CERT Certara, Inc.

MIXED Impact: 6/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed Feb 26, 2026 Processed 3mo ago SEC 0001827090-26-000008
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
CERT ▼ -23.97% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -23.97% · α vs SPY -31.72% · entry $6.80 → $5.17
Last close $5.22 (close Jun 8) · -23.24% from $6.80 entry
Entry anchored
Feb 25, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+4.12%
call +4.12% · α +4.57%
$7.08
settled 3mo ago
T+5d
+5.15%
call +5.15% · α +6.27%
$7.15
settled 3mo ago
T+20d
-9.71%
call -9.71% · α -3.30%
$6.14
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
-23.97%
call -23.97% · α -31.72%
$5.17
settled 20d ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Certara reported Q4 2025 revenue of $103.6M (3% YoY growth) and full-year revenue of $418.8M (9% growth), but adjusted EBITDA declined 3% YoY in Q4. The company guided for modest 0-4% revenue growth in 2026 while investing in strategic initiatives under new CEO leadership, signaling a transition year with tempered expectations despite software strength.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue
$103.6M
+3.0% YoY
Adj. EPS
$0.09
GAAP: $-0.04
Guidance
0-4%
maintained

Actionable Insight

Monitor software booking trends and 2026 quarterly execution under new CEO, as current guidance suggests near-term headwinds despite strong full-year 2025 results and software revenue growth

Key Facts

  • Q4 2025 revenue: $103.6M (+3% YoY), driven by 10% growth in software revenue ($46.4M) offset by 1% decline in services revenue ($57.3M)
  • Q4 adjusted EBITDA: $32.5M (-3% YoY decline) despite revenue growth, indicating margin pressure
  • Full-year 2025 revenue: $418.8M (+9% YoY), adjusted EBITDA: $134.5M (+10% YoY)
  • 2026 guidance: Revenue growth of 0-4%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 30-32%, adjusted EPS of $0.44-$0.48
  • New CEO Jon Resnick appointed, emphasizing 2026 as a 'year of transition and investment' to drive long-term growth
  • Software bookings declined 6% YoY in Q4 despite 10% revenue growth, raising potential sustainability concerns

Financial Impact

Revenue growth slowing to 0-4% in 2026 from 9% in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 30-32% down from 32% in 2025

revenueebitdaepsmargins

Segment Breakdown

SegmentRevenueGrowth
Software$46.4M+10.0%
Services$57.3M-1.0%

Risk Factors

  • Slowing revenue growth guidance for 2026 (0-4%)
  • Declining software bookings (-6% YoY) despite revenue growth
  • Increased operating expenses impacting profitability
  • Execution risk during leadership transition and strategic initiatives

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001827090-26-000008
Document: certara-20260226.htm0001827090-26-000008
Document: 0001827090-26-000008-index-headers.html0001827090-26-000008
Document: 0001827090-26-000008-index.html0001827090-26-000008
Document: 0001827090-26-000008.txt0001827090-26-000008
7 reports for CERT
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 3 of 4 directional calls best @ T+5▲ +11.11%May 11, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for CERT — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 11, 2026
29d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$5.13 $4.56▲ +11.11%▲ +11.03%$5.22 (−1.75%)
May 11, 2026
29d ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$5.13 $4.56▲ +11.11%▲ +11.03%$5.22 (−1.75%)
Apr 22, 2026
6w ago
8-K / PRESS-RELEASE
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$6.38 $6.11▼ −4.23%▼ −4.29%$5.22 (−18.18%)
Apr 3, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$5.46 $5.79▲ +6.04%▲ +1.91%$5.22 (−4.40%)
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$5.68 $5.62▼ −1.06%▼ −5.36%$5.22 (−8.10%)
Mar 3, 2026
14w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$7.24 $6.93▼ −4.28%▼ −3.80%$5.22 (−27.90%)
Feb 26, 2026
14w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$6.80 $7.15▲ +5.15%▲ +6.27%$5.22 (−23.24%)
Showing 7 of 7

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