commercial Banks
Analyst Consensus
79% bullish (28 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-COF-2025-Q2
10 reports for COF
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate 2 of 3 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +7.39%Feb 24, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for COF — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 11, 2026
1d ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$176.06 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5
May 29, 2026
15d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$187.93 $177.62▼ −5.49%▼ −5.19%
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$16.31 $16.08▼ −1.38%▼ −1.44%
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$16.31 $16.08▼ −1.38%▼ −1.44%
Apr 20, 2026
7w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$205.71 $194.11▼ −5.64%▼ −6.55%
Apr 8, 2026
9w ago
Court Ruling
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$192.46 $202.98▲ +5.47%▲ +1.95%
Mar 25, 2026
11w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$182.12 $181.92▼ −0.11%▼ −1.74%
Mar 16, 2026
12w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$180.77 $184.00▲ +1.79%▲ +3.83%
Feb 24, 2026
15w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$196.56 $193.73▲ +1.44%▲ +0.41%
Feb 24, 2026
15w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$196.56 $193.73▼ −1.44%▼ −0.41%
Showing 10 of 10

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (47h 7m)

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