COF CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP
Executive Summary
A major institutional cluster with 22 buyers and 1 seller was revealed in Q2 2025 13F filings for Capital One Financial. Vanguard and State Street added over $9B in combined holdings, while Norges Bank doubled its stake to $1.7B. The overwhelmingly one-sided accumulation by both mega-passive and active value funds signals broad conviction in the credit card/banking thesis despite late-cycle credit concerns.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $11.8B
▲ Buyers (22)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard | ADD | +74.8% | $12.0B | $6.2B |
| State Street | ADD | +63.4% | $5.9B | $2.9B |
| Norges Bank | DOUBLED | +138% | $1.7B | $1.1B |
| Eagle Capital | ADD | +30.2% | $1.4B | $511.5M |
| Schwab | ADD | +63.9% | $935.1M | $454.4M |
| Brave Warrior | DOUBLED | +190.2% | $390.0M | $276.7M |
| UBS | ADD | +53.9% | $562.2M | $254.3M |
▼ Sellers (1)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel | TRIM | -35.3% | $53.1M | -$12.1M |
Actionable Insight
The near-unanimous buying among mega-passive and active-value funds suggests a strong consensus around COF's credit fundamentals and earnings trajectory. Given the 45-day 13F lag, confirm whether Q3 earnings or recent macro data (charge-off trends, consumer health) have validated this thesis. The single active seller (Ariel) at a modest trim is not a contrarian signal. If Q3 earnings confirm net interest income stability and credit costs in line, COF could see further institutional accumulation.
Key Facts
- 22 institutional buyers vs 1 seller in Q2 2025
- Vanguard added $6.21B (+74.8% shares), State Street added $2.86B (+63.4%)
- Norges Bank doubled its stake +138%, now $1.70B
- Brave Warrior nearly tripled holdings (+190.2%) to $390M
- Only active-value seller was Ariel, trimming -35.3% ($12.1M reduction)
- Aggregate net institutional buying: $11.77B vs $12.1M selling
- T. Rowe Price doubled its position but at a trivial dollar value ($520K)
Financial Impact
22 institutions accumulated net $11.77B in COF during Q2 2025, with passive mega-funds dominating the buying. Vanguard alone added $6.21B. Only one active-value seller trimmed $12.1M.
Risk Factors
- 13F data is backward-looking (45-day disclosure lag); Q2 positions may have been already adjusted
- Cluster is heavily tilted toward mega-passive/index funds (Vanguard, State Street, Schwab, UBS, Wells Fargo), which may reflect index rebalancing rather than active conviction
- Credit card charge-off rates remain elevated; any deterioration in consumer balance sheets could reverse this thesis
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-COF-2025-Q2 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 11, 2026
1d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $176.06 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 29, 2026
15d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $187.93 $177.62 | ▼ −5.49% | ▼ −5.19% | — |
|
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
|
8-K
| $16.31 $16.08 | ▼ −1.38% | ▼ −1.44% | — |
|
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
|
8-K
| $16.31 $16.08 | ▼ −1.38% | ▼ −1.44% | — |
|
Apr 20, 2026
7w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $205.71 $194.11 | ▼ −5.64% | ▼ −6.55% | — |
|
Apr 8, 2026
9w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $192.46 $202.98 | ▲ +5.47% | ▲ +1.95% | — |
|
Mar 25, 2026
11w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $182.12 $181.92 | ▼ −0.11% | ▼ −1.74% | — |
|
Mar 16, 2026
12w ago
|
8-K
| $180.77 $184.00 | ▲ +1.79% | ▲ +3.83% | — |
|
Feb 24, 2026
15w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $196.56 $193.73 | ▲ +1.44% | ▲ +0.41% | — |
|
Feb 24, 2026
15w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $196.56 $193.73 | ▼ −1.44% | ▼ −0.41% | — |
US Market Status
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